{"id":37817,"date":"2022-07-04T14:32:41","date_gmt":"2022-07-04T14:32:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/congo-kinshasa\/politique\/independance-dr-jean-paul-k-tsasa-fait-un-bref-apercu-de-la-comptabilite-des-crises-de-1960-a-2022"},"modified":"2022-07-04T15:37:57","modified_gmt":"2022-07-04T15:37:57","slug":"independance-dr-jean-paul-k-tsasa-fait-un-bref-apercu-de-la-comptabilite-des-crises-de-1960-a-2022","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/congo-kinshasa\/economie\/independance-dr-jean-paul-k-tsasa-fait-un-bref-apercu-de-la-comptabilite-des-crises-de-1960-a-2022","title":{"rendered":"Ind\u00e9pendance : Dr Jean-Paul K. Tsasa fait un bref aper\u00e7u de la comptabilit\u00e9 des crises de 1960 \u00e0 2022"},"content":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – Congo Kinshasa. <\/strong><\/span>\u00c0 l\u2019heure o\u00f9 on c\u00e9l\u00e8bre le 62\u00e8me anniversaire de l\u2019ind\u00e9pendance de la RDC, plusieurs Congolais se retrouvent perdus dans un pays quoique ind\u00e9pendant mais o\u00f9 l’\u00e9conomie n\u2019a jamais su contribuer significativement et de mani\u00e8re durable \u00e0 l\u2019am\u00e9lioration des conditions de vie de la population.<\/b><\/p>\n

Du choc post Ind\u00e9pendance (apr\u00e8s 1960) \u00e0 la derni\u00e8re crise li\u00e9e \u00e0 la pand\u00e9mie de Covid-19 (fin 2019 \u00e0 ce jour), passant par les crises d\u2019endettement (1980), aux chocs provoqu\u00e9s par l\u2019instabilit\u00e9 politique et sociale (1990 \u00e0 2006), l\u2019\u00e9conomiste Jean-Paul K. Tsasa d\u00e9crit une image plus qu\u2019\u00e9loquente des effets de ces chocs sur l\u2019\u00e9volution du revenu par habitant de 1960 \u00e0 2022.<\/p>\n

Au regard du graphique ci-dessous, le Dr Jean-Paul K. Tsasa montre que le revenu par habitant a connu une baisse de plus de 10% la premi\u00e8re ann\u00e9e suivant l\u2019ind\u00e9pendance. Ce choc n\u2019a pas persist\u00e9 pendant longtemps au point que le pays a connu ses premi\u00e8res meilleures performances \u00e9conomiques durant la d\u00e9cennie 1960 \u00e0 1970. Le taux de croissance du revenu par habitant affichait une \u00e9volution tr\u00e8s positive.<\/p>\n

En 1975, le ralentissement a commenc\u00e9 \u00e0 se confirmer jusqu\u2019\u00e0 ce que l\u2019\u00e9conomie a \u00e9t\u00e9 plong\u00e9e dans ce que Jean-Paul Tsasa qualifie du \u201cd\u00e9but de la chute\u201d. Cette p\u00e9riode caract\u00e9ris\u00e9e par la crise d\u2019endettement, \u00e9chec des programmes des institutions de breton woods, effondrement de la Gecamines, crises politiques qui ont conduit \u00e0 la protestation et \u00e0 la manifestation des \u00e9tudiants contre le r\u00e9gime en place. Entre 1990 et 1995, cette crise a pris des proportions de plus en plus importantes.<\/p>\n

Pendant ces p\u00e9riodes, la RDC venait de rompre sa relation avec le FMI (rupture brutale du programme d\u2019ajustement structurel) avec comme cons\u00e9quence une forte instabilit\u00e9 politique et sociale. Ce choc, consid\u00e9r\u00e9 comme une crise d\u2019une acuit\u00e9 notable, a occasionn\u00e9 la baisse du revenu par habitant de plus de 10% en 15 ans.(Voir graphique 1).<\/p>\n

De 2000 \u00e0 ce jour, les chocs \u00e9conomiques subis par la RDC ont r\u00e9gress\u00e9 de leur ampleur. En 2008 alors que le monde connaissait l\u2019une des plus grandes crises, l\u2019\u00e9conomie congolaise quant \u00e0 elle n\u2019a subi qu\u2019une faible baisse du revenu par habitant. Cette situation reste semblable au choc li\u00e9 \u00e0 la pand\u00e9mie de Covid-19.<\/p>\n

\u00c0 quand l\u2019\u00e9mergence\u202f?<\/b><\/p>\n

\u00c0 en croire Jean-Paul K. Tsasa, l\u2019\u00e9conomie congolaise doit r\u00e9aliser un taux de croissance de revenu par habitant \u00e0 hauteur de 8,81% par an jusqu\u2019en 2062 pour esp\u00e9rer devenir un pays \u00e0 revenu \u00e9lev\u00e9 \u00e0 l\u2019occasion du premier centenaire de son ind\u00e9pendance. En r\u00e9f\u00e9rence \u00e0 cette classification des pays en fonction de leur revenu, explique-t-il, pour qu\u2019une \u00e9conomie soit class\u00e9e parmi les pays \u00e0 revenu \u00e9lev\u00e9, son revenu doit \u00eatre sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 12 500 dollars am\u00e9ricains par habitant.<\/p>\n

En effet, pour r\u00e9aliser ces performances \u00e9conomiques, il y a lieu de revoir de fond en comble le syst\u00e8me \u00e9conomique du pays. Celui-ci doit \u00eatre tourn\u00e9 vers l\u2019int\u00e9rieur, c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire privil\u00e9gier les investissements, distribuer \u00e9quitablement le revenu national, investir dans le capital humain, ou en somme, investir dans la qualit\u00e9 des institutions et du leadership.<\/p>\n

De 1960 \u00e0 2022, la part des d\u00e9penses publiques consacr\u00e9es aux investissements \u00e0 fort impact sur la croissance notamment, la construction des routes, ponts, rails demeure faible par rapport aux autres d\u00e9penses \u00e0 faible impact sur la croissance \u00e9conomique. Dans une analyse r\u00e9alis\u00e9e par l\u2019\u00e9conomiste Jean Paul K. Tsasa quant \u00e0 ce, il s’est r\u00e9v\u00e9l\u00e9 que, de 2013 \u00e0 2021, la part de ce type d\u2019investissements d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat strat\u00e9gique dans le budget demeure largement inf\u00e9rieur aux d\u00e9penses affect\u00e9es aux primes, frais des missions, titre des voyages, soit une moyenne de 0,29% contre une moyenne de 14,42%.<\/p>\n

Pour rappel, Jean Paul K. Tsasa est PhD en sciences \u00e9conomiques de l\u2019Universit\u00e9 du Qu\u00e9bec (Montr\u00e9al, Canada). L\u2019une de ses \u0153uvres est le livre qu\u2019il a co\u00e9crit avec le Professeur Kabuya Kalala intitul\u00e9 : Macro\u00e9conomie; Fondement, Microfondements et Politiques. Publi\u00e9 aux \u00e9ditions Herman en 2018, ce livre parcours en toute simplicit\u00e9 les \u00e9volutions majeures de la macro\u00e9conomie de 1936 (p\u00e9riode \u00e0 laquelle la macro\u00e9conomie a pris naissance) \u00e0 ce jour, et pr\u00e9sente suivant une approche math\u00e9matique les principaux outils analytiques utilis\u00e9s dans l\u2019analyse macro\u00e9conomique moderne.<\/p>\n

H\u00e9noc Mpongo<\/p>\n

Pour plus d’informations et d’analyses sur la Congo Kinshasa<\/a>, suivez Africa-Press<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – Congo Kinshasa. \u00c0 l\u2019heure o\u00f9 on c\u00e9l\u00e8bre le 62\u00e8me anniversaire de l\u2019ind\u00e9pendance de la RDC, plusieurs Congolais se retrouvent perdus dans un pays quoique ind\u00e9pendant mais o\u00f9 l’\u00e9conomie n\u2019a jamais su contribuer significativement et de mani\u00e8re durable \u00e0 l\u2019am\u00e9lioration des conditions de vie de la population. Du choc post Ind\u00e9pendance (apr\u00e8s 1960) \u00e0 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":82,"featured_media":37816,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,11,10],"tags":[36,47,46],"class_list":["post-37817","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economie","category-homepage-french","category-toutes-les-actualites","tag-africa-press","tag-africa-press-congo-kinshasa","tag-congo-kinshasa"],"yoast_head":"\nInd\u00e9pendance : Dr Jean-Paul K. 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