Africa-Press. <\/strong> <\/span>Emerging from the comprehensive crisis that the country has been experiencing for nearly seven years is the circle that Tunisian elites have been discussing, both domestically and abroad, for at least the past two years.<\/p>\nThe confusion among Tunisian elites is significant and profound, despite their consensus on a single assessment: the situation is absurd, on the brink of collapse, and is about to undermine what remains of the state, history, and the cultural heritage of the country.<\/p>\n
However, the agreement on the necessity of exiting this crisis faces a kind of fragmentation in terms of perceptions and approaches related to the scenarios for the upcoming phase. The Tunisian elites, including those who are part of the current government, are not “of one heart and mind.” The approaches regarding possible scenarios and options are varied, if not conflicting, but everyone is searching for two main things in this context:<\/p>\n
1. Ensuring a peaceful transfer of power without violence or bloodshed, or anything that might disrupt the fragile Tunisian situation.<\/p>\n
2. Assuring what is known as the “deep state” and the power-controlling apparatuses that the battle is not against the state and its institutions and mechanisms, but rather a smooth change of the regime to escape the “bottle neck,” especially since the current president has taken enough time, influence, power, and legal authority, and has manipulated the state and society’s apparatuses without changing anything in the social, economic, and political conditions, which worsen day by day.<\/p>\n
What are the scenarios currently proposed in Tunisia to resume the “democratic transition” that the current president has disrupted, nullifying all its components, pillars, and governing laws, as well as the figures who played significant roles in it?<\/p>\n
The street itself does not seem reassuring to the elites as it did 15 years ago. The crisis of trust between it and the entire political class, across its spectrum, has widened, and doubts and questions have prevailed.<\/p>\n
The Street… Once Again<\/b><\/p>\n
Some politicians in Tunisia are betting on the movement of the street and public opinion by stirring up protests and demonstrations in the capital and interior cities (governorates), similar to what happened in January 2011, which fueled the ousting of the late president, Zine El Abidine Ben Ali.<\/p>\n
In this context, there are discussions about attempts to activate the “dormant forces” (social, rights, union, and media activities) in an effort to corner the regime through peaceful civil pressure (demonstrations) and establish a new political reality, aiming to enter a new transitional phase.<\/p>\n
However, the proponents of the “street” do not answer pivotal questions, such as who leads this movement? Are there guarantees that the protests will not spiral out of control, potentially leading to violence, especially in light of the rising social tensions to unprecedented levels? How will the phase following the current president’s rule be arranged?<\/p>\n
In 2011, there was “management” of the protests, and “brakes” were put in place by politicians, the military institution, and the labor union, in external coordination, to lead to the ousting of the head of the regime and then enter a new building phase. Therefore, the elites were keen on the success of the process of overthrowing the regime, and tools for future arrangements formed quickly.<\/p>\n
In reality, the “deep state” is not aligned with this option, unlike what it did before. Today, it is more prepared to prevent any forms of protests that could lead to the regime’s downfall, even if that requires using what is known as “state terrorism” tools to protect the institutional entity, as sociologist Max Weber states.<\/p>\n
Moreover, the street itself does not seem reassuring to the elites as it did 15 years ago. The crisis of trust between it and the entire political class, across its spectrum, has widened, and doubts and questions have prevailed in a toxic media environment that only demonizes this political class, presenting it as a corrupt elite unfit for governance or any future political option.<\/p>\n
Thus, most observers agree that the option of protest remains on the table, but its chances of success, effectiveness, and efficiency are currently limited.<\/p>\n
There are discussions about attempts to activate the “dormant cells” (social, rights, union, and media activities) in an effort to corner the regime through peaceful civil pressure (demonstrations) and establish a new political reality.<\/p>\n
The Military Institution: Fear… and Refuge<\/b><\/p>\n
However, the street is not the only scenario in the whirlpool of the anticipated political transition in Tunisia. Some elites see the military institution as a way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n
The army, in the estimation of these individuals, remained silent about President Kais Saied’s direction towards a coup in 2022, using the tank in the internal hall of the parliament after its closure, in a kind of militarization of the legislative institution, preventing its president and elected deputies from entering it. This solidified for many political actors the idea that the army supports the “July 25” incident, and thus it controls the levers of power and is more capable of entering the “maelstrom” of change without any cost, regardless of its magnitude.<\/p>\n
Proponents of this approach, particularly retired military personnel and some security leaders residing abroad, defend a core narrative: the Tunisian military institution possesses a high national sense and is keen on maintaining security in the country and protecting Tunisia from all external and internal threats. They even see in its relationships with various external institutions and parties a reason for it to engage in the movement for change, as long as it does not harm Tunisia’s interests and preserves its traditional relationships with countries like France, the United States, Italy, and, more broadly, the European Union, which has had a political, economic, and rights partnership agreement with Tunisia since 1995.<\/p>\n
Additionally, this may have encouraged these individuals to activate this approach, given what is known about the Tunisian army’s “neutrality” since the era of former President Bourguiba and its effective participation in the transitional phase after the Tunisian revolution, without seizing power, even though it was available to it and under its command for a large part of it. This places it within the circle of future arrangements without any “cost” in the political, social, security, or strategic sense of the word.<\/p>\n
However, the discussion about the military institution leading the country in the upcoming phase seems logical in light of its lack of political traditions and experience that would enable it to manage the state in this difficult phase. Observers question the extent to which Western powers would accept a military-led government, given the presence of political competencies, experts, and statesmen from the civilian sphere, known as “technocrats.”<\/p>\n
The scenario of military participation in governance, or its leadership, faces significant rejection from many parties and political figures, such as former President Moncef Marzouki, as well as some retired military personnel, like General Moncef Bay, for many reasons, the most important of which are:<\/p>\n
1. Historical experiences of military rule in Europe, Africa, and the Arab Mashreq have only resulted in comprehensive destruction on all political, security, economic, social, cultural, and strategic fronts.<\/p>\n
2. Military rule has historically been associated with corruption, lack of development, subjugation of national sovereignty to external forces, and political and rights atrocities, making reliance on it a gamble whose outcomes are unknown.<\/p>\n
Countries ruled by the military have not established democracy or emerged from economic crises; instead, oppression, tyranny, backwardness, poverty, and hunger have prevailed, despite the enormous wealth available in countries ruled by the military, with the African model being the largest evidence of this.<\/p>\n
It does not seem that the political elites, raised in secular and modern Western schools, are ready to forfeit the civil gains of the country, or what is known as the “civil state,” regardless of the ideological references in this context.<\/p>\n
Undoubtedly, the issue of “the military” will remain on the table with varying degrees and different assessments, but it will not, in any case, be the determinant of the scenarios for the upcoming phase.<\/p>\n
What is happening in Tunisia is part of a dark picture shaped by the elites, who were responsible for “producing” the current model of governance, and today they are paying the price of their tedious conflicts, standing helpless in formulating any possible scenario, as they contributed throughout the decade of democratic transition to paving the way for the chaos that they are currently engulfed in, like poison in an empty stomach.<\/p>\n
External Intervention<\/b><\/p>\n
Amid the search for a way out of the crisis, some parties find no shame in proposing a scenario of “external intervention” through some systemic forces (specifically the military and security institutions) to impose calculated change that aligns with anticipated changes in the region, within what is known as the new Middle East.<\/p>\n
It is expected that the entire Arab region will enter a phase of wide-ranging change in regimes, policies, strategies, relationships, and alliances, based on the current arrangements that began with Iran and will likely extend to the rest of the region’s geography.<\/p>\n
Undoubtedly, those seeking external intervention are few and politically and socially isolated, as they propose what is rejected in the Tunisian imagination to impose an option from within the system, based on regional and Western calculations that aim to preserve the “system” in all its political (repressive), economic (dependent), and international (subservient to France and Europe and their calculations) dimensions, which the majority of public opinion in Tunisia, especially political and social forces, reject.<\/p>\n
Chances of Political Change<\/b><\/p>\n
Perhaps the scenario that occupies a prominent place in the minds of Tunisian elites, despite its complexities and circumstances, is political change without external intervention, without relying on the street, and away from the military institution.<\/p>\n
A wide range of political figures, parties, and some academic and media cadres propose three options in this context:<\/p>\n
1. Forming a leadership council from the opposition, independent political figures, and economic experts to develop a political project for the upcoming phase, which would serve as a pressure tool on the existing authority and a substantive alternative to current policies.<\/p>\n
2. This leadership should coordinate with the deep state to arrange for change in Tunisia without bypassing the system and without resorting to street protests, thereby reassuring the deep state and not seeing it as an indicator of a battle to seize the state or merely to take over power.<\/p>\n
3. Going to early elections after clearing the political atmosphere, releasing political detainees, and entering into political dialogues to arrange for the transitional phase, which would prepare for parliamentary and presidential elections within 90 days, after which power would be handed over to whoever emerges from the ballot box.<\/p>\n
But do the state apparatuses and its solid institutions seem prepared for these political solutions? How will they be implemented? Who will lead them? And by what mechanisms will they be adhered to, amid facts that confirm day by day that the opposition and Tunisian elites are going through a terrible void and seem to lack any political influence or ability to effect any change in the balance of power?<\/p>\n
What is happening in Tunisia is part of a dark picture shaped by the elites, who were responsible for “producing” the current model of governance, and today they are paying the price of their tedious conflicts, standing helpless in formulating any possible scenario, as they contributed throughout the decade of democratic transition to paving the way for the chaos that they are currently engulfed in, like poison in an empty stomach.<\/p>\n
Find more news and analyses on Africa<\/span> on the Africa Press<\/span> website<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"By Saleh Atiya, Tunisian journalist and political writer Africa-Press. Emerging from the comprehensive crisis that the country has been experiencing for nearly seven years is the circle that Tunisian elites have been discussing, both domestically and abroad, for at least the past two years. The confusion among Tunisian elites is significant and profound, despite their […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":84,"featured_media":7286,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[84],"tags":[120],"class_list":{"0":"post-7287","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-articles","8":"tag-africa"},"yoast_head":"\n
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