Africa-Press – Kenya. IMF projects Sub-Saharan Africa’s 2026 growth to accelerate to 4.6 per cent from 4.4 per cent in 2025, IMF. supported by economic stabilisation and reforms.
This is above the estimated global growth rate of 3.3 per cent for 2026 and 3.2 per cent for 2027, revised slightly up since the October 2025 World Economic Outlook.
In emerging markets and developing economies including Kenya, growth is expected to continue to hover above four per cent in 2026 and 2027, IMF says in its January World Economic Outlook.
Technology investment (including AI), fiscal and monetary support, accommodative financial conditions and private sector adaptability are expected to offset trade policy shifts, mainly recent tariffs by US President Donald Trump’s administration, which have altered trade patterns.
“Global inflation is expected to fall, but US inflation will return to target more gradually. Key downside risks are reevaluation of technology expectations and escalation of geopolitical tensions,” IMF says in the report.
“Policymakers should restore fiscal buffers, preserve price and financial stability, reduce uncertainty, and implement structural reforms.”
IMF has put Nigeria’s growth projection at 4.4 per cent up from 4.2 per cent last year while South Africa is expected to record a slower growth of 1.4 per cent from an estimated 1.3 per cent growth last year.
Projections for the two, which are among the key economies in Sub-Saharan Africa now means Kenya could record a much higher growth which had initially been projected at 4.9 per cent, up from 4.8 per cent for 2025 estimates.
The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) projects growth of the economy to have picked up to 5.2 per cent in 2025 and a further growth of 5.5 per cent this year, placing it above IMF’s projections.
This growth is expected to be supported by continued resilience of key service sectors and agriculture, and the continued recovery of the industry sector.
The outlook is however subject to risks, including adverse weather conditions, elevated trade policy uncertainties, and geopolitical tensions, CBK governor Kamau Thugge said during a post-Monetary Policy Committee briefing on December 9.
World Bank in November last year termed Kenya’s economy resilience, but noted that sustained progress would depend on accelerating pro-competitive reforms.
This, even as several macroeconomic indicators continue to show strength with inflation within the target range (4.5% in December) , a stable exchange rate, and foreign exchange reserves at record highs.
Private sector credit is rebounding, growing five per cent% year-on-year by September 2025, supported by lower lending rates and an accommodative monetary stance.
“Economic growth momentum could be further sustained by addressing key barriers to competition, which would also lead to more and better paying jobs, and lower prices to consumers,” said Qimiao Fan, World Bank Division Director for Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, and Uganda.
The economy defied erratic weather and policy uncertainties to grow 4.9% in Q3 2025, Kenya National Bureau of Statistics latest data shows, supported mainly by a rebound of the construction sector, mining and growth in manufacturing and transport sectors.
This was an improvement compared to the 4.2 per cent growth recorded in the third quarter of 2024, as the economy continued on a post-pandemic growth trajectory despite both domestic and global shocks.
The country’s economic growth faces several hurdles among them high national debt, fiscal deficits, rising cost of living, unemployment (especially youth), climate vulnerability and weak revenue collection, alongside structural issues like inequality and slow industrialisation.
The latest Quarterly Gross Domestic Product Report by KNBS however points to a strong macroeconomic environment, pegged on low interest rates in the market, stable inflation and string national productivity mainly in key sectors of the economy.
