{"id":9664,"date":"2021-12-29T16:58:28","date_gmt":"2021-12-29T16:58:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/ethiopia\/?p=9664"},"modified":"2021-12-29T16:35:39","modified_gmt":"2021-12-29T16:35:39","slug":"to-end-ethiopias-war-biden-needs-to-correct-course-senior-fellow-professor-advise-usa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/ethiopia\/all-news\/to-end-ethiopias-war-biden-needs-to-correct-course-senior-fellow-professor-advise-usa","title":{"rendered":"To End Ethiopia\u2019s War, Biden Needs to Correct Course: Senior Fellow, Professor Advise USA"},"content":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – Ethiopia. <\/strong><\/span>s Ababa December 29\/2021\/ENA\/ The Biden Administration needs to correct course to end Ethiopia\u2019s war, Senior Fellow Bronwyn Bruton and International Security Professor Ann Fitz-Gerald wrote on \u201cForeign Policy\u201d.<\/p>\n

In an in-depth article they wrote to the magazine, Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council\u2019s Africa Center and the Director of the Balsillie School of International Affairs, Bronwyn Bruton, and Wilfrid Laurier University Professor of International Security, Ann Fitz-Gerald, analyzed the situation in Ethiopia during the past three years in general and the current situation in the country in particular.<\/p>\n

According to them, \u201cWashington has now an opportunity to create the conditions for peace.\u201d Knowing Washington\u2019s checkered past, many Ethiopians have not unreasonably interpreted Western media bias, and the Biden Administration\u2019s punitive measures against the Ethiopian authorities as a deliberate effort to whitewash TPLF\u2019s crimes in the name of counterterrorism, they noted.<\/p>\n

The scholars further elaborated that many Ethiopians even fear that Washington actively backs the insurgency and is seeking a Libya-Iraq-Somalia-style intervention to shatter Ethiopia and the new efforts for regional peace that Abiy, for many, has come to represent.<\/p>\n

Western media reporting has tended to depict Abiy\u2014incorrectly\u2014as both instigator and driver of the war. On the contrary, the TPLF was found at the start of the war to possess militia and weaponry that most experts assessed as equivalent, or better, than those of the federal army, they revealed.<\/p>\n

Furthermore, they said the United States has been losing ground in Africa to China, Russia, Turkey, and the Gulf states for some time. But now, there\u2019s not a single nation in the geo-strategically vital Horn region that is reliably in Washington\u2019s corner. As a new cold war heats up, that bodes poorly for U.S. President Joe Biden.<\/p>\n

The \u201cU.S. policy is in tatter; there\u2019s not a single nation in the geo-strategically vital Horn region that is reliably in Washington\u2019s corner.\u201d<\/p>\n

Moreover, they stated that Washington needs to subdue its nostalgia for the TPLF dictatorship and embrace, instead, Ethiopia\u2019s transition into a fragile post-conflict democracy, the scholars advised.<\/p>\n

The U.S. needs to stop blaming Abiy for the inevitable explosion of decades\u2019 worth of pent-up ethnic animosities and acknowledge that some part of the immense devastation of this war is due to Washington\u2019s own careless funding, and political backing, of an authoritarian regime.<\/p>\n

Critically, the U.S. government also needs to be far more prudent in its handling of the Egypt-Ethiopia conflict over the GERD, and acknowledge that the GERD\u2019s potential for meaningful regional-led development will only bring scale to the last decade\u2019s worth of international funded development in the Horn of Africa.<\/p>\n

The Biden Administration also urgently needs to develop a better understanding of Ethiopia\u2019s domestic political landscape \u2014 including the basis of dissatisfaction felt by some Oromo groups, and the impact of the TPLF\u2019s historical, unconstitutional land seizures \u2014 and stop making impossible demands.<\/p>\n

The prime minister cannot, for example, agree to negotiate with the TPLF, which has been declared a terrorist group by the parliament; popular anger at the rebels is so inflamed that a compromise of that magnitude would significantly destabilize Abiy\u2019s government, the experts underscored.<\/p>\n

\u201cU.S. calls for both negotiations and inclusive dialogue are also incompatible, as the former afford exclusivity to one group and undermine the national, unified aspect of a dialogue,\u201d they added.<\/p>\n

Washington also can\u2019t just double down on punitive actions that have so far done nothing to shorten or de-escalate the conflict. U.S. officials have already shot off the biggest arrow in their quiver: against the of congressional leaders, they have kicked Ethiopia out of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), throwing tens of thousands of low-wage female workers out of their jobs. Abiy hasn\u2019t flinched. Doubling down on a failed strategy won\u2019t work, the scholars elaborated.<\/p>\n

They said, \u201cEven if U.S. officials could bring Abiy to the table, there is no reason to believe \u2014 as Washington seems to \u2014 that a political settlement with the TPLF would not lead, as in South Sudan, to rounds and rounds of increasingly destructive warfare as the insurgent group rips up every peace deal it makes in its efforts to retake power. As horrific as this war is, the next one promises to be worse.\u201d<\/p>\n

According to the writers, calling for the surrender of key TPLF leaders will help to reassure Ethiopians that the United States is not backing the insurgency or seeking the overthrow of the Ethiopian government. Decisive action on that front is needed, not least to combat outrage over of discussions between senior U.S. analysts and former diplomats and the TPLF on plans to overthrow and replace the Abiy government.<\/p>\n

If these TPLF leaders refuse to surrender in the interest of peace, the United States should apply sanctions. Unlike Abiy, the TPLF\u2019s leaders have both assets and family overseas and would be vulnerable to pressure put on their fortunes. Sanctions would also send a firm message to anyone planning future insurgencies, they noted.<\/p>\n

Both the Ethiopian and Eritrean people are set to bear the costs of U.S. efforts to punish their governments \u2014 Eritreans through sanctions and Ethiopia through loss of its access to AGOA. It is not lost on anyone that the only party that has faced no consequences from Washington is the one that started, expanded, and prolonged the war.<\/p>\n

In the interest of peace, Abiy should, in turn, be encouraged to declare amnesty for the TPLF rank-and-file who were coerced into fighting (he has offered such amnesty). Whether to lift the terrorist designation on the TPLF is a matter in the hands of Ethiopia\u2019s parliament, and thus probably beyond the reach of U.S. persuasion.<\/p>\n

But if it were to call for surrender of the TPLF leadership, the United States might at least be positioned to exert some constructive influence on peace talks between the Ethiopian federal government and Tigray, including which parties and individuals are included in those talks \u2014especially if it offers to help foot the reconstruction bills.<\/p>\n

Abiy has already initiated plans for a comprehensive and inclusive that involve representatives from the TPLF, depending on the group\u2019s next moves). These discussions will be organized by an independent committee and will address \u201call agendas,\u201d including a constitutional referendum. But again, U.S. or EU engagement in these talks, even as observers, is unlikely to be welcome without a visible course correction.<\/p>\n

The scholars stressed that U.S. support will be needed to chart this difficult path. With economic growth based on inclusion and not ethnic segregation, Ethiopia may become a real bulwark of stability\u2014one whose peace is based on inclusive prosperity, not bloody repression.<\/p>\n

For More News And Analysis About Ethiopia<\/a> Follow Africa-Press<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – Ethiopia. s Ababa December 29\/2021\/ENA\/ The Biden Administration needs to correct course to end Ethiopia\u2019s war, Senior Fellow Bronwyn Bruton and International Security Professor Ann Fitz-Gerald wrote on \u201cForeign Policy\u201d. In an in-depth article they wrote to the magazine, Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council\u2019s Africa Center and the Director of the Balsillie […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":84,"featured_media":9663,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,8,12],"tags":[233,277,235],"class_list":["post-9664","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-all-news","category-homepage-english","category-policy","tag-africa-press","tag-africa-press-ethiopia-2","tag-ethiopia"],"yoast_head":"\nTo End Ethiopia\u2019s War, Biden Needs to Correct Course: Senior Fellow, Professor Advise USA - Ethiopia<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"s Ababa December 29\/2021\/ENA\/ The Biden Administration needs to correct course to end Ethiopia\u2019s war, Senior Fellow Bron ...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/ethiopia\/all-news\/to-end-ethiopias-war-biden-needs-to-correct-course-senior-fellow-professor-advise-usa\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"To End Ethiopia\u2019s War, Biden Needs to Correct Course: Senior Fellow, Professor Advise USA\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"s Ababa December 29\/2021\/ENA\/ The Biden Administration needs to correct course to end Ethiopia\u2019s war, Senior Fellow Bron ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/ethiopia\/all-news\/to-end-ethiopias-war-biden-needs-to-correct-course-senior-fellow-professor-advise-usa\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Ethiopia\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/AfricaPressTunisiaa\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2021-12-29T16:58:28+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/static.africa-press.net\/ethiopia\/sites\/50\/2021\/12\/img-61cc8e44d28ff.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"720\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"822\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"cfeditoren\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"cfeditoren\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"6 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/ethiopia\/all-news\/to-end-ethiopias-war-biden-needs-to-correct-course-senior-fellow-professor-advise-usa#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/ethiopia\/all-news\/to-end-ethiopias-war-biden-needs-to-correct-course-senior-fellow-professor-advise-usa\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"cfeditoren\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/ethiopia\/#\/schema\/person\/068c7ab4e9634ae78ec5d54ec46598bb\"},\"headline\":\"To End Ethiopia\u2019s War, Biden Needs to Correct Course: Senior Fellow, Professor Advise USA\",\"datePublished\":\"2021-12-29T16:58:28+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/ethiopia\/all-news\/to-end-ethiopias-war-biden-needs-to-correct-course-senior-fellow-professor-advise-usa\"},\"wordCount\":1152,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/ethiopia\/all-news\/to-end-ethiopias-war-biden-needs-to-correct-course-senior-fellow-professor-advise-usa#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/static.africa-press.net\/ethiopia\/sites\/50\/2021\/12\/img-61cc8e44d28ff.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Africa Press\",\"Africa Press-Ethiopia\",\"ethiopia\"],\"articleSection\":[\"all news\",\"homepage-english\",\"policy\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/ethiopia\/all-news\/to-end-ethiopias-war-biden-needs-to-correct-course-senior-fellow-professor-advise-usa#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/ethiopia\/all-news\/to-end-ethiopias-war-biden-needs-to-correct-course-senior-fellow-professor-advise-usa\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/ethiopia\/all-news\/to-end-ethiopias-war-biden-needs-to-correct-course-senior-fellow-professor-advise-usa\",\"name\":\"To End Ethiopia\u2019s War, Biden Needs to Correct Course: Senior Fellow, Professor Advise USA - 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