Africa-Press. <\/strong> <\/span>La Somalie a annonce\u0301 une de\u0301cision interdisant le passage des navires israe\u0301liens par le de\u0301troit de Bab el-Mandeb, une mesure qualifie\u0301e de re\u0301ponse directe a\u0300 la reconnaissance par “Israe\u0308l” de la re\u0301gion du Somaliland et a\u0300 la nomination d’un ambassadeur dans cette re\u0301gion. L’ambassadeur somalien en E\u0301thiopie et aupre\u0300s de l’Union africaine, Abdallah Warfa, a averti que toute inge\u0301rence dans la souverainete\u0301 somalienne serait confronte\u0301e a\u0300 des conse\u0301quences, de\u0301clarant: “Tout pays intervenant dans les affaires internes de la Somalie et nuisant a\u0300 l’inte\u0301grite\u0301 de son territoire et a\u0300 sa souverainete\u0301 fera face a\u0300 de graves conse\u0301quences, y compris des restrictions potentielles sur l’acce\u0300s au de\u0301troit de Bab el-Mandeb.”<\/p>\nLa question est: que signifie la de\u0301cision de la Somalie? La Somalie a-t-elle la capacite\u0301 re\u0301elle de mettre en \u0153uvre l’interdiction du passage des navires israe\u0301liens a\u0300 Bab el-Mandeb? Quelles sont les implications de cette de\u0301cision dans le contexte des e\u0301ve\u0301nements de la guerre contre l’Iran?<\/p>\n
Il peut sembler a\u0300 premie\u0300re vue que la Somalie ne peut pas menacer militairement “Israe\u0308l” en raison de l’e\u0301cart des rapports de force. Cependant, cibler les navires israe\u0301liens a\u0300 Bab el-Mandeb ne ne\u0301cessite pas de grandes diffe\u0301rences de puissance, quelques petites embarcations rapides suffisent, surtout dans une re\u0301gion connue pour la piraterie maritime. La Somalie n’a pas pre\u0301tendu qu’elle fermerait Bab el-Mandeb, mais a de\u0301clare\u0301 que sa de\u0301cision e\u0301tait limite\u0301e a\u0300 certaines zones dans le golfe d’Aden et la mer Rouge, c’est-a\u0300-dire les entre\u0301es du de\u0301troit de Bab el-Mandeb, et que la de\u0301cision ne concernait que les navires israe\u0301liens. En pratique, cela est possible et re\u0301alisable, et la Somalie peut le mettre en \u0153uvre.<\/p>\n
Il est vrai que les estimations selon lesquelles la menace de la Somalie envers “Israe\u0308l” est d’impact limite\u0301 sont correctes. Cependant, la de\u0301cision somalienne ne se limite pas a\u0300 un aspect militaire ; elle repre\u0301sente une position politique plus qu’une action militaire, et par conse\u0301quent, sa signification symbolique, strate\u0301gique et politique est plus grande et plus grave qu’une simple menace de force militaire.<\/p>\n
La de\u0301cision de la Somalie signifie qu’un nouvel acteur africain re\u0301gional, me\u0302me s’il est de force limite\u0301e, a rejoint la menace a\u0300 la navigation lie\u0301e a\u0300 “Israe\u0308l”. Cela signifie que le champ de la menace s’est e\u0301largi et ne se limite plus a\u0300 l’Iran et a\u0300 ses allie\u0301s traditionnels, mais est devenu un phe\u0301nome\u0300ne re\u0301gional en cours d’e\u0301volution et e\u0301tendu, et que de nouveaux acteurs re\u0301gionaux ont rejoint cet axe, me\u0302me s’ils ne sont pas des allie\u0301s traditionnels. La mer Rouge, que “Israe\u0308l” souhaitait contro\u0302ler et occuper, est de\u0301sormais un lieu de menace de\u0301clare\u0301e.<\/p>\n
L’escalade et la menace de la Somalie dans les entre\u0301es de Bab el-Mandeb et dans la mer Rouge, qui ont une valeur ge\u0301ographique et strate\u0301gique reliant l’Asie et l’Europe via le canal de Suez, et qui constituent une arte\u0300re mondiale strate\u0301gique ou\u0300 se croisent les inte\u0301re\u0302ts des grandes puissances, signifient que toute menace, me\u0302me limite\u0301e, augmentera le cou\u0302t de l’assurance et poussera les entreprises de transport maritime a\u0300 revoir leurs calculs, plac\u0327ant le monde au bord d’une crise e\u0301nerge\u0301tique qui pourrait e\u0301voluer en une crise e\u0301conomique mondiale.<\/p>\n
Le discours de la Somalie et sa menace envers les navires israe\u0301liens de\u0301passent la dimension militaire directe pour atteindre des dimensions politiques strate\u0301giques non conventionnelles. La traduction de cette menace pourrait conduire a\u0300 la construction de nouvelles relations d’alliance entre Mogadiscio et Sanaa, et pourrait e\u0301voluer vers des relations d’alliance entre Mogadiscio et Te\u0301he\u0301ran. Cela ne se traduira pas seulement par une menace pour les navires israe\u0301liens, mais signifie qu’une alliance maritime s’e\u0301tendant de Bab el-Mandeb au de\u0301troit d’Ormuz pourrait se former, plac\u0327ant les inte\u0301re\u0302ts ame\u0301ricains et israe\u0301liens dans l’\u0153il de la tempe\u0302te.<\/p>\n
D’autre part, la signification de la de\u0301cision de menace somalienne, me\u0302me si ses effets militaires sont limite\u0301s, en tant que discours me\u0301diatique et position politique, signifie que les re\u0302ves de Netanyahu et ses promesses de pe\u0301ne\u0301trer le continent africain et de s’y infiltrer se sont e\u0301vapore\u0301s. Ils sont de\u0301sormais confronte\u0301s a\u0300 des avertissements et des menaces de la Somalie, que Netanyahu pensait e\u0302tre un flanc faible sur lequel il pourrait s’implanter et l’extorquer par la reconnaissance de la re\u0301gion du Somaliland. Cette e\u0301valuation a\u0300 court terme, au lieu de garantir a\u0300 “Israe\u0308l” une position sur la co\u0302te de la mer Rouge, l’a place\u0301e dans la ligne de mire de la Somalie a\u0300 distance ze\u0301ro.<\/p>\n
Retrouvez plus d\u2019actualit\u00e9s et d\u2019analyses sur l\u2019Afrique<\/span> sur le site Africa Press<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Thabit Al-Amour, chercheur en sciences politiques et relations internationales Africa-Press. La Somalie a annonce\u0301 une de\u0301cision interdisant le passage des navires israe\u0301liens par le de\u0301troit de Bab el-Mandeb, une mesure qualifie\u0301e de re\u0301ponse directe a\u0300 la reconnaissance par “Israe\u0308l” de la re\u0301gion du Somaliland et a\u0300 la nomination d’un ambassadeur dans cette re\u0301gion. L’ambassadeur somalien […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":82,"featured_media":5368,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[75],"tags":[240],"class_list":["post-5369","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-articles","tag-lafrique"],"yoast_head":"\n
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