{"id":80246,"date":"2023-12-05T11:51:24","date_gmt":"2023-12-05T11:51:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/congo-kinshasa\/politique\/elections-en-rdc-pour-gagner-il-faut-plus-quun-programme-analyse-doasis-kodila"},"modified":"2023-12-05T12:25:28","modified_gmt":"2023-12-05T12:25:28","slug":"elections-en-rdc-pour-gagner-il-faut-plus-quun-programme-analyse-doasis-kodila","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/congo-kinshasa\/dossiers\/elections-en-rdc-pour-gagner-il-faut-plus-quun-programme-analyse-doasis-kodila","title":{"rendered":"\u00c9lections en RDC : pour gagner, il faut plus qu’un programme ! (Analyse d\u2019Oasis Kodila*)"},"content":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – Congo Kinshasa. <\/strong><\/span>La campagne a commence\u0301. Si certains affirment de\u0301ja\u0300 haut et fort la victoire de leur candidat, d\u2019autres de\u0301plorent l\u2019absence des ide\u0301es nouvelles pour changer la trajectoire du pays. Ce qui est su\u0302r: a\u0300 la proclamation, il y aura des e\u0301lus. Cependant, les candidats n\u2019ont toujours pas compris que certains e\u0301le\u0301ments du succe\u0300s e\u0301lectoral se de\u0301cident bien avant et de fois quasi-inde\u0301pendamment des candidats. Un effort intellectuel des candidats (ou e\u0301quipes de campagne) dans la litte\u0301rature scientifique e\u0301conomique et politique aurait e\u0301te\u0301 d\u2019une utilite\u0301 certaine. Voici quelques preuves.<\/p>\n

Beaucoup de candidats (pre\u0301sidentiels ou de\u0301pute\u0301s) ont attendu longtemps pour de\u0301clarer officiellement leurs candidatures. Or, ce qu\u2019ils ignorent, le suspens peut certes s\u2019ave\u0301rer inte\u0301ressant et cre\u0301er un de\u0301sarroi dans le camp adverse, mais il n\u2019est pas anodin de rappeler qu\u2019il existe des preuves scientifiques inte\u0301ressantes qui sugge\u0300rent un avantage aux candidats inscrits en premier. Subse\u0301quemment a\u0300 cet avantage, il y a lieu de noter des effets de primaute\u0301 statistiquement significatifs dans de nombreux types de courses aux e\u0301lections ge\u0301ne\u0301rales. Ces effets sont lie\u0301s a\u0300 l\u2019ordre des noms.<\/p>\n

L\u2019ordre des noms des candidats peut influencer les e\u0301lecteurs qui ne sont pas en mesure de se\u0301lectionner un candidat pour des raisons substantielles. Cela peut se produire si un e\u0301lecteur manque d\u2019informations ne\u0301cessaires pour faire son choix e\u0301claire\u0301 ou se sent profonde\u0301ment en conflit a\u0300 propos d\u2019un ensemble de candidats en compe\u0301tition, voyant des avantages et des inconve\u0301nients pour chacun d\u2019eux. Paralyse\u0301s par le manque ou l\u2019abondance d\u2019informations sur les candidats, les e\u0301lecteurs pourraient faire leurs choix sur la base d\u2019indices heuristiques. Dans de telles situations, les donne\u0301es psychologiques indiquent que les gens choisissent souvent la premie\u0300re option parmi un ensemble d\u2019alternatives. Dans une e\u0301tude faite dans l\u2019Ohio par exemple, on a constate\u0301 que l\u2019ordre des noms favorise presque toujours les candidats inscrits en premier, de 2,5 pour cent en moyenne. Dans le me\u0302me ordre d\u2019ide\u0301es, ceux qui be\u0301ne\u0301ficient des chiffres faciles a\u0300 retenir (chiffres ronds), des premiers chiffres dans l\u2019ordre d\u2019arrive\u0301e sur la liste – c\u2019est le me\u0302me raisonnement que pre\u0301ce\u0301demment \u2013 ont plus de chance de be\u0301ne\u0301ficier de cette prime.<\/p>\n

Une deuxie\u0300me preuve: la beaute\u0301 (et le look) du candidat. Une e\u0301tude publie\u0301e dans une des revues scientifiques les plus respecte\u0301es montre qu\u2019une augmentation de la mesure de la beaute\u0301 d\u2019un e\u0301cart type est associe\u0301e a\u0300 une augmentation de 20 % du nombre de voix en Finlande. Cette conclusion sur la prime e\u0301lectorale de la beaute\u0301 a e\u0301te\u0301 observe\u0301e dans plusieurs e\u0301lections au travers le monde. Cet effet ne passe pas seulement sur la photo du candidat le jour de l\u2019e\u0301lection. On remarque dans une autre e\u0301tude que les politiciens a\u0300 l\u2019apparence attrayante be\u0301ne\u0301ficient de manie\u0300re disproportionne\u0301e de l\u2019exposition a\u0300 la te\u0301le\u0301vision, principalement parmi les individus les moins bien informe\u0301s. Et oui, les conside\u0301rations superficielles sont e\u0301galement a\u0300 conside\u0301rer. Il existe aujourd\u2019hui plusieurs e\u0301vidences scientifiques allant dans le sens de la beaute\u0301.<\/p>\n

En somme, alors que cette campagne continue a\u0300 de\u0301cevoir de manie\u0300re ge\u0301ne\u0301rale les esprits les plus affute\u0301s, ces esprits ne doivent pas perdre de vue qu\u2019il n\u2019y a pas que les grandes ide\u0301es qui jouent le jour du vote. C\u2019est la\u0300 que les candidats doivent demander a\u0300 leurs e\u0301quipes de regarder e\u0301galement les articles scientifiques.<\/p>\n

*Oasis KodilaTedika est un e\u0301conomiste et auteur re\u0301cemment du livre Financement du de\u0301veloppement en RDC: diagnostic, opportunite\u0301s et perspectives.<\/p>\n

Pour plus d’informations et d’analyses sur la Congo Kinshasa<\/a>, suivez Africa-Press<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – Congo Kinshasa. La campagne a commence\u0301. Si certains affirment de\u0301ja\u0300 haut et fort la victoire de leur candidat, d\u2019autres de\u0301plorent l\u2019absence des ide\u0301es nouvelles pour changer la trajectoire du pays. Ce qui est su\u0302r: a\u0300 la proclamation, il y aura des e\u0301lus. Cependant, les candidats n\u2019ont toujours pas compris que certains e\u0301le\u0301ments du […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":82,"featured_media":80245,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7,57,10],"tags":[36,47,46],"class_list":["post-80246","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-dossiers","category-to-homepage","category-toutes-les-actualites","tag-africa-press","tag-africa-press-congo-kinshasa","tag-congo-kinshasa"],"yoast_head":"\n\u00c9lections en RDC : pour gagner, il faut plus qu'un programme ! 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