Africa’S Great Gamble on Economic Promise and Reality

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Africa'S Great Gamble on Economic Promise and Reality
Africa'S Great Gamble on Economic Promise and Reality

Africa-Press – Ghana. The African Continental Free Trade Area is entering a decisive phase in its history. After the signing of the agreements and the legal entry into force of the continental framework, the time has now come for proof through action. The question is no longer whether the AfCFTA can transform Africa’s economy, but how—and how quickly—it will be able to deliver on its promises.

This new stage was clearly affirmed during the 2nd edition of the AfCFTA Business Forum, held on 11 and 12 December 2025 in Marrakech, under the theme “Together for the effective implementation of the AfCFTA.” The meeting brought together public officials, pan-African institutions and private sector stakeholders around a shared observation: the framework exists, but its impact remains limited.

On this occasion, the Secretary-General of the Institution, Wamkele Mene, stressed the change in direction: Africa has moved beyond technical discussions and entered the operational phase—the one that must generate measurable trade flows, investment and jobs.

An unprecedented continental market

The AfCFTA now represents the largest economic integration project ever launched on the continent. Fifty-four African states have signed the agreement, and 48 have ratified it to date, allowing its entry into force in January 2021. Actual trade under the AfCFTA regime began gradually from 2022 onward, in a still limited number of pilot countries.

The ambition is clear: to create a single market of more than 1.3 billion consumers, with a combined GDP estimated at over 3,000 billion dollars, and to raise the share of intra-African trade—historically around 15%—to a level comparable to that of other regions of the world.

“The AfCFTA has the potential to transform Africa’s economic prospects by boosting intra-African trade, fostering industrial development and integrating Africa into global value chains,” said Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Director-General of the WTO.

A global context that makes the AfCFTA unavoidable

The implementation of the AfCFTA is taking place in an unstable international environment: geopolitical tensions, fragmentation of global value chains and tighter trade policies. For several African leaders present in Marrakech, this context reinforces the urgency of building a strong internal market capable of reducing the continent’s dependence on external shocks.

“The AfCFTA offers a unique opportunity for African countries to deepen their economic integration, diversify their exports and accelerate growth,” highlights a World Bank report (Editor’s note: AfCFTA: Economic and Distributional Effects).

In this logic, the AfCFTA is not merely a trade project, but a strategic instrument of economic sovereignty and collective resilience.

Industrialisation and value chains: the real crux of the matterThe discussions in Marrakech also highlighted a widely shared reality: trade liberalisation alone is not enough. Without local productive capacities and adequate industrial and logistics infrastructure, the continental market risks favouring the already most structured economies.

Officials from the African Union Commission and development finance institutions recalled that the AfCFTA must go hand in hand with: the development of regional value chains, the local processing of raw materials, and the harmonisation of rules of origin, particularly in key sectors such as textiles, agro-industry and pharmaceuticals.

“The AfCFTA is not an end in itself; it is a tool to industrialise Africa and create jobs for Africans,” recalled Albert Muchanga, African Union Commissioner for Trade and Industry.

The private sector, a still fragile link

Another major observation: the appropriation of the AfCFTA by businesses remains uneven. Large companies are beginning to position themselves, but SMEs—which represent more than 80% of Africa’s economic fabric—still lack information, financing and visibility on the real opportunities offered by the continental market.

Participants stressed the need to simplify customs procedures, improve logistics connectivity and strengthen financing mechanisms for intra-African trade, without which the AfCFTA will remain an institutional project disconnected from economic realities.

Uneven implementation

While the continental framework is now in place, its national application remains uneven. Some states are moving quickly in adapting their legislation and trade administrations, while others are significantly lagging behind. This asymmetry constitutes one of the main risks to the credibility and effectiveness of the project.

A political, economic and strategic test for Africa

Four years after its legal entry into force, the AfCFTA stands at a crossroads. The foundations have been laid, the first transactions exist, but success will now depend on the ability of African states to coordinate their industrial policies, mobilise the private sector and translate the pan-African vision into concrete results.

More than a trade agreement, the AfCFTA has become a political, economic and strategic test for Africa—testing its capacity to transform its internal market into a driver of inclusive and sustainable growth.

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