{"id":1163,"date":"2021-12-01T00:47:53","date_gmt":"2021-12-01T00:47:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/guinee-conakry\/?p=1163"},"modified":"2021-12-01T03:45:46","modified_gmt":"2021-12-01T03:45:46","slug":"guinee-le-cout-dun-coup","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/guinee-conakry\/dossiers\/guinee-le-cout-dun-coup","title":{"rendered":"Guin\u00e9e : le co\u00fbt d\u2019un coup"},"content":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – Guin\u00e9e. <\/strong><\/span>Au-del\u00e0 des questions de principe, les cons\u00e9quences \u00e9conomiques engendr\u00e9es par les coups d\u2019\u00c9tat sur le long terme sont tout sauf n\u00e9gligeables. Quels que soient les enthousiasmes imm\u00e9diats.<\/p>\n

Des sp\u00e9cialistes des relations internationales aux analystes politiques en passant par les conseillers en s\u00e9curit\u00e9, divers acrobates tentent depuis le 5 septembre d\u2019expliquer le putsch de Conakry, sans pour autant le justifier. Judd Devermont, directeur du programme Afrique du Centre d\u2019\u00e9tudes strat\u00e9giques et internationales, \u00e0 Washington, cite par exemple une \u00e9tude d\u2019opinion de 2017 montrant une large opposition des Guin\u00e9ens (82%) au fameux \u00ab troisi\u00e8me mandat \u00bb, ainsi qu\u2019une hausse de la perception du niveau de corruption.<\/p>\n

\u00c0 elle seule, l\u2019analyse \u00e9conomique apporte des r\u00e9sultats \u00ab ambigus \u00bb quant aux rapports de causalit\u00e9 entre instabilit\u00e9 politique et croissance \u00e9conomique sur le court terme. Dans un tr\u00e8s influent article de recherche d\u00e9ployant un luxe d\u2019outils \u00e9conom\u00e9triques, les \u00e9conomistes am\u00e9ricains John Londregan et Keith Poole concluaient, en 1990, que \u00ab contrairement \u00e0 l\u2019influence marqu\u00e9e des performances \u00e9conomiques sur la probabilit\u00e9 d\u2019occurrence d\u2019un coup d\u2019\u00c9tat, ceux qui sont survenus dans un pass\u00e9 r\u00e9cent n\u2019ont aucun effet syst\u00e9matique sur le taux de croissance des revenus \u00bb.<\/p>\n

Dans un r\u00e9cent r\u00e9examen des donn\u00e9es historiques, en octobre 2020, des sp\u00e9cialistes scandinaves des in\u00e9galit\u00e9s jugent que \u00ab les coups d\u2019\u00c9tat r\u00e9ussis ont un impact positif significatif sur les parts de consommation du quintile inf\u00e9rieur [de la population] et un impact n\u00e9gatif important sur le quintile sup\u00e9rieur \u00bb. Autrement dit, sur le court terme, les populations pauvres en profitent, tandis que les plus riches sont sous pression, \u00ab ce qui explique en partie leur popularit\u00e9 persistante dans les pays en d\u00e9veloppement tr\u00e8s in\u00e9gaux \u00bb. Mais, ajoutent-ils aussit\u00f4t, \u00ab l\u2019effet redistributif est plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 pour les coups d\u2019\u00c9tat [renversements de pouvoirs] civils que pour les coups d\u2019\u00c9tat militaires \u00bb, tout en soulignant les cons\u00e9quences n\u00e9gatives \u00e0 long terme sur la croissance globale et le revenu par habitant.<\/p>\n

D\u00e9gradation des perspectives<\/b><\/p>\n

Sur le long terme, donc, cette mise en garde est proche des conclusions auxquelles est arriv\u00e9 un autre analyste du Stockholm Institute of Transitions Economics, selon qui : \u00ab lorsqu\u2019ils renversent des dirigeants d\u00e9mocratiques, les coups d\u2019\u00c9tat non seulement ne parviennent pas \u00e0 promouvoir les r\u00e9formes \u00e9conomiques ou \u00e0 emp\u00eacher l\u2019apparition de crises financi\u00e8res et l\u2019instabilit\u00e9 politique, mais ils ont \u00e9galement des effets n\u00e9gatifs importants sur un certain nombre de r\u00e9sultats li\u00e9s \u00e0 la croissance, notamment la sant\u00e9, l\u2019\u00e9ducation et l\u2019investissement. \u00bb<\/p>\n

Tel est, in fine, le prix \u00e9conomique r\u00e9el d\u2019un coup d\u2019\u00c9tat. Des d\u00e9gradations de perspectives pour une nation, des efforts \u00e0 renouveler sans cesse, \u00e0 chaque soubresaut, pour regagner la confiance des investisseurs, des contrats dont la validit\u00e9 juridique autant que la maturit\u00e9 financi\u00e8re restent \u00e9ternellement incertains. \u00ab La Guin\u00e9e a accru la transparence des termes des contrats d\u2019extraction et a apport\u00e9 des am\u00e9liorations \u00e0 son cadre r\u00e9glementaire. [\u2026] Ces facteurs favorables sont actuellement menac\u00e9s \u00bb, a averti, d\u00e8s le 7 septembre, Helen Clark, pr\u00e9sidente de l\u2019Initiative pour la transparence dans les industries extractives.<\/p>\n

En surplomb de toutes ces incertitudes, une sorte de loi de Gresham de l\u2019\u00e9conomie politique demeure, qui veut qu\u2019un coup d\u2019\u00c9tat en appelle un autre. Les Ivoiriens se souviennent de la succession de \u00ab complots \u00bb post-d\u00e9cembre 1999 : \u00ab Cheval blanc \u00bb, \u00ab Mercedes noire \u00bb\u2026 \u00ab Un coup d\u2019\u00c9tat r\u00e9ussi favorise l\u2019av\u00e8nement d\u2019un suivant pendant au moins les six ann\u00e9es \u00e0 venir \u00bb, avertissaient John Londregan et Keith Poole. Et, il n\u2019est pas certain que l\u2019effet d\u00e9stabilisateur ne d\u00e9passe pas les fronti\u00e8res du pays concern\u00e9\u2026<\/p>\n

Illusions et embarras<\/b><\/p>\n

Certes, l\u2019\u00e9conomie n\u2019est pas tout, mais nul n\u2019est en droit d\u2019ignorer les donn\u00e9es \u00e9conomiques qui lui d\u00e9plaisent. La Guin\u00e9e reste pauvre et de profondes in\u00e9galit\u00e9s demeurent. Reste qu\u2019entre 2010 et 2020, le PIB par habitant a tripl\u00e9 en monnaie locale et quasiment doubl\u00e9 en dollar. Si la part des revenus salariaux accapar\u00e9e par les 1% de travailleurs les plus ais\u00e9s atteint 12,3% du total, cette proportion est inf\u00e9rieure aux 13% constat\u00e9s au S\u00e9n\u00e9gal et au niveau de 17% en C\u00f4te d\u2019Ivoire, selon les donn\u00e9es du Pnud. La part revenant aux 40% les moins fortun\u00e9s y fr\u00f4le 20% de la masse totale, contre 16% en C\u00f4te d\u2019Ivoire, 16,4% au S\u00e9n\u00e9gal, voire 7,2% en Afrique du Sud\u2026<\/p>\n

Dans les faits, les infrastructures de transport du pays sont rest\u00e9es en dessous des standards (\u00e0 peine 7% de routes goudronn\u00e9es), mais le taux d\u2019acc\u00e8s \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 en Guin\u00e9e est pass\u00e9 de 27,6% de la population en 2010 \u00e0 44% en 2018. C\u2019est deux fois le niveau actuel du Burkina Faso et presque autant que celui d\u2019un g\u00e9ant p\u00e9trolier comme l\u2019Angola, selon les donn\u00e9es de la Banque mondiale. \u00ab Le bilan \u00e9conomique et social [du pr\u00e9sident Alpha Cond\u00e9] s\u2019av\u00e8re particuli\u00e8rement maigre en d\u00e9pit d\u2019une l\u00e9g\u00e8re am\u00e9lioration de la desserte en \u00e9lectricit\u00e9. \u00bb Quelles illusions agitent donc l\u2019intellectuel guin\u00e9en qui a pu commettre une telle phrase ?<\/p>\n

Les victimes d\u2019un coup d\u2019\u00c9tat ne sont pas toujours celles qu\u2019on imagine.<\/p>\n

Pour plus d’informations et d’analyses sur la Guin\u00e9e<\/a>, suivez Africa-Press<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – Guin\u00e9e. Au-del\u00e0 des questions de principe, les cons\u00e9quences \u00e9conomiques engendr\u00e9es par les coups d\u2019\u00c9tat sur le long terme sont tout sauf n\u00e9gligeables. Quels que soient les enthousiasmes imm\u00e9diats. Des sp\u00e9cialistes des relations internationales aux analystes politiques en passant par les conseillers en s\u00e9curit\u00e9, divers acrobates tentent depuis le 5 septembre d\u2019expliquer le putsch […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":82,"featured_media":1162,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7,11,20,10],"tags":[36,57,58],"class_list":["post-1163","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-dossiers","category-homepage-french","category-top-nouvelles","category-toutes-les-actualites","tag-africa-press","tag-africa-press-guinee","tag-guinee"],"yoast_head":"\nGuin\u00e9e : le co\u00fbt d\u2019un coup - guinee Conakry<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Au-del\u00e0 des questions de principe, les cons\u00e9quences \u00e9conomiques engendr\u00e9es par les coups d\u2019\u00c9tat sur le long terme sont t ...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/guinee-conakry\/dossiers\/guinee-le-cout-dun-coup\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Guin\u00e9e : le co\u00fbt d\u2019un coup\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Au-del\u00e0 des questions de principe, les cons\u00e9quences \u00e9conomiques engendr\u00e9es par les coups d\u2019\u00c9tat sur le long terme sont t ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/guinee-conakry\/dossiers\/guinee-le-cout-dun-coup\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"guinee Conakry\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2021-12-01T00:47:53+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2021-12-01T03:45:46+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/static.africa-press.net\/conakry\/sites\/63\/2021\/11\/img-61a6b81f4327d.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"720\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"360\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"cfeditorfr\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u00c9crit par\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"cfeditorfr\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/guinee-conakry\/dossiers\/guinee-le-cout-dun-coup#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/guinee-conakry\/dossiers\/guinee-le-cout-dun-coup\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"cfeditorfr\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/guinee-conakry\/#\/schema\/person\/2b1cf3cd81a31e3cd26889ca66d677f1\"},\"headline\":\"Guin\u00e9e : le co\u00fbt d\u2019un coup\",\"datePublished\":\"2021-12-01T00:47:53+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2021-12-01T03:45:46+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/guinee-conakry\/dossiers\/guinee-le-cout-dun-coup\"},\"wordCount\":917,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/guinee-conakry\/dossiers\/guinee-le-cout-dun-coup#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/static.africa-press.net\/conakry\/sites\/63\/2021\/11\/img-61a6b81f4327d.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Africa Press\",\"Africa Press-Guin\u00e9e\",\"Guin\u00e9e\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Dossiers\",\"homepage-french\",\"Top Nouvelles\",\"Toutes les actualit\u00e9s\"],\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/guinee-conakry\/dossiers\/guinee-le-cout-dun-coup#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/guinee-conakry\/dossiers\/guinee-le-cout-dun-coup\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/guinee-conakry\/dossiers\/guinee-le-cout-dun-coup\",\"name\":\"Guin\u00e9e : le co\u00fbt d\u2019un coup - 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