Africa-Press-Ethiopia<\/p>\n
The Chinese-financed Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), despite a recent breakdown in talks on Africa\u2019s largest development project, risks powering up a range of downstream tensions and rivalries.<\/p>\n
These run from rising rivalry between Egypt and Ethiopia to a festering border war between Ethiopia and neighboring Sudan. At stake, too, is the future of almost 90% of the water in the Nile River, the world\u2019s longest waterway.<\/p>\n
Egypt, where millions depend on the river for their livelihoods, considers control of the Nile an \u201cexistential\u201d issue. Sudan, meanwhile, fears the GERD may seriously endanger its own dams, which depend on water flowing from upstream neighbor Ethiopia.<\/p>\n
Yet for Addis Ababa, the GERD is a chance to bring electricity to millions who currently live without power.<\/p>\n
Finding a way to address the fears and hopes of all three states has so far eluded negotiators, with frustrated African Union (AU) mediator Naledi Pandor declaring last week that the talks had regretfully \u201creached a dead end.\u201d<\/p>\n
Grand Renaissance<\/p>\n
Nearly a mile wide and taking nearly a decade to build, the US$5 billion GERD is \u201cthe largest development project in Africa,\u201d Ashok Swain, UNESCO Chair on International Water Cooperation, told Asia Times.<\/p>\n
Spanning the Blue Nile \u2013 the eastern and far more voluminous of the two branches feeding the river \u2013 GERD is also the world\u2019s seventh-largest dam and by far the largest in Africa.<\/p>\n
When its giant, 74 billion cubic meter reservoir finally fills \u2013 a process begun last summer and which could take 5-15 years \u2013 the GERD\u2019s turbines could start generating some 6,000 megawatts a year of electricity.<\/p>\n
China has a major stake in the project through the extension of a $1.2 billion credit facility to finance the dam\u2019s transmission lines.<\/p>\n
This is part of some $16 billion in Chinese loans to Ethiopia, according to the US National Bureau of Economic Research, with Beijing far-and-away Ethiopia\u2019s largest overseas investor.<\/p>\n
Yet, a major portion of the dam\u2019s funding also comes from individual Ethiopians, who invested their savings in the project on the premise it would bring great benefits to their country of 112 million people.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhile Ethiopia is divided and volatile at the moment,\u201d William Davison, International Crisis Group (ICG) senior analyst for Ethiopia, told Asia Times, \u201cone of the few things bringing Ethiopians together has been the Nile issue and GERD.\u201d<\/p>\n
The project is supported across the political, ethnic and regional divides that criss-cross this troubled African nation.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe GERD\u2019s electricity has the potential to significantly transform rural areas of Ethiopia,\u201d John Mukum Mbaku, a non-resident fellow with the Brookings Institute and Africa development expert, told Asia Times.<\/p>\n
Electrification can light up school classrooms and clinics, air condition offices, refrigerate food and start up industry.<\/p>\n
With such potential, \u201cThe GERD has become a symbol of national pride and identity to Ethiopians,\u201d says Mbaku, with any effort to obstruct it likely \u201cto be met with a very robust response.\u201d<\/p>\n
Yet just such an obstruction effort has been underway for years from Ethiopia\u2019s downstream neighbors.<\/p>\n
Existential Crisis<\/p>\n
\u201cEgypt and Sudan have been using water from the Nile for centuries,\u201d says Swain, \u201cwith between 86% and 90% of this \u2013 depending on the season \u2013 coming from the Blue Nile.\u201d<\/p>\n
The prospect of this flow being reduced, while also coming under Ethiopian control, has therefore rung alarm bells in these two downstream nations.<\/p>\n
The dam \u201ccould endanger the security and very survival of an entire nation by imperiling its wellspring of sustenance,\u201d Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukri told the UN Security Council last summer after Ethiopia began filling unilaterally the dam\u2019s giant reservoir.<\/p>\n
Shoukri estimated that for around 100 million Egyptians, the Nile\u2019s waters are their \u201csingle source of livelihood.\u201d<\/p>\n
For Egyptian ruler Abdul Fattah Al-Sisi, therefore, \u201cIt\u2019s a question of domestic stability,\u201d Riccardo Fabiani, the ICG\u2019s North Africa Project director, told Asia Times. \u201cFor the Egyptian on the street, there is a general anxiety about GERD and it is important that Al-Sisi be seen to be able to protect Egypt\u2019s interests.\u201d<\/p>\n
While Al-Sisi has so far ruled out military action against the dam, he continues to face a chorus of domestic demands for a tough response.<\/p>\n
At the same time, \u201cThe dam dispute amplifies other, pre-existing regional tensions,\u201d says Fabiani. These include \u201ccompetition between Egypt and Ethiopia when it comes to regional influence, with GERD a major statement by Ethiopia that it wants to be a major regional player.\u201d<\/p>\n
Sudan, meanwhile, was initially warm to the idea of GERD, given that it could help control flooding in the Nile \u2013 a particular problem for Khartoum in recent years.<\/p>\n
Yet, with no agreement on how much water Ethiopia will allow downstream once GERD is operational, Khartoum also now fears that in times of drought Ethiopia might cut water flow to Sudan\u2019s own hydroelectric dams in order to keep the GERD\u2019s reservoir full.<\/p>\n
\u201cIn the last few months,\u201d says Swain, \u201cSudan has been pushing its position much more forcefully. The new regime in Khartoum has been getting more international support and becoming more confident generally, realizing that it can play a greater, independent role in this.\u201d<\/p>\n
Sudan has an ongoing border dispute with Ethiopia over the Al-Fashqa region, north of the GERD. This has seen a hike in tensions in recent weeks, with both sides accusing the other of instigating violence.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt all becomes connected,\u201d says Fabiani, \u201cwith the Tigray conflict, Ethiopian-Sudanese border clashes all mixed up with the dam.\u201d<\/p>\n
African disunion<\/p>\n
Sudan also argues that experts from the AU should be left to come up with a formula for deciding how much water Ethiopia has to release, particularly in drought conditions.<\/p>\n
Ethiopia, however, rejects this, not wishing to be tied to a formal agreement. Egypt, too, opposes the idea, seeing such technocrats as ill-equipped to resolve a political dispute.<\/p>\n
This led to a collapse of the most recent round of talks, with no date set for their resumption. Hopes for a peaceful resolution now hang on several upcoming events.<\/p>\n
\u201cFirst, there will be a change of AU leadership in February,\u201d says Swain, \u201cwith the Democratic Republic of Congo taking the chair.\u201d<\/p>\n
The DRC lies on the White Nile \u2013 the river\u2019s other tributary \u2013 giving it a much greater direct interest than current chair South Africa in the whole river\u2019s future.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Africa-Press-Ethiopia The Chinese-financed Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), despite a recent breakdown in talks on Africa\u2019s largest development project, risks powering up a range of downstream tensions and rivalries. These run from rising rivalry between Egypt and Ethiopia to a festering border war between Ethiopia and neighboring Sudan. At stake, too, is the future of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":84,"featured_media":1322,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,12],"tags":[241,243],"class_list":["post-1919","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-all-news","category-policy","tag-africa-press-ethiopia","tag-gerd"],"yoast_head":"\n