{"id":10980,"date":"2022-02-20T17:28:05","date_gmt":"2022-02-20T17:28:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/gambia\/uncategorized\/global-europe-brief-the-belarus-connection"},"modified":"2022-02-20T17:53:38","modified_gmt":"2022-02-20T17:53:38","slug":"global-europe-brief-the-belarus-connection","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/gambia\/all-news\/global-europe-brief-the-belarus-connection","title":{"rendered":"Global Europe Brief: The Belarus connection"},"content":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – Gambia. <\/strong><\/span>Welcome to EURACTIV\u2019s Global Europe Brief, your weekly update on the EU from a global perspective.<\/p>\n

You can subscribe to receive our newsletter here.<\/p>\n

In this week\u2019s edition: Russia\u2019s military presence in Belarus, Munich Security Conference update and more Ukraine diplomacy ahead. Plus: Exclusive interview with Bulgaria\u2019s Prime Minister Kiril Petkov.<\/p>\n

Will they stay, or will they go?<\/p>\n

Ten days ago, Russia and Belarus launched major war games, dubbed \u201cUnion Resolve 2022\u201d, in an already tense region, intensifying concerns about Moscow\u2019s military intentions and sparking condemnation from the West and Ukraine.<\/p>\n

The military manoeuvres taking place in southern Belarus, close to the Ukrainian border, are slated to end this Sunday (20 February).<\/p>\n

Their name is symbolic and alludes to the Russian-Belarusian \u2018Union State\u2019, long-standing efforts to merge political and economic structures.<\/p>\n

What started in the 1990s as an arrangement between then-president Boris Yeltsin and Belarus\u2019 leader Alexander Lukashenko, which the latter believed he could dominate, accelerated when Vladimir Putin moved into the Kremlin. It became more consolidated as both countries agreed on closer integration, including on a military level, in 2021.<\/p>\n

For Ukraine, the recently revived relationship between its two neighbours spells trouble. In less than two years, Belarus has turned from a country seeking dialogue over eastern Ukraine, including a peacekeeping role, to a potential frontline in the conflict between Russia and its southern neighbour.<\/p>\n

With up to 190,000 Russian troops amassed on its borders, European and Western officials over the past week have pointed towards Russia\u2019s positioning in Belarus, noting it is different from anything they have seen in the past.<\/p>\n

In private, EU officials and diplomats over the past weeks have expressed concern about the fact that Lukashenko, who previously has been reluctant to allow this level of Russian involvement on his territory, has become apparently more accepting, likely due to domestic dynamics in the country.<\/p>\n

Lukashenko\u2019s crackdown on dissent at home has pushed his country into a deeper military alliance with Putin. Efforts by Lukashenko to show any inch of independence from Russia could easily backfire, with experts believing that Putin\u2019s patience with his Belarusian counterpart is dwindling, which could result in him finding a more reliable replacement.<\/p>\n

Military officials have not disclosed how many troops are involved in the drills, and Russia has refused to participate in a transparency meeting under the helm of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Permanent Council, requested by Baltic states.<\/p>\n

US experts say about 30,000 soldiers have been deployed to Belarus from locations in Russia. Meanwhile, a statement from the Russian Defence Ministry declared that \u201cthe number of participants in the manoeuvres, as well as the number of major weapon systems covered by the Vienna Document 2011, do not exceed the notifiable parameters set out therein.\u201d This would mean less than 9,000 troops.<\/p>\n

Experts are doubtful whether the entire Russian military contingent will be withdrawn from the country once the exercises are over this weekend.<\/p>\n

On Friday, Lukashenko met with Putin in Moscow, insisting he does not want war. The West \u201cis scaring the whole world saying that we are getting ready to attack, surround, and destroy Ukraine, but we have never had any such plans,\u201d Lukashenko said.<\/p>\n

However, he also confirmed that Russian troops might not leave once the exercises are over: \u201cThis is our decision: to withdraw the troops tomorrow or in a month. They will be here as long as necessary.\u201d<\/p>\n

Worries grow that the Russian grab of Belarus could be a laboratory for Putin\u2019s plans for Ukraine.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere is absolutely the possibility that the Russian troops stay permanently, which would create an encirclement around Ukraine,\u201d General Ben Hodges, an ex-commander of US forces in Europe and current head of the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), told EURACTIV.<\/p>\n

Hodges said he does not see any indicators of de-escalation or a withdrawal of Russian troops from the region, as proclaimed by Moscow.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf somebody moves, it is going to be very minor (\u2026), and if Russia actually doesn\u2019t intend to launch an assault, but stay there and continue to maintain pressure on Ukraine, then the departure of some 10,000 troops is not significant, since it accomplishes what it wants,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Hodges drew parallels to similar exercises in the region last year in April when a few troops left, but most of them, including their equipment, stayed behind and Russia\u2019s Caspian Sea flotilla that had come over for the exercises remained in the Sea of Azov.<\/p>\n

\u201cAt the end of the day, Belarus and Ukraine are now back into some sort of Russian sphere of influence and all the implications that come with it,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n

However, security concerns go beyond Ukraine.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere is the likelihood of Russian troops being permanently stationed in Belarus, right next to the very vulnerable Suwa\u0142ki Gap, so this situation has several bad implications for security instability in Europe,\u201d Hodges added, in reference to a strategic 65-kilometres stretch of land connecting Poland and Lithuania, squeezed between Russia\u2019s Kaliningrad Oblast and Belarus.<\/p>\n

MUNICH UPDATE<\/p>\n

CRY FOR HELP | As Western politicians gathered in Munich to discuss the crisis, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy condemned \u201ca policy of appeasement\u201d towards Moscow (slight rebuke against some European countries prone to Russian narratives) and said his country deserved more support in the face of a feared invasion. He received a standing ovation and left to return to Kyiv the same day.<\/p>\n

Ukraine\u2019s foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba, meanwhile, invited the current leadership of the OSCE to undertake an urgent fact-finding visit to Ukraine.<\/p>\n

RUSSIAN NO-SHOW | No Russian delegation is attending the conference, the Kremlin confirmed last week. It is the first no-show in years, underscoring how much East-West relations have deteriorated over the past few months. Even in 2014, just before Russia\u2019s annexation of Crimea, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov attended.<\/p>\n

\u2018ALL SIGNS\u2019 | NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told German public broadcaster ARD that all signs suggest Russia \u201cis planning a full-scale attack on Ukraine.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cNo troops are being withdrawn, as Russia says, but new troops are being added,\u201d he said, adding that there were also indications that Russia was preparing to create a pretext for an attack. Still, Stoltenberg said NATO is committed to a political solution. \u201cWe want to get Russia to change course and sit down with us,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

CHINESE CLARITY | Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi spoke out with remarkable clarity against military intervention in Ukraine. It was a stark contrast to a few weeks ago, when Russia\u2019s President Vladimir Putin and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping signed a joint document against NATO expansion and gave the impression Beijing was giving Moscow support in his confrontation with the West.<\/p>\n

According to Wang, the template for a solution to the tensions lies in the Minsk accords, which however are notoriously ambiguous with Russia and Ukraine interpreting them very differently.<\/p>\n

DISINFO WARNING | The EU is seeing stepped-up \u201cmanipulation\u201d of information to support what looks like fabricated pretexts for military escalation in Ukraine, EU\u2019s chief Josep Borrell warned on Saturday in a statement on behalf of the EU27.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe EU is extremely concerned that staged events\u2026 could be used as a pretext for possible military escalation,\u201d Borrell said, adding they are \u201calso witnessing an intensification of information manipulation efforts to support such objectives.\u201d<\/p>\n

The warning came as Russian state media published unverifiable reports of violent acts in eastern Ukraine, parts of which are held by pro-Moscow rebels, and accused Kyiv of plotting an attack on separatist-held Donetsk and Luhansk regions.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe EU sees no grounds for allegations coming from the non-governmental controlled areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of a possible Ukrainian attack,\u201d Borrell\u2019s statement said.<\/p>\n

G7 \u2018GRAVELY CONCERNED | Foreign ministers from the G7 group of wealthy nations said Saturday they saw no evidence that Russia is reducing military activity near Ukraine\u2019s borders, and remain \u201cgravely concerned\u201d about the situation.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe call on Russia to choose the path of diplomacy, to de-escalate tensions, to substantively withdraw military forces from the proximity of Ukraine\u2019s borders and to fully abide by international commitments,\u201d they said in a joint statement.<\/p>\n

\u201cAs a first step, we expect Russia to implement the announced reduction of its military activities along Ukraine\u2019s borders. We have seen no evidence of this reduction,\u201d they added.<\/p>\n

MORE WEAPONS | Poland is ready to provide Ukraine with additional defensive weapons, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said in Munich. \u201cWe are ready to provide additional supplies of defensive weapons (\u2026) weapons that are to be used to defend (Ukraine\u2019s) territory, defend cities, defend people, places where they are against the aggressions of the Russian army,\u201d Morawiecki said.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, a German army convoy of 130 soldiers and 60 vehicles reached Lithuania earlier this week, bringing almost half of planned reinforcements for the country\u2019s German-led NATO battlegroup.<\/p>\n

NUCLEAR SIDE-TALKS | European nuclear negotiators are expected to use the Munich sidelines this weekend for talks on reviving the Iran nuclear deal, which limited Tehran\u2019s nuclear ambitions in exchange for broad sanctions relief. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian and senior US officials like Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Vice President Kamala Harris will be on the spot, but Iran has so far refused face-to-face meetings with the Americans during the talks.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, negotiators from Iran and the remaining parties to the agreement \u2013 the UK, France, Germany, Russia and China \u2013 are working in Vienna to restore life to the accord. \u201cAn agreement can be expected very soon, (\u2026) ideally in the coming two weeks,\u201d a senior EU diplomat told reporters, adding that \u201cover the last two weeks, delegations have shown a lot of political will \u2013 it\u2019s clear that they want a compromise\u201d.<\/p>\n

DIVERSITY ISSUES | According to the Munich Security Conference, the final proportion of women speakers in the main program of this year\u2019s conference is 45%. However, in the group of top managers represented at the gathering, the proportions are is obviously different.<\/p>\n

A photo taken on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference caused a stir over the weekend, showing 30 middle-aged men, CEO\u2019s of big commercial companies, having a business lunch \u2013 not a single woman among them.<\/p>\n

EU IN THE WORLD<\/p>\n

FAC PREVIEW | After an ad-hoc meeting of EU leaders on Russia on the margins of a summit with African counterparts passed rather uneventful, its EU foreign ministers turn to discuss the Russian crisis on Monday (21 February).<\/p>\n

They will be joined by Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, who will visit Brussels before going to the United States next week to meet with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and address the United Nations General Assembly.<\/p>\n

Ahead of the meeting, an EU senior official said the EU would be \u2018extremely concerned\u2019 about the recent provocations in the Donbas and described Russia recent rhetoric and actions as going \u201cin the direction of warfare\u201d. If this kind of pressure continues for weeks and months without an invasion, the EU \u201cwill obviously have to think what the answer to this is,\u201d the same official added, in what has been stronger language than heard before in Brussels circles.<\/p>\n

Foreign ministers will also participate in a cyber exercise.<\/p>\n

NON-STOP VISITS? | A \u2018continued physical presence\u2019 of European representatives on the ground in Ukraine over the coming days and weeks could prevent an escalation, according to a letter sent by Lithuania to EU\u2019s chief diplomat Josep Borrell, EU foreign ministers and NATO partners, seen by EURACTIV earlier this week.<\/p>\n

Vilnius\u2019 call for a more coordinated approach between EU foreign ministers comes after a Romanian proposal for an EU foreign ministers\u2019 meeting in Kyiv, which could demonstrate the solidarity of the EU to Ukraine.<\/p>\n

While EU officials said such an option is being considered, no decisions have been made so far. However, the EU foreign minister meeting next week in Brussels could potentially discuss the option, an EU official told EURACTIV.<\/p>\n

EU-AFRICA RECAP | EU and African leaders wrapped up a two-day summit in Brussels last week, with both sides stressing that the promise of a \u201cpartnership of equals\u201d and a \u201cnew spirit\u201d of relations would become reality, but divides remain. Have a look into our Special Report on investment, big health promises and security woes.<\/p>\n

DEFENCE CORNER<\/p>\n

NEW BATTLEGROUPS | Amid US warnings of an imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine, NATO defence ministers in Brussels discussed a detailed plan for four new battle groups in southeastern Europe. It remains, unclear, however, if the host country\u2019s all will be onboard.<\/p>\n

PROPOSAL RESPONSE | Russia told the US this week it should withdraw arms and personnel from new NATO members, and that it and NATO must legally commit to stop NATO enlargement eastward, as a new response to the West after it had refused Moscow\u2019s security proposals.<\/p>\n

TAX INCENTIVES | The EU is considering waiving VAT when buying defence equipment produced in Europe in order to promote joint armaments projects, according to a defence policy proposal presented by the European Commission.<\/p>\n

SPACE DREAMS | The European Commission also presented a \u20ac6 billion satellite communications plan, as part of a push to cut the EU\u2019s dependence on foreign companies. The EU initiative aims to protect key communications services and surveillance data against any outside interference as concerns grow over Russian and Chinese military advances in outer space and a surge in satellite launches.<\/p>\n

EU space ministers also agreed that the bloc needed an autonomous satellite constellation infrastructure for high-speed internet access.<\/p>\n

ENLARGEMENT LATEST<\/p>\n

EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW | With this prosecutor general, change in Bulgaria will not happen, Prime Minister Kiril Petkov told EURACTIV in an exclusive interview on 18 February 2022. He said however that he expected that at the end of his mandate, Bulgaria could become an example of a country that has successfully eradicated corruption.<\/p>\n

Speaking about efforts to unlock the start of accession negotiations with North Macedonia, Petkov said he aims to work out a \u2018roadmap\u2019 with Skopje which could potentially be inserted in the EU\u2019s negotiation framework.<\/p>\n

For More News And Analysis About Gambia<\/a> Follow Africa-Press<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – Gambia. Welcome to EURACTIV\u2019s Global Europe Brief, your weekly update on the EU from a global perspective. You can subscribe to receive our newsletter here. In this week\u2019s edition: Russia\u2019s military presence in Belarus, Munich Security Conference update and more Ukraine diplomacy ahead. Plus: Exclusive interview with Bulgaria\u2019s Prime Minister Kiril Petkov. Will […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":84,"featured_media":10979,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,8,9],"tags":[2355,2361,4791,260,4790],"class_list":["post-10980","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-all-news","category-homepage-english","category-miscellaneous","tag-africa-press","tag-africa-press-gambia","tag-connection","tag-gambia","tag-global-europe-brief"],"yoast_head":"\nGlobal Europe Brief: The Belarus connection - Gambia<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Welcome to EURACTIV\u2019s Global Europe Brief, your weekly update on the EU from a global perspective. 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