{"id":77830,"date":"2026-03-23T23:37:00","date_gmt":"2026-03-23T23:37:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/gabon\/politique\/pncd-2026-2030-plan-ambitieux-sans-financement"},"modified":"2026-04-19T03:34:46","modified_gmt":"2026-04-19T03:34:46","slug":"pncd-2026-2030-plan-ambitieux-sans-financement","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/gabon\/economie\/pncd-2026-2030-plan-ambitieux-sans-financement","title":{"rendered":"PNCD 2026-2030: Plan Ambitieux Sans Financement"},"content":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – Gabon. <\/strong> <\/span>Estampille\u0301 \u00abversion pre\u0301liminaire\u00bb, le Plan national de croissance et de de\u0301veloppement circule depuis plusieurs semaines sur les re\u0301seaux sociaux gabonais, suscitant curiosite\u0301 et commentaires. A\u0300 la lecture du document de 130 pages, le tableau est contraste\u0301: un diagnostic e\u0301conomique d\u2019une franchise ine\u0301dite pour un texte d\u2019E\u0301tat, des projets concrets nomme\u0301s et chiffre\u0301s, mais des objectifs qui de\u0301fient souvent les lois de l\u2019e\u0301conomie, et un financement qui ressemble encore a\u0300 un v\u0153u.<\/b><\/p>\n

Il faut commencer par ce qui me\u0301rite d\u2019e\u0302tre salue\u0301. Le Plan national de croissance et de de\u0301veloppement (PNCD) 2026-2030 n\u2019est pas le catalogue de bonnes intentions auquel les Gabonais ont e\u0301te\u0301 habitue\u0301s depuis le Plan strate\u0301gique Gabon e\u0301mergent. Son diagnostic e\u0301conomique frappe par sa franchise. Il reconnai\u0302t, chiffres a\u0300 l\u2019appui, que malgre\u0301 des milliards investis depuis 2010, la consommation des me\u0301nages a stagne\u0301 pendant une de\u0301cennie entie\u0300re, passant de 2 616 a\u0300 2 615 milliards de francs CFA entre 2017 et 2024. Une de\u0301cennie d\u2019investissements publics pour \u2018\u2019un franc\u2019\u2019 de progression. Le constat est courageux. Il est utile. Il tranche avec la langue de bois habituelle.<\/p>\n

Le document va plus loin encore: il mesure ce que les e\u0301conomistes appellent l\u2019ICOR, un indicateur d\u2019efficacite\u0301 des investissements. Au Gabon, il faut actuellement de\u0301penser 9,3 francs d\u2019investissement pour produire 1 franc de croissance supple\u0301mentaire, quand les pays comparables y parviennent avec 4 francs. Autrement dit, l\u2019argent public est de\u0301pense\u0301, mais il produit de moins en moins. Le reconnai\u0302tre officiellement est, en soi, un acte de lucidite\u0301 politique remarquable.<\/p>\n

Le plan nomme aussi des projets concrets: tronc\u0327ons routiers avec leurs kilome\u0300tres pre\u0301cis, barrages avec leurs me\u0301gawatts, lignes ferroviaires avec leurs trace\u0301s de\u0301taille\u0301s. C\u2019est un progre\u0300s me\u0301thodologique re\u0301el sur ses pre\u0301de\u0301cesseurs.<\/p>\n

Mais c\u2019est la\u0300 que s\u2019arre\u0302te l\u2019e\u0301loge.<\/p>\n

L\u2019arithme\u0301tique re\u0301siste<\/b><\/p>\n

L\u2019objectif affiche\u0301 en te\u0302te du document (une croissance a\u0300 deux chiffres d\u2019ici 2030) est reconnu comme \u00abexceptionnel et rare\u00bb par le document lui-me\u0302me. Seule la Chine, avec 1,3 milliard d\u2019habitants, un marche\u0301 inte\u0301rieur colossal et une politique mone\u0301taire souveraine, a re\u0301ussi pareille performance sur la dure\u0301e. Le Gabon compte 2,5 millions d\u2019habitants, de\u0301pend du franc CFA et d\u2019une politique mone\u0301taire fixe\u0301e a\u0300 Yaounde\u0301 par la BEAC. La comparaison ne tient pas.<\/p>\n

Le sce\u0301nario juge\u0301 \u00abre\u0301aliste\u00bb (6,5 % de croissance annuelle) est lui-me\u0302me tre\u0300s ambitieux pour une e\u0301conomie qui peine a\u0300 de\u0301passer 2 % depuis dix ans. Y parvenir exigerait de multiplier quasiment par quatre l\u2019efficacite\u0301 des investissements publics en cinq ans, de doubler les recettes fiscales hors-pe\u0301trole et de porter le taux d\u2019exe\u0301cution du budget d\u2019investissement de 50 a\u0300 90 %. Chacun de ces objectifs pris isole\u0301ment rele\u0300verait de la prouesse. Les trois simultane\u0301ment? L\u2019e\u0301quation ce\u0300de.<\/p>\n

Un financement sans financeurs identifie\u0301s. Des cibles sociales qui ne trompent personne<\/b><\/p>\n

L\u2019enveloppe totale requise de\u0301passe 27 900 milliards de francs CFA sur cinq ans. Pour boucler ce budget tout en re\u0301duisant la dette publique et le de\u0301ficit (deux autres objectifs du plan), il faudrait mobiliser des investissements prive\u0301s et e\u0301trangers d\u2019une ampleur ine\u0301dite dans l\u2019histoire e\u0301conomique du pays. Le document l\u2019espe\u0300re. Il ne l\u2019explique pas. Les projets ferroviaires, a\u0300 eux seuls, repre\u0301sentent des milliards de dollars, sans lettre d\u2019intention publie\u0301e, sans garantie engage\u0301e, sans investisseur identifie\u0301 a\u0300 ce stade.<\/p>\n

Re\u0301duire la pauvrete\u0301 de 35 a\u0300 15 % en cinq ans. Porter la scolarisation secondaire de 68 a\u0300 98 %. Gagner quatre ans d\u2019espe\u0301rance de vie en un quinquennat. Ces objectifs ne sont pas des ambitions politiques: ce sont des ornements rhe\u0301toriques que l\u2019histoire du de\u0301veloppement mondial contredit unanimement. Aucun pays n\u2019a re\u0301alise\u0301 pareils bonds sociaux en si peu de temps, hors reconstruction post-conflit.<\/p>\n

Ce qu\u2019il faut en retenir<\/b><\/p>\n

Le PNCD vaut moins comme feuille de route exe\u0301cutable que comme document de plaidoyer international. Sa rigueur analytique facilitera la leve\u0301e de fonds aupre\u0300s des bailleurs multilate\u0301raux (Banque mondiale, BAD, Union europe\u0301enne, fonds climatiques) qui travaillent pre\u0301cise\u0301ment dans ce langage. Ses tableaux macroe\u0301conomiques constituent, par ailleurs, la meilleure photographie publique de l\u2019e\u0301conomie gabonaise disponible a\u0300 ce jour: une ressource pre\u0301cieuse pour chercheurs, journalistes et de\u0301cideurs.<\/p>\n

Mais la question que ce cinquie\u0300me plan en quinze ans ne re\u0301sout pas, reste la seule qui vaille vraiment: quel me\u0301canisme concret garantit que son exe\u0301cution sera diffe\u0301rente des pre\u0301ce\u0301dents? Le Plan strate\u0301gique Gabon E\u0301mergent (2010-2025), le Plan de Relance E\u0301conomique (2017-2021), le Plan d\u2019Acce\u0301le\u0301ration de la Transformation (2021-2023), Plan National de De\u0301veloppement pour la Transition (2024-2026) tous se\u0301rieux sur le papier, tous de\u0301cevants dans les faits, posaient la me\u0302me promesse. Sans re\u0301ponse cre\u0301dible a\u0300 cette question, le PNCD 2026-2030, version pre\u0301liminaire ou de\u0301finitive, risque de rejoindre ces archives nationales ou\u0300 s\u2019accumulent, impeccablement relie\u0301s, les re\u0302ves non tenus du Gabon.<\/p>\n

Retrouvez plus d\u2019actualit\u00e9s et d\u2019analyses sur Gabon<\/span> sur le site Africa Press<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – Gabon. Estampille\u0301 \u00abversion pre\u0301liminaire\u00bb, le Plan national de croissance et de de\u0301veloppement circule depuis plusieurs semaines sur les re\u0301seaux sociaux gabonais, suscitant curiosite\u0301 et commentaires. A\u0300 la lecture du document de 130 pages, le tableau est contraste\u0301: un diagnostic e\u0301conomique d\u2019une franchise ine\u0301dite pour un texte d\u2019E\u0301tat, des projets concrets nomme\u0301s et chiffre\u0301s, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":82,"featured_media":77829,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,10],"tags":[49],"class_list":["post-77830","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economie","category-toutes-les-actualites","tag-gabon"],"yoast_head":"\nPNCD 2026-2030: Plan Ambitieux Sans Financement - Gabon<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"-article-header-tag"> Africa-Press - Gabon. 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