Africa-Press – Guinee Bissau. <\/strong> <\/span>La Guine\u0301e-Bissau connai\u0302t une campagne e\u0301lectorale intense en vue des e\u0301lections ge\u0301ne\u0301rales \u2014 pre\u0301sidentielle et le\u0301gislatives \u2014 pre\u0301vues pour le 23 novembre. Douze candidats sont en lice pour gagner la confiance de plus de 860 000 e\u0301lecteurs, dans un scrutin d\u2019une importance capitale.<\/p>\nCes e\u0301lections sont cruciales dans un pays d\u2019Afrique de l\u2019Ouest, ancienne colonie portugaise, marque\u0301 par une tension politique croissante due a\u0300 une profonde crise de confiance entre le pouvoir et l\u2019opposition, dans un contexte historique d\u2019instabilite\u0301, de coups d\u2019E\u0301tat et de tentatives militaires de prise de pouvoir.<\/p>\n
Le pre\u0301sident sortant Umaro Sissoco Embalo\u0301 cherche a\u0300 renouveler son mandat face a\u0300 un de\u0301fi majeur pose\u0301 par son pre\u0301de\u0301cesseur Jose\u0301 Ma\u0301rio Vaz, en l\u2019absence d\u2019une figure d\u2019opposition forte comme Domingos Simo\u0303es Pereira, revenu d\u2019exil mais dont la candidature a e\u0301te\u0301 rejete\u0301e par la Cour supre\u0302me. Pereira dirige le Parti africain pour l\u2019inde\u0301pendance de la Guine\u0301e et du Cap-Vert (PAIGC), formation historique ayant conduit le pays a\u0300 l\u2019inde\u0301pendance et longtemps dominante au Parlement jusqu\u2019a\u0300 sa dissolution par Embalo\u0301 en de\u0301cembre 2023.<\/p>\n
La campagne se de\u0301roule dans un climat tendu, marque\u0301 par l\u2019arrestation de plusieurs hauts grade\u0301s de l\u2019arme\u0301e apre\u0300s une tentative de coup d\u2019E\u0301tat. Par ailleurs, des rapports des Nations Unies, notamment de l\u2019Office contre la drogue et le crime, de\u0301crivent la Guine\u0301e-Bissau comme un point de transit majeur pour les trafics de drogue, certains coups d\u2019E\u0301tat e\u0301tant lie\u0301s a\u0300 ces activite\u0301s illicites.<\/p>\n
La que\u0302te de stabilite\u0301 politique et institutionnelle<\/b><\/p>\n
Depuis la dissolution du Parlement par le pre\u0301sident Embalo\u0301 en de\u0301cembre 2023, a\u0300 la suite d\u2019une tentative de coup d\u2019E\u0301tat survenue le 30 novembre, la Guine\u0301e-Bissau vit dans un vide le\u0301gislatif sans de\u0301pute\u0301s e\u0301lus, les e\u0301lections le\u0301gislatives initialement pre\u0301vues en novembre 2024 ayant e\u0301te\u0301 reporte\u0301es.<\/p>\n
Malgre\u0301 l\u2019incertitude, la pre\u0301sidence et la Commission nationale e\u0301lectorale (CNE) confirment la tenue du scrutin le 23 novembre 2025, dans l\u2019espoir de re\u0301tablir la stabilite\u0301 politique et de reconstruire des institutions solides.<\/p>\n
Selon le Dr Yves Ekoue\u0301 Amai\u0308zo, directeur du Centre d\u2019e\u0301tudes africaines de Vienne, le respect des re\u0301sultats des urnes est une condition essentielle pour atteindre la stabilite\u0301. Il met en garde contre tout de\u0301tournement des principes constitutionnels et du transfert pacifique du pouvoir, posant la question:<\/p>\n
\u00ab La volonte\u0301 des e\u0301lecteurs sera-t-elle vraiment respecte\u0301e, ou tout opposant au pre\u0301sident actuel sera-t-il e\u0301carte\u0301 par voie judiciaire? \u00bb<\/p>\n
Amai\u0308zo souligne qu\u2019exclure certains candidats ou limiter la pluralite\u0301 politique risque de miner la le\u0301gitimite\u0301 du processus e\u0301lectoral et d\u2019alimenter a\u0300 nouveau les sce\u0301narios de putschs militaires.<\/p>\n
L\u2019autre enjeu: la lutte contre le trafic de drogue<\/b><\/p>\n
Selon les Nations Unies, la Guine\u0301e-Bissau est devenue une plaque tournante du trafic de cocai\u0308ne entre l\u2019Ame\u0301rique latine et l\u2019Europe. Le pays a me\u0302me e\u0301te\u0301 qualifie\u0301 d\u2019\u00ab E\u0301tat narco \u00bb sous la pre\u0301sidence de Malam Bacai Sanha\u0301 (2009\u20132012).<\/p>\n
En septembre 2024, 2,6 tonnes de cocai\u0308ne ont e\u0301te\u0301 saisies dans un avion prive\u0301 a\u0300 l\u2019ae\u0301roport de Bissau.<\/p>\n
Depuis son arrive\u0301e au pouvoir en 2020, Embalo\u0301 affirme avoir affaibli les re\u0301seaux criminels gra\u0302ce a\u0300 de nouvelles strate\u0301gies se\u0301curitaires. Cependant, plusieurs rapports de l\u2019ONU mentionnent encore l\u2019implication de figures proches du re\u0301gime.<\/p>\n
Deux tentatives de coup d\u2019E\u0301tat ont e\u0301te\u0301 de\u0301joue\u0301es \u2014 en novembre 2023 et de\u0301but novembre 2025 \u2014 accentuant le climat d\u2019inse\u0301curite\u0301 a\u0300 la veille du scrutin.<\/p>\n
Historiquement, aucun pre\u0301sident n\u2019a termine\u0301 son mandat, a\u0300 l\u2019exception de Jose\u0301 Ma\u0301rio Vaz e\u0301lu en 2014. Les autres ont e\u0301te\u0301 renverse\u0301s par des coups d\u2019E\u0301tat ou la mort en fonction.<\/p>\n
Embalo\u0301 soutient que les trafiquants de drogue cherchent a\u0300 de\u0301stabiliser son gouvernement, affirmant: \u00ab Ils ont voulu m\u2019assassiner, moi et tout mon gouvernement. \u00bb<\/p>\n
Le Dr Amai\u0308zo estime que ces crises re\u0301ve\u0300lent la fragilite\u0301 institutionnelle et la corre\u0301lation entre corruption et criminalite\u0301 transnationale, tout en avertissant que la hausse des saisies de drogue ne suffit pas a\u0300 prouver un recul re\u0301el du phe\u0301nome\u0300ne.<\/p>\n
De\u0301fis e\u0301conomiques et redistribution de la richesse<\/b><\/p>\n
La Guine\u0301e-Bissau est le troisie\u0300me producteur de noix de cajou en Afrique de l\u2019Ouest, apre\u0300s la Co\u0302te d\u2019Ivoire et le Nige\u0301ria. En 2025, le pays a exporte\u0301 plus de 208 000 tonnes, ge\u0301ne\u0301rant d\u2019importantes recettes.<\/p>\n
Les exportations de produits bruts ont atteint 132,8 milliards de francs CFA (219 millions USD) en 2023, repre\u0301sentant 93 % des revenus d\u2019exportation.<\/p>\n
Malgre\u0301 un taux de croissance e\u0301conomique de 4,8 a\u0300 5 %, plus de 64 % de la population vit sous le seuil de pauvrete\u0301, selon la Banque mondiale.<\/p>\n
Pour le Dr Amai\u0308zo, le principal de\u0301fi re\u0301side dans la redistribution e\u0301quitable des richesses et la lutte contre la pauvrete\u0301 structurelle:<\/p>\n
\u00ab On ne peut pas parler de stabilite\u0301 politique sans justice sociale. L\u2019ine\u0301galite\u0301 nourrit les re\u0301voltes et les coups d\u2019E\u0301tat. \u00bb<\/p>\n
Il avertit que l\u2019aggravation de la pauvrete\u0301 pourrait pousser les populations marginalise\u0301es a\u0300 soutenir des mouvements de re\u0301bellion, risquant d\u2019entrai\u0302ner une nouvelle de\u0301stabilisation militaire.<\/p>\n
Un ro\u0302le re\u0301gional strate\u0301gique<\/b><\/p>\n
Malgre\u0301 ses fragilite\u0301s, la Guine\u0301e-Bissau joue un ro\u0302le central dans la stabilite\u0301 de l\u2019Afrique de l\u2019Ouest, notamment dans la crise casamanc\u0327aise au sud du Se\u0301ne\u0301gal.<\/p>\n
La me\u0301diation du pre\u0301sident Embalo\u0301 a permis, le 25 fe\u0301vrier 2025, la signature d\u2019un accord de paix entre le Mouvement des forces de\u0301mocratiques de Casamance (MFDC) et le gouvernement se\u0301ne\u0301galais repre\u0301sente\u0301 par le Premier ministre Ousmane Sonko.<\/p>\n
Selon le Dr Yves Ekoue\u0301 Amai\u0308zo, la stabilite\u0301 de la Guine\u0301e-Bissau et du Se\u0301ne\u0301gal est interde\u0301pendante, et une paix durable en Casamance renforcerait la cohe\u0301sion re\u0301gionale.<\/p>\n
Enfin, il conclut que le prochain gouvernement bissau-guine\u0301en doit consolider la stabilite\u0301 interne pour renforcer son influence re\u0301gionale et jouer pleinement son ro\u0302le au sein de la CEDEAO.<\/p>\n
Source: BBC<\/b><\/p>\n
Retrouvez plus d\u2019actualit\u00e9s et d\u2019analyses sur Guinee Bissau<\/span> sur le site Africa Press<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Isidore Kouwonou Africa-Press – Guinee Bissau. La Guine\u0301e-Bissau connai\u0302t une campagne e\u0301lectorale intense en vue des e\u0301lections ge\u0301ne\u0301rales \u2014 pre\u0301sidentielle et le\u0301gislatives \u2014 pre\u0301vues pour le 23 novembre. Douze candidats sont en lice pour gagner la confiance de plus de 860 000 e\u0301lecteurs, dans un scrutin d\u2019une importance capitale. Ces e\u0301lections sont cruciales dans un […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":82,"featured_media":23486,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7,51,20,10],"tags":[409,50,103,1139,114],"class_list":["post-23487","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-dossiers","category-to-homepage","category-top-nouvelles","category-toutes-les-actualites","tag-elections","tag-guinee-bissau","tag-guinee-bissau-2","tag-jose-mario-vaz","tag-umaro-sissoco-embalo"],"yoast_head":"\n
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