Africa-Press – Ghana. In a comprehensive joint survey by the National Election Strategist (NES), Hon. Kennedy Ohene Agyapong has taken a substantial advantage over Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia in the NPP presidential primaries.
NES’s pre-election survey of 8,329 delegates, conducted from September 23 to October 25, found 50.59% of the delegates supporting Hon. Agyapong, compared to 46.8% for Dr. Bawumia; the other two candidates draw 1.6%, and 1% are undecided.
Based on an eleven-question turnout scale and the assumption that 85% of the voter population will cast their vote.
The survey shows a close contest between Hon. Agyapong and Dr. Bawumia. According to the findings from the survey, there are signs that the turnout could be considerably higher than it was in 2014, the year that voter participation peaked since the NPP’s founding. The report also predicts higher voting rates among youth, who overwhelmingly support Hon. Agyapong. However, it also shows indications of higher-than-expected turnout overall.
Regional Breakdown
Some significant findings from the study show that Dr. Bawumia is dominating in the northern parts of the country. In the Upper East Region, for instance, 67.40% of the delegates support Dr. Bawumia, compared to 30.72% for Hon. Agyapong. In the North East Region, 67.27% of the delegates support Dr. Bawumia, compared to 32% for Hon. Agyapong.
The survey also shows that 64.29% of the delegates from the Savannah Region support Dr. Bawumia, compared to 34.87% for Hon. Agyapong. Among the regions in the northern parts of the country, Dr. Bawumia has massive support from the Upper West, with 73.57% of delegates supporting him, compared to 25.79% for Hon. Agyapong. Furthermore, 67.90% of the delegates support Dr. Bawumia in the Northern Region, compared to 31.94% for Hon. Agyapong.
It emerged that both Dr. Bawumia and Hon. Agyapong won eight regions. Moreover, the outcome of the survey showed that Hon. Agyapong’s message to transform the Northern Region, North East Region, Savannah Region, Upper East Region, and Upper West Region into industrial zones has gained ground among delegates in the northern parts of the country, helping him gain more than 25% of support in each of the regions.
This result shows that Hon. Agyapong has closed the winning gap of Dr. Bawumia in the primaries, as compared to the super delegate elections. The survey findings anticipate a similar outcome in the Eastern Region, where Dr. Bawumia gained 52.24% of support from the delegates compared to 43.88% by Hon. Agyapong.
As it has already indicated, it will be a close contest between Dr. Bawumia and Hon. Agyapong. However, Hon. Agyapong will emerge victorious in the November 4, 2023 primaries. Owusu Afriyie Akoto and Francis Addai Nimo will both share the third and fourth place. However, their votes will not be significant enough to make a difference in their quest to lead the party.
In another survey conducted over the same period of 12,404 general voters, 31.1% of voters support Hon. Agyapong, compared to 30.8% for John Dramani Mahama and 22.3% for Dr. Bawumia; minor party candidates draw 5.6%, and 10.2% are undecided.
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