Africa-Press – Kenya. <\/strong><\/span>While Russia remains a potent player in parts of Africa, recent events in the Sahelian states have shown that Russian forces are deeply overstretched and losing credibility. It is obvious to all involved that Moscow has no solutions \u2013 which leaves a diplomatic opening for the West<\/p>\nIn the James Bond film Spectre, the protagonist\u2019s arch-villain Blofeld stands in his secret desert base surrounded by well-armed cronies and banks of computers. He looks at agent 007 malevolently and finally admits the truth: \u201cMe. It\u2019s always been me, James. The author of all your pain.\u201d<\/p>\n
The West has a James Bond problem when it comes to its adversaries. It tends to see them through the simplistic archetype of a seemingly unstoppable mastermind villain always two steps ahead, pulling the invisible strings. And Russia\u2019s actions in Africa are no different.<\/p>\n
Ever since Russia first sent its Wagner mercenaries to the Central African Republic (CAR) in 2018 and effectively captured the regime of President Faustin-Archange Touadera, the West \u2013 and its media, its analysts, and its policymakers \u2013 have tended to overemphasise Moscow\u2019s strength, reach, and influence on the African continent.<\/p>\n
East meets west Africa<\/p>\n
To be sure, Moscow is a potent player in Africa. Western awe for Russian operations reached its sad climax in the period from 2021 to 2023 as Moscow played a series of highly effective diplomatic and disinformation campaigns. Although not the primary cause, they certainly had a role in the ousting of the presidents of first Mali, then Burkina Faso, and finally Niger; the rise of three Moscow-friendly putschist regimes; and the upending of a failing, decade-old, French-led counterterror campaign in the region.<\/p>\n
Moscow returned to the stage with a bang. The Kremlin perfectly read and then perfectly exploited the anger among the rank and file in the Sahelian armies, who felt they were being humiliated and fed into the meat grinder while Europeans sat pretty in armoured vehicles, their elites dining out on development aid.<\/p>\n
Russia can move harder and faster than European countries burdened by pesky things like human rights legislation and arms export controls could ever hope to. \u201cNo wonder the Sahelian countries are turning to Russia. You call Moscow up, and by the time you finish, the stuff is already being loaded onto a plane,\u201d one senior West African official recently explained. \u201cYou don\u2019t need to worry about paperwork.\u201d The almost-magical apparition of the Sahel\u2019s equivalent of the \u2018little green men\u2019 shortly after any Sahelian putsch left many Western officials\u2019 heads spinning. \u201cBy the time we\u2019ve had time to set up a meeting to discuss a crisis, Russia has already moved in and set up shop,\u201d said another earlier this year.<\/p>\n
This, combined with the monumental amount of Russian disinformation in Africa, easily lends itself to the unstoppable archvillain archetype so often used as shorthand to understand an increasingly complex and fractured world. But take a step back and survey the field. Russia\u2019s military operations around Africa are not succeeding, and Moscow is not setting itself up as a long-term partner for African governments.<\/p>\n
Stretched thin<\/p>\n
The Africa Corps, the Wagner Group\u2019s successor on the continent, has perhaps 1,000 men in Mali; a hundred or so in Burkina Faso; an unclear number in Niger and Sudan; and about 2,000 in the CAR. These deployments earn the Kremlin and its partners a decent amount of money through gold smuggling or weapon deals, as well as allowing Russia to play a low-level disruptive role. It has also successfully pushed out its narrative across armies of bot farms and paid influencers, and helps prop up authoritarian partners with schemes designed to avoid Western sanctions.<\/p>\n
However, Russian forces in the Sahel are in some regards profoundly overstretched and exposed militarily; Moscow is losing credibility as a reliable partner for African governments. It is clear that Russian forces have scored a few military victories. One which pro-Kremlin propagandists frequently cite is the symbolic northern Malian town of Kidal, which Malian and Russian forces retook in 2023. Undoubtedly, this bolstered morale and achieved personal goals for junta leader Colonel Assimi Goi\u0308ta. But this could also be seen as a pyrrhic victory. The Malian Armed Forces and its Africa Corps allies are overstretched trying to maintain a presence in the centre, north, and northeast of the country, fighting against the Al Qaeda-allied Nusrat al-Islam (JNIM); the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara; and the Strategic Framework for the Defence of the People of Azawad (CSP-DPA), an alliance of predominantly Tuareg groups.<\/p>\n
Two recent events encapsulate both this dire situation and how few solutions Russia has to what was long described as \u201cFrance\u2019s forever war.\u201d First, in late July, a desert hit by the CSP-DPA and JNIM (allegedly with the support of Ukrainian intelligence) reportedly killed 84 Russian Africa Corps fighters and 47 Malian soldiers at Tinzaouten on the Algeria border. In response, Moscow and Bamako are now pummelling parts of northern Mali, seemingly at random, with Turkish drones lent to them by Burkina Faso. An August airstrike reportedly killed at least 21 civilians, including 11 children.<\/p>\n
Then, while most of the world was focusing on exploding pagers in Lebanon in mid-September, the JNIM launched an ambitious attack in Mali on an army base and at the airport, reportedly killing dozens. If its capital, Bamako \u2013 the central pillar of Russian security efforts in the Sahel \u2013 is vulnerable, so are the Burkinabe and Nigerien capitals. Both have been almost encircled by sporadic jihadist attacks.<\/p>\n
The myth<\/p>\n
The simple truth is that everywhere Russia has sent in troops, the security situation is dramatically worse than when international forces were present. According to Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) data for the Central Sahelian states, more than 26,000 people have been killed in Burkina Faso since 2016. But most of these deaths \u2013 more than 15,500 \u2013 occurred since Captain Ibrahim Traore came to power in a coup two years ago and took his country into Moscow\u2019s orbit.<\/p>\n
Sadly, it is very likely that late 2024 and 2025 will be far worse for Burkinabe citizens. Of course, this could be part of Moscow\u2019s end goal. It is certainly not in Russia\u2019s strategic interests to have a stable, democratic, and peaceful Sahel region on Europe\u2019s southern flank.<\/p>\n
This has given rise to a paradoxical situation. On one level, Russia dominates the information space in many African countries where it has military operations and looms larger than life in the minds of many Western diplomats. But at the same time, it is obvious to everyone that Russia simply does not have the financial or military heft to give its African partners governments anything other than bot farms, shoddy weapons, mercenaries for presidential protection, and \u2013 lest we forget \u2013 exploitative mining deals.<\/p>\n
It would not be surprising if Russia\u2019s \u201callies\u201d on the continent soon felt that Moscow\u2019s meagre offerings no longer suited their objectives and started looking for different partners. There is myth and there is reality when it comes to Russia in Africa. European diplomats should try to keep the reality in mind, stay diplomatically engaged, be humble about past errors, and work to expose what hostile powers are doing in the Sahel.<\/p>\n
source:ecfr<\/b><\/p>\n
For More News And Analysis About Kenya Follow Africa-Press<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Will Brown Africa-Press – Kenya. While Russia remains a potent player in parts of Africa, recent events in the Sahelian states have shown that Russian forces are deeply overstretched and losing credibility. It is obvious to all involved that Moscow has no solutions \u2013 which leaves a diplomatic opening for the West In the James […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":84,"featured_media":128762,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,6],"tags":[544],"class_list":["post-128763","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-all-news","category-files","tag-kenya"],"yoast_head":"\n
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