Africa-Press – Ghana. Dr Johnson Pandit Asiama, Governor of the Bank of Ghana, has cautioned that Ghana’s recent economic gains could face risks from escalating conflict in the Middle East.
Addressing the opening of the 129th Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting in Accra, Dr Asiama said inflation had declined to 3.3 per cent in February, the lowest since August 1999, falling below the medium-term target band of six to 10 per cent.
He attributed the development to disciplined monetary policy and improving domestic economic conditions.
“We must make our decisions at the intersection of domestic success and external uncertainty,” he said, noting that the conflict could increase volatility in global oil markets.
Dr Asiama said Ghana, as a net importer of petroleum products, faced the risk of imported inflation from rising oil prices, which could affect transport costs, electricity tariffs, production expenses and consumer prices.
He said geopolitical uncertainty had also tightened global financial conditions, increasing borrowing costs and affecting access to external financing.
“We are now not merely within our medium-term target band of six to 10 per cent. We are below its lower band [3.3 per cent as of February 2026],” he noted, urging the Committee to assess how external price shocks could affect the inflation trajectory.
The Governor cited rising gold prices as a positive development that could improve Ghana’s trade balance and partly offset the inflationary impact of higher oil prices.
He said Ghana’s international reserves had increased to US$14.5 billion, equivalent to 5.8 months of import cover, with a government target of reaching 15 months of import cover by 2028.
Dr Asiama said fiscal outcomes had also improved, with a primary surplus of 2.6 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at the end of 2025 compared with a deficit of 3.9 per cent the previous year.
He attributed the improvement to stronger revenue mobilisation and expenditure discipline.
The Governor said economic activity had strengthened, with the composite index of economic activity growing by 8.4 per cent year-on-year at the beginning of 2026, supported by improved business and consumer confidence and a gradual recovery in credit.
“The MPC’s decision this week will, therefore, hinge on whether to maintain the current policy stance or adjust in anticipation of imported inflation pressures… The emerging risks to inflation need to be carefully evaluated.
“Central banking is about managing crisis, but it’s equally about managing success. It is about ensuring that progress achieved through disciplined policy is sustained. The decisions taken in this room this week must therefore hold up under more than one scenario for how the global environment evolves in the months ahead,” he said.
The MPC is expected to announce the policy rate at the end of its 129th meeting on Wednesday, March 18, following the recent 350 basis point reduction to 15.5 per cent from 18 per cent.
