{"id":8653,"date":"2022-08-28T20:11:45","date_gmt":"2022-08-28T20:11:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/gabon\/politique\/solvabilite-financiere-le-gabon-expose-a-la-deterioration-de-lenvironnement-economique"},"modified":"2022-08-28T20:33:48","modified_gmt":"2022-08-28T20:33:48","slug":"solvabilite-financiere-le-gabon-expose-a-la-deterioration-de-lenvironnement-economique","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/gabon\/economie\/solvabilite-financiere-le-gabon-expose-a-la-deterioration-de-lenvironnement-economique","title":{"rendered":"Solvabilit\u00e9 financi\u00e8re\u00a0: Le Gabon expos\u00e9 \u00e0 la d\u00e9t\u00e9rioration de l\u2019environnement \u00e9conomique"},"content":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – Gabon. <\/strong><\/span>Fitchs Rating a maintenu, le 26 ao\u00fbt, la note de d\u00e9faut \u00e9metteur (Issuer Default Rating \u2013 IDR) \u00e0 long terme du Gabon \u00e0 \u2018\u2019B-\u2018\u2019. Cette notation signifie que la capacit\u00e9 d\u2019honorer les engagements financiers du pays demeure vuln\u00e9rable \u00e0 la d\u00e9t\u00e9rioration de l\u2019environnement \u00e9conomique.<\/p>\n

Dans son dernier rapport, le 26 ao\u00fbt, Fitch Ratings a appr\u00e9ci\u00e9 le risque de solvabilit\u00e9 financi\u00e8re du Gabon. L\u2019agence de notation a maintenu la note de d\u00e9faut \u00e9metteur (Issuer Default Rating \u2013 IDR) \u00e0 long terme du pays \u00e0 \u2018\u2019B-\u2018\u2019, comme en 2021. Fitch Ratings publie des notations de cr\u00e9dit qui sont des opinions prospectives sur la capacit\u00e9 relative d\u2019une entit\u00e9 ou d\u2019une obligation \u00e0 respecter ses engagements financiers. Des IDR sont attribu\u00e9es aux soci\u00e9t\u00e9s, aux entit\u00e9s souveraines et aux institutions financi\u00e8res.<\/p>\n

La notation financi\u00e8re constitue, pour les investisseurs, un crit\u00e8re cl\u00e9 dans l\u2019estimation du risque qu\u2019un investissement comporte, particuli\u00e8rement dans le cadre de march\u00e9s financiers de plus en plus globaux qui rendent difficile la ma\u00eetrise de l\u2019information et donc de tous les param\u00e8tres de risque. Dans le cas du Gabon, la note \u2018\u2019B-\u2018\u2019 signifie que \u00abla capacit\u00e9 d\u2019honorer les engagements financiers demeure vuln\u00e9rable \u00e0 la d\u00e9t\u00e9rioration de l\u2019environnement \u00e9conomique\u00bb.<\/p>\n

Ainsi, plusieurs facteurs cl\u00e9s sont intervenus dans la notation du pays, \u00e0 l\u2019instar de la hausse du prix du p\u00e9trole. \u00abLa r\u00e9vision des perspectives refl\u00e8te l\u2019am\u00e9lioration de la trajectoire budg\u00e9taire du Gabon, compte tenu de l\u2019augmentation des recettes p\u00e9troli\u00e8res et de la restriction continue des d\u00e9penses courantes, ancr\u00e9e dans un programme du FMI. Nous pensons que la hausse des prix du p\u00e9trole, la ma\u00eetrise des d\u00e9penses et une meilleure mobilisation des recettes non p\u00e9troli\u00e8res am\u00e9lioreront les param\u00e8tres budg\u00e9taires du Gabon et la dette\/PIB restera sur une trajectoire descendante. La faiblesse de la gestion des finances publiques (GFP) et la d\u00e9pendance \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard des recettes p\u00e9troli\u00e8res p\u00e8sent sur la note \u00bb B- \u00bb du Gabon\u00bb, a analys\u00e9 Fitch Ratings.<\/p>\n

Hausse des recettes non p\u00e9troli\u00e8res<\/p>\n

Un autre facteur de notation est l\u2019am\u00e9lioration des perspectives budg\u00e9taires. En effet, les subventions aux produits alimentaires et aux carburants augmenteront en 2022 en raison de la hausse de l\u2019inflation (3,0 % au 1er semestre 22 contre 1,1 % en 2022). Toutefois, l\u2019augmentation des recettes p\u00e9troli\u00e8res compensera les subventions suppl\u00e9mentaires. \u00abNous pr\u00e9voyons des exc\u00e9dents budg\u00e9taires de 0,9% et 1,8% du PIB en 2022 et 2023 (contre un d\u00e9ficit de 1,6% en 2021). Nous supposons des prix du p\u00e9trole Brent \u00e0 105 USD\/b en 2022 et 85 USD\/b en 2023. En 2024, nous pr\u00e9voyons une baisse de l\u2019exc\u00e9dent budg\u00e9taire \u00e0 1,1% du PIB (au-dessus de la pr\u00e9vision m\u00e9diane \u00ab B \u00bb de -3,2%), car la baisse de la production et des prix du p\u00e9trole (suppos\u00e9s en moyenne \u00e0 USD65\/b) entra\u00eenera une baisse des recettes p\u00e9troli\u00e8res\u00bb, a indiqu\u00e9 l\u2019agence de notation.<\/p>\n

Dans le m\u00eame temps, les recettes non p\u00e9troli\u00e8res continueront d\u2019augmenter, soutenues par l\u2019acc\u00e9l\u00e9ration de l\u2019activit\u00e9 non p\u00e9troli\u00e8re, les mesures administratives et la r\u00e9duction progressive des exon\u00e9rations fiscales, ancr\u00e9es dans le programme du FMI. \u00abL\u2019am\u00e9lioration de la structure budg\u00e9taire rendra le pays plus r\u00e9sistant \u00e0 la baisse des prix du p\u00e9trole. Nous pr\u00e9voyons un prix du p\u00e9trole au seuil de rentabilit\u00e9 d\u2019environ 50 USD\/b en 2024 contre 70 USD\/b en 2022\u00bb, a conclu Fitch Ratings.<\/p>\n

Pour plus d’informations et d’analyses sur la Gabon<\/a>, suivez Africa-Press<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – Gabon. Fitchs Rating a maintenu, le 26 ao\u00fbt, la note de d\u00e9faut \u00e9metteur (Issuer Default Rating \u2013 IDR) \u00e0 long terme du Gabon \u00e0 \u2018\u2019B-\u2018\u2019. Cette notation signifie que la capacit\u00e9 d\u2019honorer les engagements financiers du pays demeure vuln\u00e9rable \u00e0 la d\u00e9t\u00e9rioration de l\u2019environnement \u00e9conomique. Dans son dernier rapport, le 26 ao\u00fbt, Fitch […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":82,"featured_media":8652,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,11,10],"tags":[36,50,49],"class_list":["post-8653","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economie","category-homepage-french","category-toutes-les-actualites","tag-africa-press","tag-africa-press-gabon","tag-gabon"],"yoast_head":"\nSolvabilit\u00e9 financi\u00e8re\u00a0: Le Gabon expos\u00e9 \u00e0 la d\u00e9t\u00e9rioration de l\u2019environnement \u00e9conomique - Gabon<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Fitchs Rating a maintenu, le 26 ao\u00fbt, la note de d\u00e9faut \u00e9metteur (Issuer Default Rating \u2013 IDR) \u00e0 long terme du Gabon \u00e0 \u2018 ...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, 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