{"id":60074,"date":"2025-08-07T19:34:38","date_gmt":"2025-08-07T19:34:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/lesotho\/all-news\/major-climate-gdp-study-under-review-after-facing-challenge"},"modified":"2025-08-07T20:11:11","modified_gmt":"2025-08-07T20:11:11","slug":"major-climate-gdp-study-under-review-after-facing-challenge","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/lesotho\/all-news\/major-climate-gdp-study-under-review-after-facing-challenge","title":{"rendered":"Major climate-GDP study under review after facing challenge"},"content":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – Lesotho. <\/strong><\/span>A blockbuster study published in top science journal Nature last year warned that unchecked climate change could slash global GDP by a staggering 62 percent by century\u2019s end, setting off alarm bells among financial institutions worldwide.<\/p>\n

But a re-analysis by Stanford University researchers in California, released Wednesday, challenges that conclusion \u2014 finding the projected hit to be about three times smaller and broadly in line with earlier estimates, after excluding an anomalous result tied to Uzbekistan.<\/p>\n

The saga may culminate in a rare retraction, with Nature telling AFP it will have \u201cfurther information to share soon\u201d \u2014 a move that would almost certainly be seized upon by climate-change skeptics.<\/p>\n

Both the original authors \u2014 who have acknowledged errors \u2014 and the Stanford team hoped the transparency of the review process would bolster, rather than undermine public confidence in science.<\/p>\n

Climate scientist Maximilian Kotz and co-authors at the renowned Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), published the original research in April 2024, using datasets from 83 countries to assess how changes in temperature and precipitation affect economic growth.<\/p>\n

Influential paper <\/b><\/p>\n

It became the second most cited climate paper of the year, according to the UK-based Carbon Brief outlet, and informed policy at the World Bank, International Monetary Fund, US federal government and others. AFP was among numerous media outlets to report on it.<\/p>\n

Yet the eye-popping claim that global GDP would be lowered by 62 percent by the year 2100 under a high emissions scenario soon drew scrutiny.<\/p>\n

\u201cThat\u2019s why our eyebrows went up because most people think that 20 percent is a very big number,\u201d scientist and economist Solomon Hsiang, one of the researchers behind the re-analysis, also published in Nature, told AFP.<\/p>\n

When they tried to replicate the results, Hsiang and his Stanford colleagues spotted serious anomalies in the data surrounding Uzbekistan.<\/p>\n

Specifically, there was a glaring mismatch in the provincial growth figures cited in the Potsdam paper and the national numbers reported for the same periods by the World Bank.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhen we dropped Uzbekistan, suddenly everything changed. And we were like, \u2018whoa, that\u2019s not supposed to happen,\u2019\u201d Hsiang said. \u201cWe felt like we had to document it in this form because it\u2019s been used so widely in policy making.\u201d<\/p>\n

The authors of the 2024 paper acknowledged methodological flaws, including currency exchange issues, and on Wednesday uploaded a corrected version, which has not yet been peer-reviewed.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019re waiting for Nature to announce their further decision on what will happen next,\u201d Kotz told AFP.<\/p>\n

He stressed that while \u201cthere can be methodological issues and debate within the scientific community,\u201d the bigger picture was unchanged: climate change will have substantial economic impacts in the decades ahead.<\/p>\n

Undeniable climate impact <\/b><\/p>\n

Frances Moore, an associate professor in environmental economics at the University of California, Davis, who was not involved in either the original paper or the re-analysis, agreed. She told AFP the correction did not alter overall policy implications.<\/p>\n

Projections of an economic slowdown by the year 2100 are \u201cextremely bad\u201d regardless of the Kotz-led study, she said, and \u201cgreatly exceed the costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to stabilize the climate, many times over.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cFuture work to identify specific mechanisms by which variation in climate affects economic output over the medium and long-term is critical to both better understand these findings and prepare society to respond to coming climate disruption,\u201d she also noted.<\/p>\n

Asked whether Nature would be retracting the Potsdam paper, Karl Ziemelis, the journal\u2019s physical sciences editor, did not answer directly but said an editor\u2019s note was added to the paper in November 2024 \u201cas soon as we became aware of an issue\u201d with the data and methodology.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe are in the final stages of this process and will have further information to share soon,\u201d he told AFP.<\/p>\n

The episode comes at a delicate time for climate science, under heavy fire from the US government under President Donald Trump\u2019s second term, as misinformation about the impacts of human-driven greenhouse gases abounds.<\/p>\n

Yet even in this environment, Hsiang argued, the episode showed the robust nature of the scientific method.<\/p>\n

\u201cOne team of scientists checking other scientists\u2019 work and finding mistakes, the other team acknowledging it, correcting the record, this is the best version of science.\u201d<\/p>\n

For More News And Analysis About Lesotho<\/span> Follow Africa-Press<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – Lesotho. A blockbuster study published in top science journal Nature last year warned that unchecked climate change could slash global GDP by a staggering 62 percent by century\u2019s end, setting off alarm bells among financial institutions worldwide. But a re-analysis by Stanford University researchers in California, released Wednesday, challenges that conclusion \u2014 finding […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":84,"featured_media":60073,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,5],"tags":[245],"class_list":["post-60074","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-all-news","category-economy","tag-lesotho"],"yoast_head":"\nMajor climate-GDP study under review after facing challenge - Lesotho<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A blockbuster study published in top science journal Nature last year warned that unchecked climate change could slash g ...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/lesotho\/all-news\/major-climate-gdp-study-under-review-after-facing-challenge\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Major climate-GDP study under review after facing challenge\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A blockbuster study published in top science journal Nature last year warned that unchecked climate change could slash g ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/lesotho\/all-news\/major-climate-gdp-study-under-review-after-facing-challenge\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Lesotho\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/AfricaPressTunisiaa\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-08-07T19:34:38+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-08-07T20:11:11+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/static.africa-press.net\/lesotho\/sites\/62\/2025\/08\/sm_1754581098.063356.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"768\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"cfeditoren\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"cfeditoren\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/lesotho\/all-news\/major-climate-gdp-study-under-review-after-facing-challenge#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/lesotho\/all-news\/major-climate-gdp-study-under-review-after-facing-challenge\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"cfeditoren\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/lesotho\/#\/schema\/person\/068c7ab4e9634ae78ec5d54ec46598bb\"},\"headline\":\"Major climate-GDP study under review after facing challenge\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-08-07T19:34:38+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-08-07T20:11:11+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/lesotho\/all-news\/major-climate-gdp-study-under-review-after-facing-challenge\"},\"wordCount\":720,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/lesotho\/all-news\/major-climate-gdp-study-under-review-after-facing-challenge#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/static.africa-press.net\/lesotho\/sites\/62\/2025\/08\/sm_1754581098.063356.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Lesotho\"],\"articleSection\":[\"all news\",\"economy\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/lesotho\/all-news\/major-climate-gdp-study-under-review-after-facing-challenge#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/lesotho\/all-news\/major-climate-gdp-study-under-review-after-facing-challenge\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/lesotho\/all-news\/major-climate-gdp-study-under-review-after-facing-challenge\",\"name\":\"Major climate-GDP study under review after facing challenge - 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