{"id":23278,"date":"2022-12-26T08:42:29","date_gmt":"2022-12-26T08:42:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/lesotho\/all-news\/debt-stress-climate-change-inflationwill-african-countries-weather-the-economic-storm"},"modified":"2022-12-26T10:30:41","modified_gmt":"2022-12-26T10:30:41","slug":"debt-stress-climate-change-inflationwill-african-countries-weather-the-economic-storm","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/lesotho\/all-news\/debt-stress-climate-change-inflationwill-african-countries-weather-the-economic-storm","title":{"rendered":"Debt stress, climate change, inflation\u2026Will African countries weather the economic storm?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – Lesotho. <\/strong><\/span><\/a>High inflation and subsequent interest rate hikes in the US have had huge knock-on effects across the globe. Africa will need to shift dwindling financial resources to more productive uses if it is to emerge from the current crisis with optimism.<\/p>\n

Contagion from developed economies has spilled over into Africa. In Ghana, price growth for August was 33.9%, Ethiopia 32.5%, Nigeria 20.5%, and Rwanda 20.4%. Echoing the US Federal Reserve, a number of central banks across the continent have hiked interest rates to help tame inflation.<\/p>\n

So far, the move has done little to stem the mounting crisis. Rising food and energy prices are draining government coffers and fuelling a cost of living crisis across the continent, which will push hundreds of thousands of people back into poverty.<\/p>\n

<\/a>Lower economic growth means fewer jobs, and people without income.<\/p>\n

David Malpass, president of the World Bank Group, wrote in his forward of the most recent \u2018Poverty and Shared Prosperity\u2019 report that \u201cthe global goal of ending extreme poverty by 2030 would not be achieved\u201d.<\/p>\n

Given current trends, says the report, \u201c574 million people \u2013 nearly 7% of the world\u2019s population \u2013 will still be living on less than $2.15 a day in 2030, with most in Africa\u201d.<\/p>\n

Another World Bank publication, the African Pulse report that was published on 4 October, makes for a more depressing reading. The Bank has revised economic growth projections for Africa down by 0.3 percentage points since its last estimate in April this year, predicting growth to reach just 3.3% in 2022 \u2013 down from 4.1% in 2021.<\/p>\n

\u201cLower economic growth means fewer jobs, and people without income,\u201d says Andrew Dabalen, the World Bank\u2019s Africa Region chief economist. \u201cAnd then if we take into account population growth, you are actually looking at around 0.7% per capita income growth in 2022, which will not be enough for families and workers to pull themselves out of poverty.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cIt looks like there will be more to come,\u201d Razia Khan, chief economist and head of research, Africa at Standard Chartered says in reference to the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates. \u201cThe rest of the world is just going to have to get used to the fact that we\u2019re in an environment of much less accommodative monetary policy than we have seen over the last decade.\u201d<\/p>\n

Layered on top of Africa\u2019s current economic woes is the mounting threat of climate change. Droughts across the Sahel are becoming much more frequent as global temperatures rise, stifling food production and distribution. In the Horn of Africa, more than 37 million people face acute hunger, with approximately 7 million children under the age of five acutely malnourished, according to data from the UN.<\/p>\n

At the other end of the spectrum, floods, and landslides in West Africa have taken away lives and livelihoods as homes and livestock have been swept away. South Africa has also suffered from relentless flooding this year, which, in April, left 448 people, displaced over 40,000 people, and completely destroyed over 12,000 houses in the south-eastern part of the country.<\/p>\n

To build resilience and strengthen their economies, \u201cgovernments must reprioritise the amount of spending they have control over to support high value investments in, for example, agriculture to establish food security over the long term,\u201d says Dabalen. \u201cThey must also invest in supporting long term growth, human capital, and infrastructure; and the diversification of trade partners is also important,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n

How? Policymakers\u2019 ability to invest in structural change is shrinking as they grapple with rising costs and struggle to repay international debt. Borrowing more from the capital markets is more or less off the table, with some governments unwilling to pay the high price tag attached to bond issuance. With a number of bonds reaching maturity in 2024 and 2025, unless inflation in the US collapses, refinancing costs for African debt will be huge.<\/p>\n

governments went on a borrowing spree because we all thought that interest rates would stay low \u201cDebt stress that African countries are currently under is only going to get worse\u201d says Charlie Robertson, global chief economist and head of macro strategy at Renaissance Capital.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis also means that the continent\u2019s ability to transition from fossil fuel to renewable energy sources and central to COP27 discussions will also be limited. If you can\u2019t pay your existing debts, how are you going to fund new renewable projects?\u201d he says.<\/p>\n

Debt forgiveness may be one option used to strengthen African economies. In August this year, China announced it would forgive 23 loans affecting 17 African countries. In May 2020, the Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI) from the World Bank provided some respite to African countries in order to tackle the fallout of the global pandemic.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere was a lot of debt forgiveness in the 2000s, and then governments went on a borrowing spree because we all thought that interest rates would stay low,\u201d says Robertson.<\/p>\n

\u201cBut what Africa hasn\u2019t been able to do is transform debt into export growth; so the question is, if you forgive this debt again, will history repeat itself? This is why developed countries have chosen to redistribute Special Drawing Rights via the IMF and other development institutions because there needs to be some control around how funds are used and managed,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n

Debt restructuring is another possibility. When Zambia became the first African country to default following the Covid-19 pandemic, the IMF swooped in and as of September this year, has agreed to a $1.3bn facility to help rebuild its economy. There are examples of African countries that will be able to weather the storm<\/p>\n

\u201cWhen you have bilateral donors, multilateral donors and private creditors, coordination and agreeing a consensus position on how to proceed will inevitably take time,\u201d says Dabalen from the World Bank. \u201cBut if we can use what has happened in Zambia as a template, perhaps we can get things moving faster.\u201d<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s not paint all of Africa with the same brush, says David Cowan, chief economist for Africa, at Citi. \u201cThere are examples of African countries that will be able to weather the storm,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n

For instance, Co\u0302te d\u2019Ivoire\u2019s development plan, which runs from 2021 to 2025, has $20bn in funding attached with a significant proportion from the IMF, the World Bank and the African Development Bank. The Zambian budget presented in early October has $2bn of external financing attached to it from multilateral donors.<\/p>\n

\u201cMeanwhile, economic growth in individual African countries isn\u2019t as bad as the whole. Nigeria, South Africa, Co\u0302ted\u2019Ivoire all have relatively strong growth despite inflationary pressures,\u201d says Cowan. \u201cI think the key thing going forward will be whether a government is on good terms \u2013 or can get on good terms \u2013 with the IMF.\u201d<\/p>\n

While African governments renegotiate their relationships with multilaterals, in the short term, they are being asked to do more with much less. Navigating their way out of the current crisis \u2013 no matter how affected each country is \u2013 will be a difficult balancing act and any solutions and support that emerge from this week\u2019s World Bank-IMF meetings will be most welcome.<\/p>\n

For More News And Analysis About Lesotho<\/a> Follow Africa-Press<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – Lesotho. High inflation and subsequent interest rate hikes in the US have had huge knock-on effects across the globe. Africa will need to shift dwindling financial resources to more productive uses if it is to emerge from the current crisis with optimism. Contagion from developed economies has spilled over into Africa. In Ghana, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":84,"featured_media":23277,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,6],"tags":[233,246,314,245],"class_list":["post-23278","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-all-news","category-files","tag-africa-press","tag-africa-press-lesotho","tag-african","tag-lesotho"],"yoast_head":"\nDebt stress, climate change, inflation\u2026Will African countries weather the economic storm? - Lesotho<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"High inflation and subsequent interest rate hikes in the US have had huge knock-on effects a ...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/lesotho\/all-news\/debt-stress-climate-change-inflationwill-african-countries-weather-the-economic-storm\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Debt stress, climate change, inflation\u2026Will African countries weather the economic storm?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"High inflation and subsequent interest rate hikes in the US have had huge knock-on effects a ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/lesotho\/all-news\/debt-stress-climate-change-inflationwill-african-countries-weather-the-economic-storm\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Lesotho\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/AfricaPressTunisiaa\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-12-26T08:42:29+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-12-26T10:30:41+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/static.africa-press.net\/lesotho\/sites\/62\/2022\/12\/postQueueImg_1672037834.78.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"585\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"cfeditoren\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"cfeditoren\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"6 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/lesotho\/all-news\/debt-stress-climate-change-inflationwill-african-countries-weather-the-economic-storm#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/lesotho\/all-news\/debt-stress-climate-change-inflationwill-african-countries-weather-the-economic-storm\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"cfeditoren\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/lesotho\/#\/schema\/person\/068c7ab4e9634ae78ec5d54ec46598bb\"},\"headline\":\"Debt stress, climate change, inflation\u2026Will African countries weather the economic storm?\",\"datePublished\":\"2022-12-26T08:42:29+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-12-26T10:30:41+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/lesotho\/all-news\/debt-stress-climate-change-inflationwill-african-countries-weather-the-economic-storm\"},\"wordCount\":1186,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/lesotho\/all-news\/debt-stress-climate-change-inflationwill-african-countries-weather-the-economic-storm#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/static.africa-press.net\/lesotho\/sites\/62\/2022\/12\/postQueueImg_1672037834.78.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Africa Press\",\"Africa Press-Lesotho\",\"African\",\"Lesotho\"],\"articleSection\":[\"all news\",\"files\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/lesotho\/all-news\/debt-stress-climate-change-inflationwill-african-countries-weather-the-economic-storm#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/lesotho\/all-news\/debt-stress-climate-change-inflationwill-african-countries-weather-the-economic-storm\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/lesotho\/all-news\/debt-stress-climate-change-inflationwill-african-countries-weather-the-economic-storm\",\"name\":\"Debt stress, climate change, inflation\u2026Will African countries weather the economic storm? 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