{"id":15987,"date":"2022-06-14T07:29:21","date_gmt":"2022-06-14T07:29:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/lesotho\/all-news\/post-coronavirus-more-sorrow-for-africas-new-oil-and-gas-producers"},"modified":"2022-06-14T08:58:13","modified_gmt":"2022-06-14T08:58:13","slug":"post-coronavirus-more-sorrow-for-africas-new-oil-and-gas-producers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/lesotho\/all-news\/post-coronavirus-more-sorrow-for-africas-new-oil-and-gas-producers","title":{"rendered":"Post-coronavirus: More sorrow for Africa\u2019s new oil and gas producers"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"color: #ff6600\"><strong>Africa-Press &#8211; Lesotho. <\/strong><\/span><a name=\"start-reading\"><\/a>The crash in oil and gas prices, triggered by the coronavirus pandemic and the slump in economic activity, has dealt a blow to the plans and public finances of major oil- and gas-producing countries.<\/p>\n<p>But a group of countries in sub-Saharan Africa once designated as \u201cprospective producers\u201d are facing a different challenge. For new producers in the pandemic era, some licensing rounds are likely to be cancelled, and production is being pushed back once more.<\/p>\n<p>Debt is becoming an even greater issue. Yet some investors\u2014like Total in Uganda\u2014still show signs of interest. To clarify this mixed picture, we have reviewed our analysis of the experience of the 12 sub-Saharan African countries that made their first major discoveries during the period from 2001 to 2014.<\/p>\n<p>Despite significant excitement from governments, companies and a range of <a href=\"https:\/\/reliefweb.&lt;br&gt;&lt;\/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;int\/sites\/reliefweb.&lt;br&gt;&lt;\/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;int\/files\/resources\/relatorio-africa-progress-report-2013-pdf-20130511-125153.&lt;br&gt;&lt;\/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;pdf\">international organisations<\/a>, each country reality has fallen short of expectations.<\/p>\n<p>Many hoped that these oil and gas discoveries would propel development. However, the sector has yet to deliver any benefits for many of these countries and has delivered less than the expected benefits for others. We studied the series of disappointments these countries faced, the timeline for getting to first oil or gas and revenues.<\/p>\n<p>The sector has always been inherently unpredictable, but these disappointments highlight the dangers of the \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.&lt;br&gt;&lt;\/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;imf.&lt;br&gt;&lt;\/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;org\/external\/pubs\/ft\/fandd\/2017\/12\/cust.&lt;br&gt;&lt;\/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;htm\">presource curse<\/a>\u201d\u2014the economic risks a country faces from discoveries before the first drop of oil or molecule of gas is produced.<\/p>\n<p>The current coronavirus-related market turmoil is likely to further accentuate this trend. Here we discuss some of the key findings of our analysis and place them in the current context.<\/p>\n<p>In four of the countries we reviewed\u2014Guinea Bissau, Liberia, S\u00e3o Tom\u00e9 and Principe and Sierra Leone\u2014companies ultimately deemed their discoveries commercially unviable. These countries continue to organise licensing rounds in an attempt to rekindle interest in acreage that had failed to deliver on its early promise.<\/p>\n<p>But with the global crash in oil prices and associated reductions in exploration investment, it is likely that several governments, including Liberia\u2019s, will <a href=\"https:\/\/www.&lt;br&gt;&lt;\/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;rystadenergy.&lt;br&gt;&lt;\/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;com\/newsevents\/news\/press-releases\/covid-19-and-low-oil-prices-could-cancel-more-than-half-of-2020s-licensing-rounds-globally\/\">cancel their licensing rounds<\/a> this year.<\/p>\n<p>Among the eight countries with potentially commercial discoveries, most are yet to reach production. As of January 2020, timelines were an average of 73 percent longer than initially forecast.<\/p>\n<p>Uganda, for example, was initially predicted to start oil production in 2009. However, early and excessive optimism on the timeline was compounded by protracted negotiations on taxes, how much oil should go to a domestic refinery and the route for an export pipeline.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.&lt;br&gt;&lt;\/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;total.&lt;br&gt;&lt;\/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;com\/media\/news\/press-releases\/total-acquires-tullow-entire-interests-uganda-lake-albert-project\">Total<\/a>\u2019s recent purchase of Tullow\u2019s stake in the Lake Albert project suggests continued investor confidence in its viability.<\/p>\n<p>But the current turmoil is likely to further delay a final investment decision (FID) and first oil; the project\u2019s relatively high <a href=\"https:\/\/www.&lt;br&gt;&lt;\/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;rystadenergy.&lt;br&gt;&lt;\/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;com\/newsevents\/news\/press-releases\/it-was-time-for-africa-now-covid-19-and-cheap-oil-are-set-to-hit-new-projects-and-slash-state-budgets\/\">break-even price<\/a> could endanger it if prices don\u2019t significantly rebound.<\/p>\n<p>In April, Kosmos announced a one year delay in production at the Senegalese-Mauritanian <a href=\"https:\/\/www.&lt;br&gt;&lt;\/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;rigzone.&lt;br&gt;&lt;\/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;com\/news\/kosmos_greater_tortue_ahmeyim_project_hits_delays-09-apr-2020-161696-article\/\">Greater Tortue Ahmeyim liquefied natural gas project<\/a>, while financing doubts have arisen for Senegal\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.&lt;br&gt;&lt;\/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;reuters.&lt;br&gt;&lt;\/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;com\/article\/health-coronavirus-far-senegal\/update-1-australias-far-fails-to-secure-debt-for-senegal-project-idUSL4N2BN1CT\">first oil project<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>More announcements of project delays are expected. READ MORE <a href=\"https:\/\/www.&lt;br&gt;&lt;\/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;theafricareport.&lt;br&gt;&lt;\/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;com\/27566\/coronavirus-pandemic-puts-strain-30-major-african-oil-and-gas-projects\/\">Coronavirus: Pandemic puts strain 30 major African oil and gas projects<\/a><\/p>\n<p>For the three countries that have managed to reach production\u2014Ghana, Niger and Mauritania\u2014government revenues have fallen significantly short of forecasts.<\/p>\n<p>In the years for which we have comparable data, Mauritania collected around 90 percent less than initially projected in 2015 and Niger collected close to 60 percent less in 2018, primarily because of production shortfalls.<\/p>\n<p>As the following chart shows, Ghana\u2019s revenues were less than half of World Bank projections between 2011 and 2018 as a result of lower production, higher costs and weak <a href=\"https:\/\/resourcegovernance.&lt;br&gt;&lt;\/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;org\/sites\/default\/files\/documents\/getting-a-good-deal-ring-fencing-in-ghana.&lt;br&gt;&lt;\/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;pdf\">tax ring-fencing<\/a>. Over the past few years, Ghana has managed to develop new fields, doubling its production since 2016.<\/p>\n<p>However, with this year\u2019s sharp decline in oil prices, the government has slashed its oil revenue forecast from <a href=\"https:\/\/www.&lt;br&gt;&lt;\/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;mofep.&lt;br&gt;&lt;\/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;gov.&lt;br&gt;&lt;\/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;gh\/sites\/default\/files\/budget-statements\/2020-Budget-Statement-and-Economic-Policy_v3.&lt;br&gt;&lt;\/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;pdf\">$1.6bn<\/a> to <a href=\"https:\/\/newsghana.&lt;br&gt;&lt;\/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;com.&lt;br&gt;&lt;\/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;gh\/ghana-projects-us1-6-billion-preliminary-cost-of-covid-19\/\">$0.6 bn<\/a>: revenue is no higher than in the early years despite the larger volumes.<\/p>\n<p>Overly optimistic expectations have prompted policies that\u2014with the benefit of hindsight\u2014did not appear realistic even before the price crash. For example, expectations of imminent, large oil revenues may have driven the rapid increase in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.&lt;br&gt;&lt;\/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;imf.&lt;br&gt;&lt;\/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;org\/external\/pubs\/ft\/weo\/2019\/02\/weodata\/index.&lt;br&gt;&lt;\/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;aspx\">Ghana, Uganda and Mozambique\u2019s debt<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Some countries established <a href=\"https:\/\/resourcegovernance.&lt;br&gt;&lt;\/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;org\/analysis-tools\/publications\/premature-funds\">sovereign wealth funds <\/a>predicated on expectations of large revenues and fears of subsequent Dutch disease.<\/p>\n<p>Ghana and Mauritania are among those countries that are saving oil revenues at low interest rates while borrowing on international markets at high interest rates, while Kenya and Mozambique have plans to establish sovereign wealth funds.<\/p>\n<p>Several governments have also invested scarce <a href=\"https:\/\/www.&lt;br&gt;&lt;\/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;nationaloilcompanydata.&lt;br&gt;&lt;\/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;org\/\">financial and human resources<\/a> in managing and participating in the petroleum sector on a scale that appears disproportionate to the benefits generated so far. Reversing these disappointments will be hard in the current context.<\/p>\n<p>Total\u2019s recent expansion of its Uganda stake as well as its work to advance the development of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.&lt;br&gt;&lt;\/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;oedigital.&lt;br&gt;&lt;\/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;com\/news\/478168-w-industries-wins-contract-for-mozambique-lng-project\">Mozambique\u2019s Area 1 <\/a>liquefied natural gas project suggests there is still some investor appetite for oil and gas in frontier areas despite the price crash.<\/p>\n<p>However, this period provides a window into a future in which the world moves away from fossil fuels. The road to oil and gas riches is rapidly narrowing for some new producers.<\/p>\n<p>Governments, development partners such as the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, and other organizations must radically rethink their approaches to the sector.<\/p>\n<p><strong>For More News And Analysis About <a href=\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/lesotho\">Lesotho<\/a> Follow <a href=\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/\">Africa-Press<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Africa-Press &#8211; Lesotho. The crash in oil and gas prices, triggered by the coronavirus pandemic and the slump in economic activity, has dealt a blow to the plans and public finances of major oil- and gas-producing countries. But a group of countries in sub-Saharan Africa once designated as \u201cprospective producers\u201d are facing a different challenge. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":84,"featured_media":15986,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,6,8,16],"tags":[242,233,246,245],"class_list":["post-15987","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-all-news","category-files","category-homepage-english","category-twitter","tag-africa","tag-africa-press","tag-africa-press-lesotho","tag-lesotho"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.1 (Yoast SEO v27.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Post-coronavirus: More sorrow for Africa\u2019s new oil and gas producers - Lesotho<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The crash in oil and gas prices, triggered by the coronavirus pandemic and the slump in econ ...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/lesotho\/all-news\/post-coronavirus-more-sorrow-for-africas-new-oil-and-gas-producers\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Post-coronavirus: More sorrow for Africa\u2019s new oil and gas producers\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The crash in oil and gas prices, triggered by the coronavirus pandemic and the slump in econ ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/lesotho\/all-news\/post-coronavirus-more-sorrow-for-africas-new-oil-and-gas-producers\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Lesotho\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/AfricaPressTunisiaa\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-06-14T07:29:21+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-06-14T08:58:13+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/static.africa-press.net\/lesotho\/sites\/62\/2022\/06\/postQueueImg_1-62a84d88dab44.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"732\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"419\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"cfeditoren\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"cfeditoren\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/lesotho\/all-news\/post-coronavirus-more-sorrow-for-africas-new-oil-and-gas-producers#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/lesotho\/all-news\/post-coronavirus-more-sorrow-for-africas-new-oil-and-gas-producers\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"cfeditoren\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/lesotho\/#\/schema\/person\/068c7ab4e9634ae78ec5d54ec46598bb\"},\"headline\":\"Post-coronavirus: More sorrow for Africa\u2019s new oil and gas producers\",\"datePublished\":\"2022-06-14T07:29:21+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-06-14T08:58:13+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/lesotho\/all-news\/post-coronavirus-more-sorrow-for-africas-new-oil-and-gas-producers\"},\"wordCount\":907,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/lesotho\/all-news\/post-coronavirus-more-sorrow-for-africas-new-oil-and-gas-producers#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/static.africa-press.net\/lesotho\/sites\/62\/2022\/06\/postQueueImg_1-62a84d88dab44.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Africa\",\"Africa Press\",\"Africa Press-Lesotho\",\"Lesotho\"],\"articleSection\":[\"all news\",\"files\",\"homepage-english\",\"twitter\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/lesotho\/all-news\/post-coronavirus-more-sorrow-for-africas-new-oil-and-gas-producers#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/lesotho\/all-news\/post-coronavirus-more-sorrow-for-africas-new-oil-and-gas-producers\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/lesotho\/all-news\/post-coronavirus-more-sorrow-for-africas-new-oil-and-gas-producers\",\"name\":\"Post-coronavirus: More sorrow for Africa\u2019s new oil and gas producers - 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