{"id":24304,"date":"2023-08-06T23:46:36","date_gmt":"2023-08-06T23:46:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/gabon\/politique\/notation-fitch-ratings-le-gabon-passe-de-stable-a-positive-et-b"},"modified":"2023-08-06T23:59:48","modified_gmt":"2023-08-06T23:59:48","slug":"notation-fitch-ratings-le-gabon-passe-de-stable-a-positive-et-b","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/gabon\/economie\/notation-fitch-ratings-le-gabon-passe-de-stable-a-positive-et-b","title":{"rendered":"Notation Fitch Ratings : le Gabon passe de stable \u00e0 positive et \u00abB-\u00bb"},"content":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – Gabon. <\/strong><\/span>Des faiblesses persistantes en matie\u0300re de gestion des finances publiques ont e\u0301te\u0301 note\u0301es au Gabon. L\u2019agence de notation financie\u0300re Fitch Ratings a re\u0301vise\u0301 les perspectives de la notation de de\u0301faut des e\u0301metteurs en devises e\u0301trange\u0300res (IDR) a\u0300 long terme du Gabon, passant de stable a\u0300 positive et a confirme\u0301 l\u2019IDR a\u0300 \u00abB -\u00bb. <\/b><\/p>\n

L\u2019agence de notation financie\u0300re Fitch Ratings a annonce\u0301, le 5 aou\u0302t 2023, avoir re\u0301vise\u0301 ses perspectives pour la note du Gabon, de stable a\u0300 positive, et a confirme\u0301 l\u2019IDR a\u0300 \u00abB \u2013\u00bb en raison de de\u0301faut des e\u0301metteurs en devises e\u0301trange\u0300res (IDR) a\u0300 long terme du pays. Selon l\u2019agence, cette re\u0301vision des perspectives refle\u0300te les faiblesses persistantes du Gabon en matie\u0300re de gestion des finances publiques et l\u2019arre\u0302t des re\u0301formes structurelles, y compris dans le programme du FMI, soulevant des doutes sur la capacite\u0301 du pays a\u0300 re\u0301duire les risques lie\u0301s a\u0300 la GFP (Gestion re\u0301siliente des finances publiques).<\/p>\n

Selon Fitch Ratings le classement \u00ab B- \u00bb e\u0301quilibre le PIB par habitant e\u0301leve\u0301 du Gabon et l\u2019attente des autorite\u0301s selon laquelle la dette publique\/PIB restera sur une tendance a\u0300 la baisse, soutenue par les prix e\u0301leve\u0301s du pe\u0301trole et une meilleure mobilisation des revenus non pe\u0301troliers, contre une de\u0301pendance aux revenus pe\u0301troliers et un faible enregistrement PFM.<\/p>\n

\u00abLe Gabon continue de faire face a\u0300 des de\u0301fis en matie\u0300re de GFP, comme en te\u0301moigne l\u2019accumulation continue d\u2019arrie\u0301re\u0301s exte\u0301rieurs en 2022 (39 milliards FCFA ; 0,3 % du PIB) et 2023 (81,4 milliards FCFA, 0,6 % du PIB a\u0300 fin mars 2023) et l\u2019impossibilite\u0301 d\u2019obtenir des financements multilate\u0301raux. Les faiblesses de la GFP continueront de peser sur les notations et pourraient poser des risques permanents pour le financement budge\u0301taire en raison des proble\u0300mes persistants de coordination entre la gestion du Tre\u0301sor et le bureau de la dette\u00bb, souligne le rapport. Toutefois, Fitch Ratings admet que le Gabon a l\u2019habitude de rembourser a\u0300 temps ses inte\u0301re\u0302ts et son capital sur les euro-obligations, malgre\u0301 l\u2019accumulation d\u2019arrie\u0301re\u0301s envers d\u2019autres cre\u0301anciers exte\u0301rieurs.<\/p>\n

Face aux risques de financement du pays, l\u2019agence de notation pre\u0301voit des besoins de financement budge\u0301taire, qui s\u2019e\u0301le\u0300veront en moyenne a\u0300 7,2 % du PIB en 2024-25. Une situation qui pourrait trouver des solutions aupre\u0300s du FMI, le soutien public au cre\u0301dit et le financement inte\u0301rieur. \u00abLe gouvernement devra peut-e\u0302tre re\u0301duire les de\u0301penses si les sources de financement externes ne se mate\u0301rialisent pas ou si les revenus sont moins performants\u00bb, conseille Fitch Ratings.<\/p>\n

Dans le me\u0302me ordre d\u2019ide\u0301es, l\u2019agence ame\u0301ricaine e\u0301voque des risques de de\u0301rapage budge\u0301taire importants en raison des e\u0301lections, qui accroi\u0302t l\u2019incertitude quant a\u0300 la trajectoire budge\u0301taire. Cela pourrait entrai\u0302ner une augmentation des de\u0301penses publiques et des retards dans la re\u0301duction des exone\u0301rations fiscales et des subventions. Les subventions aux carburants, estime\u0301es a\u0300 150 milliards FCFA en 2022, sont projete\u0301es a\u0300 45 milliards FCFA dans le LFI23. \u00abCependant, nous supposons des subventions plus importantes pour le carburant, car les efforts pour les re\u0301duire sont peu probables dans ce contexte e\u0301lectoral\u00bb.<\/p>\n

S\u2019agissant des perspectives de croissance re\u0301silientes, Fitch pre\u0301voit que la croissance du PIB re\u0301el du Gabon ralentira de 3,0 % en 2022 a\u0300 2,6 % en 2023, car la performance du secteur non pe\u0301trolier a e\u0301te\u0301 affecte\u0301e par le de\u0301raillement du train au premier trimestre 2023 et le quota de production de l\u2019OPEP+ sera partiellement respecte\u0301. \u00abNous pre\u0301voyons que la production de pe\u0301trole augmentera en 2023 et 2024 en raison de la mise en service de nouveaux puits, des prix e\u0301leve\u0301s du pe\u0301trole et de nouveaux investissements. Cependant, la production commencera a\u0300 baisser d\u2019ici 2025, car la production de pe\u0301trole diminue structurellement en raison du vieillissement des gisements. Nous pre\u0301voyons une croissance moyenne de 2,8 % en 2024-2025, soutenue par des industries axe\u0301es sur l\u2019exportation et des projets d\u2019infrastructure\u00bb, conclu le rapport.<\/p>\n

Pour plus d’informations et d’analyses sur la Gabon<\/a>, suivez Africa-Press<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – Gabon. Des faiblesses persistantes en matie\u0300re de gestion des finances publiques ont e\u0301te\u0301 note\u0301es au Gabon. L\u2019agence de notation financie\u0300re Fitch Ratings a re\u0301vise\u0301 les perspectives de la notation de de\u0301faut des e\u0301metteurs en devises e\u0301trange\u0300res (IDR) a\u0300 long terme du Gabon, passant de stable a\u0300 positive et a confirme\u0301 l\u2019IDR a\u0300 \u00abB […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":82,"featured_media":24303,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,10],"tags":[36,50,49],"class_list":["post-24304","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economie","category-toutes-les-actualites","tag-africa-press","tag-africa-press-gabon","tag-gabon"],"yoast_head":"\nNotation Fitch Ratings : le Gabon passe de stable \u00e0 positive et \u00abB-\u00bb - Gabon<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Des faiblesses persistantes en matie\u0300re de gestion des finances publiques ont e\u0301te\u0301 note\u0301es au Gabon. 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