{"id":13113,"date":"2023-01-20T15:36:02","date_gmt":"2023-01-20T15:36:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/eritrea\/all-news\/will-fragile-peace-in-tigray-endure"},"modified":"2023-01-20T16:37:50","modified_gmt":"2023-01-20T16:37:50","slug":"will-fragile-peace-in-tigray-endure","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/eritrea\/all-news\/will-fragile-peace-in-tigray-endure","title":{"rendered":"Will fragile peace in Tigray endure?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – Eritrea. <\/strong><\/span>Eyes welled with tears of joy, faces beamed with genuine smiles, and hearts brimmed with cautious hope as dozens gathered in Ethiopia\u2019s capital Addis Ababa for a journey that, just months ago, seemed all but impossible.<\/p>\n

Their destination was one propelled to global fame, rather a notoriety, in recent years: Mekele, capital of Ethiopia\u2019s northern region of Tigray, where war, death, and destruction have been unwelcome guests for far too long.<\/p>\n

Since late 2020, Ethiopia has been at war with itself, and Tigray has been the battlefield.<\/p>\n

The conflict is between the Tigray People\u2019s Liberation Front (TPLF) \u2013 known today as a rebel group but a force that wielded unparalleled power in Ethiopia for decades \u2013 and the federal government led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.<\/p>\n

Yet, it has been far more about just them, cascading into a clash of regions and cultures, ripping apart loved ones, and tearing at the very fabric of Ethiopian society.<\/p>\n

After more than two years of devastating violence, peace seems within grasp.<\/p>\n

Hopes have risen after the warring sides signed an agreement in South Africa<\/b> in November 2022, a deal that Ethiopians want to believe has paved the way for some sort of mutual understanding and a lasting solution.<\/p>\n

There are visible signs of progress, such as the crowds seen at the airport in Addis Ababa as flights to Mekele resumed after a shutdown lasting 18 months.<\/p>\n

When the fighting was at its peak, it felt \u201cas if the world had turned upside down,\u201d said Mohammed, who saw the violence firsthand for more than a year before making an \u201cadventurous and life-threatening\u201d trek to Addis Ababa.<\/p>\n

He said the crisis made him feel like a \u201csecond-class citizen,\u201d particularly while trying to \u201cescape from one part of my country to another.\u201d<\/p>\n

The provisions of the November agreement include immediate cessation of hostilities, restoration of basic services such as electricity and telecommunications, unimpeded humanitarian access, and withdrawal of foreign forces, particularly Eritrean troops.<\/p>\n

Another key point is the TPLF\u2019s disarmament and reintegration into Ethiopian politics once the government delists it as a terrorist group.\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b<\/p>\n

\u201cHaving access again to those basic services has given everyone hope. It is a very emotional moment when you get to hear your children\u2019s voices after several months,\u201d said Mohammed, who had no direct communication with his family for months.<\/p>\n

Seeds of conflict<\/b><\/p>\n

In a way, the war started long before the actual fighting began<\/b> in October 2020, as both sides churned out divisive rhetoric and propaganda sprinkled with threats and displays of military might.<\/p>\n

He was referring to the change of guard in 2018 that brought Prime Minister Abiy into power after the nearly 30-year rule of a coalition led by the TPLF.<\/p>\n

Over a year after taking office, Abiy unveiled his Prosperity Party to replace its predecessor, the Ethiopian People\u2019s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), a coalition of four parties representing the country\u2019s most powerful ethnic communities based in its northern and central parts, as well as some 50 smaller groups in the south.<\/p>\n

The TPLF, the then-dominant force in the EPRDF, refused to be part of Abiy\u2019s new political entity and retreated to its stronghold in Tigray.<\/p>\n

The descent into war gathered pace when the TPLF went ahead with regional elections in Tigray in Sept. 2020, defying the federal government\u2019s decision to delay all polls due to the COVID-19 pandemic.<\/p>\n

As the TPLF tried to use the results to further its claim as Tigray\u2019s sole legitimate political authority, the all-out conflict became the only probable result and eventually erupted on Oct. 4, 2020.<\/p>\n

Both sides blamed each other<\/b> for the violence. The government contended that it was a TPLF attack on a major military base that sparked the war, while the rebels viewed the entire conflict as an invasion by Abiy\u2019s government and its ally Eritrea.<\/p>\n

Regardless, their clash for political power has plunged Ethiopia into a crisis of unprecedented proportions.<\/p>\n

According to the latest figures from the African Union, the conflict has claimed up to 600,000 lives and displaced more than 2.5 million people<\/b>, apart from wreaking economic and humanitarian devastation.<\/p>\n

What brought them to the table?<\/b><\/p>\n

The agreement has so far brought about a certain level of calm in Tigray, according to Mukerrem.<\/p>\n

He also delved into what remains a burning question in the country and a source of doubt over the deal\u2019s durability: What exactly brought the TPLF and the government to the negotiating table?<\/p>\n

\u201cExhaustion was the primary factor. This war has been miscalculated by both sides, who each believed they could get a total submission from the other,\u201d said Mukerrem.<\/p>\n

Economic considerations also had a role, with the war draining the government\u2019s budget and rendering it incapable of pursuing any sort of development project.<\/p>\n

Over in Tigray, life was a struggle for survival as the government severed basic utilities and barred essential services such as banking.<\/p>\n

Adding to the internal factors was the erosion of Ethiopia\u2019s diplomatic ties with its strategic partners, including the US.<\/p>\n

\u201cI believe that third parties, particularly the US, played a major role in the negotiations. Not only in facilitating dialogue, but also in designing the terms and agenda,\u201d said Mukerrem.<\/p>\n

As the crisis festered, the US punished Ethiopia with a raft of sanctions, including its exclusion from the US African Growth and Opportunity Act duty-free trade scheme.<\/p>\n

Just a month after the successful talks, Washington named a new ambassador to Ethiopia, a post that was vacant for nearly two years, while its allies France and Germany sent their respective foreign ministers on visits that were clear indicators of rapprochement.<\/p>\n

A fragile peace <\/b><\/p>\n

According to Mukerrem, there is a great need to tread carefully in terms of implementing the peace deal.<\/p>\n

For the deal to last, all stakeholders need to feel included and like they have a part in it, he added.<\/p>\n

He warned of growing voices of discontent and claims of exclusion in regions such as Amhara and Oromia.<\/p>\n

Cooperation is also essential for this agreement to work, particularly on points such as disarmament<\/b> and cessation of hostilities, said Mukerrem.<\/p>\n

For Mohammed, the teacher in Mekele, the withdrawal of Eritrean forces from Tigray \u201ccould be a breaking point if not handled gently.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cUnless the Eritrean government is included in the peace process, it will jeopardize this push for stability in the region,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n

Another problem between the TPLF and the federal government relates to the border of Tigray and its neighboring Amhara region.<\/p>\n

Amhara wants to renegotiate the borderline in a disputed area known as Welqait, a small region of over 1,300 square miles with a population of some 130,000 people.<\/p>\n

The Tigray conflict has also raised constitutional questions in Ethiopia, as one of the TPLF\u2019s grievances against the government is that it is centralizing power.<\/p>\n

Making sure peace endures<\/b><\/p>\n

For Mukerrem, \u201ctransitional justice\u201d is essential to ensure lasting peace in Ethiopia.<\/p>\n

\u201cOne important challenge would be mediation and ensuring justice for the crimes committed by both sides during the war,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Mohammed also urged both parties to \u201chonor their word\u201d while reiterating the need for an inclusive approach for sustained peace.<\/p>\n

Another factor is the structure of the Ethiopian state, which is based on the principles of ethnic federalism, recognizing the autonomous rights, even as far as self-determination, of all ethnic groups.<\/p>\n

According to various analysts, there is potential for more conflict in other regions of Ethiopia unless the issue of federalism is addressed and the autonomy of ethnic groups is assured as enshrined in the constitution.<\/p>\n

This is what Mukerrem alluded to as he warned of a looming threat of unrest in central and eastern parts of Ethiopia, mainly in its largest region of Oromia, where the Oromo Liberation Army, a group the government has labeled a terrorist entity, is gaining ground and influence.<\/p>\n

For now, as peace holds in the north and other parts of the country, Ethiopians are visibly elated but also equally on edge.<\/p>\n

For More News And Analysis About Eritrea<\/a> Follow Africa-Press<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – Eritrea. Eyes welled with tears of joy, faces beamed with genuine smiles, and hearts brimmed with cautious hope as dozens gathered in Ethiopia\u2019s capital Addis Ababa for a journey that, just months ago, seemed all but impossible. Their destination was one propelled to global fame, rather a notoriety, in recent years: Mekele, capital […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":84,"featured_media":13112,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,6],"tags":[242,243,233],"class_list":["post-13113","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-all-news","category-files","tag-africa-press","tag-africa-press-eritrea","tag-eritrea"],"yoast_head":"\nWill fragile peace in Tigray endure? - Eritrea<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Eyes welled with tears of joy, faces beamed with genuine smiles, and hearts brimmed with cautious hope as dozens gathere ...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/eritrea\/all-news\/will-fragile-peace-in-tigray-endure\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Will fragile peace in Tigray endure?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Eyes welled with tears of joy, faces beamed with genuine smiles, and hearts brimmed with cautious hope as dozens gathere ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/eritrea\/all-news\/will-fragile-peace-in-tigray-endure\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Eritrea\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/AfricaPressTunisiaa\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-01-20T15:36:02+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-01-20T16:37:50+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/static.africa-press.net\/eritrea\/sites\/27\/2023\/01\/postQueueImg_1674216810.85.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"828\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"466\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"cfeditoren\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"cfeditoren\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"7 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/eritrea\/all-news\/will-fragile-peace-in-tigray-endure#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/eritrea\/all-news\/will-fragile-peace-in-tigray-endure\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"cfeditoren\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/eritrea\/#\/schema\/person\/068c7ab4e9634ae78ec5d54ec46598bb\"},\"headline\":\"Will fragile peace in Tigray endure?\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-01-20T15:36:02+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-01-20T16:37:50+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/eritrea\/all-news\/will-fragile-peace-in-tigray-endure\"},\"wordCount\":1339,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/eritrea\/all-news\/will-fragile-peace-in-tigray-endure#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/static.africa-press.net\/eritrea\/sites\/27\/2023\/01\/postQueueImg_1674216810.85.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Africa Press\",\"Africa Press-Eritrea\",\"Eritrea\"],\"articleSection\":[\"all news\",\"files\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/eritrea\/all-news\/will-fragile-peace-in-tigray-endure#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/eritrea\/all-news\/will-fragile-peace-in-tigray-endure\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/eritrea\/all-news\/will-fragile-peace-in-tigray-endure\",\"name\":\"Will fragile peace in Tigray endure? 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