{"id":161621,"date":"2026-07-27T14:50:13","date_gmt":"2026-07-27T14:50:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/kenya\/all-news\/el-nino-may-cost-africa-up-to-20-billion"},"modified":"2026-07-29T02:55:48","modified_gmt":"2026-07-29T02:55:48","slug":"el-nino-may-cost-africa-up-to-20-billion","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/kenya\/all-news\/el-nino-may-cost-africa-up-to-20-billion","title":{"rendered":"El Ni\u00f1o may Cost Africa up to $20 Billion"},"content":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – Kenya. <\/strong> <\/span>The chief climate expert at a local source stated that the impending “super” El Nin\u0303o phenomenon is likely to cause losses ranging from $10 to $20 billion for affected African countries, potentially leading to mass migration from the hardest-hit areas.<\/p>\n

Meteorologists warn that the El Nin\u0303o climate pattern\u2014often responsible for severe droughts, floods, and storms in Africa\u2014could become one of the strongest climate phenomena the continent has ever experienced if current trends of rising Pacific Ocean temperatures continue.<\/p>\n

In addition to the threat to food and water security, public finances and the banking sector may also be at risk if disasters damage infrastructure and leave financially distressed countries struggling to repay related loans.<\/p>\n

Anthony Nyong, director of the climate change and green growth department at a local source, said, “This event alone will lead to a reduction in the GDP of severely affected countries by an average of 1% to 2%, equivalent to about $10 to $20 billion across the continent.”<\/p>\n

The latest forecasts from a local source in May predicted that Africa as a whole would see economic growth of 4.2% this year, rising to 4.4% by 2027, assuming the easing of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, but this was before predictions of the impending “super” or “giant” El Nin\u0303o.<\/p>\n

Nyong’s estimate of potential losses between $10 and $20 billion is the first estimate issued by a major multilateral development bank regarding the El Nin\u0303o phenomenon. He did not provide a breakdown of losses by country but warned that these losses would not be exceptional.<\/p>\n

Drought conditions that have affected most of the Sahel region in recent years may persist, while Mozambique’s experience after Cyclone Idai in 2019 shows that recovery from major storms can take years.<\/p>\n

Governments have fallen into what Nyong described as a “climate finance trap,” lacking the necessary resources to respond to crises and forced to cut budgets for health, education, and infrastructure to cover costs.<\/p>\n

The El Nin\u0303o phenomenon from 2023 to 2024 has caused severe drought in Southern Africa and heavy rains and flooding in the East. These conditions have led to widespread crop damage, a sharp rise in food prices, and record sea-level rises along the continent’s coasts.<\/p>\n

A local source estimated that African farmers are already facing income losses of about $330 million this year, while the fishing sector may also be severely affected due to rising sea temperatures and storms. Nyong stated, “When these shocks occur, countries take two steps back. We do not want our countries to slip into the clutches of poverty.”<\/p>\n

The local source is set to intensify efforts to address the El Nin\u0303o phenomenon through a bank-wide “seminar” in September, where senior staff will assess the potential impact on planned and ongoing investments.<\/p>\n

Nyong added that the bank is on standby to restructure projects to help countries manage the effects of El Nin\u0303o and will work with them to leverage additional multilateral support, such as the Green Climate Fund, the world’s largest climate fund.<\/p>\n

He noted that other potential assistance may come from the Adaptation Fund, climate investment funds, and new loss and damage financing mechanisms.<\/p>\n

A report from a local source in October estimated that developing countries would collectively need about $365 billion annually by 2035 to address climate change, while international public financing for adaptation did not exceed $26 billion in 2023. Nyong stated that Africa will now need up to $100 billion this year due to the expected strength of the El Nin\u0303o phenomenon.<\/p>\n

Nyong remarked, referring to the next twelve months: “The need for climate adaptation financing was already around $50 billion, but this adds another $30 to $50 billion.”<\/p>\n

He explained that humanitarian pressures will exacerbate problems, identifying countries such as Sudan, South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Somalia, Mali, Burundi, and even Nigeria as nations that may face severe impacts.<\/p>\n

He said, “When El Nin\u0303o strikes, mass migration will occur,” adding that the price of maize\u2014a staple food in many affected countries\u2014is expected to double. He continued, “You will not stay in your places; you will move.”<\/p>\n

Nyong explained that the resulting resource shortages and competition for grazing and water may worsen existing vulnerabilities in at-risk areas, with agricultural losses estimated at around $327 million, and fishery productivity expected to decline by 1% to 4%.<\/p>\n

He added that all of this indicates that Africa will need more actions to build its resilience before disasters strike, a topic that will be continuously discussed. He said, “Building a fence around the abyss is cheaper than paying for expensive ambulances waiting at the bottom for people to fall. So let\u2019s build a fence.”<\/p>\n

Find more news and analyses on Kenya<\/span> on the Africa Press<\/span> website<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – Kenya. The chief climate expert at a local source stated that the impending “super” El Nin\u0303o phenomenon is likely to cause losses ranging from $10 to $20 billion for affected African countries, potentially leading to mass migration from the hardest-hit areas. Meteorologists warn that the El Nin\u0303o climate pattern\u2014often responsible for severe droughts, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":84,"featured_media":161620,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,9],"tags":[544],"class_list":["post-161621","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-all-news","category-miscellaneous","tag-kenya"],"yoast_head":"\nEl Ni\u00f1o may Cost Africa up to $20 Billion - kenya<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The chief climate expert at a local source stated that the impending "super" El Nin\u0303o phenomenon is likely\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/kenya\/all-news\/el-nino-may-cost-africa-up-to-20-billion\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"El Ni\u00f1o may Cost Africa up to $20 Billion\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The chief climate expert at a local source stated that the impending "super" El Nin\u0303o phenomenon is likely\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/kenya\/all-news\/el-nino-may-cost-africa-up-to-20-billion\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"kenya\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/AfricaPressTunisiaa\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-07-27T14:50:13+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-07-29T02:55:48+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/static.africa-press.net\/kenya\/sites\/28\/2026\/07\/sm_1785288272.088652.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"960\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"626\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"cfeditoren\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"cfeditoren\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/kenya\/all-news\/el-nino-may-cost-africa-up-to-20-billion#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/kenya\/all-news\/el-nino-may-cost-africa-up-to-20-billion\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"cfeditoren\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/kenya\/#\/schema\/person\/068c7ab4e9634ae78ec5d54ec46598bb\"},\"headline\":\"El Ni\u00f1o may Cost Africa up to $20 Billion\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-07-27T14:50:13+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-07-29T02:55:48+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/kenya\/all-news\/el-nino-may-cost-africa-up-to-20-billion\"},\"wordCount\":790,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/kenya\/all-news\/el-nino-may-cost-africa-up-to-20-billion#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/static.africa-press.net\/kenya\/sites\/28\/2026\/07\/sm_1785288272.088652.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Kenya\"],\"articleSection\":[\"all news\",\"miscellaneous\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/kenya\/all-news\/el-nino-may-cost-africa-up-to-20-billion#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/kenya\/all-news\/el-nino-may-cost-africa-up-to-20-billion\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/kenya\/all-news\/el-nino-may-cost-africa-up-to-20-billion\",\"name\":\"El Ni\u00f1o may Cost Africa up to $20 Billion - 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