WILLIAM Q. HARMON
Africa-Press – Liberia. Alexander Cummings, Edward Appleton, and Lusinee Kamara may have lost Liberia’s presidential election, but they have emerged as potential kingmakers for the runoff election, which takes place in about three weeks.
The trio, whose support is vital to President George Weah and his rival, former Vice President Joseph Boakai, neither of whom secured a majority of votes to win the October election in the first round, are needed to help woo their respective bases—swing voters who have now become the undecided voters that could change the outcome of the runoff elections on November 14.
Appleton’s surprise third-place finish has made him a hot commodity, as he had already met with top officials from both Weah’s and Boakai’s camps, respectively.
“Although we are not in the top two spots, we are in a position to play a key role in the upcoming runoff elections,” Appleton said yesterday in a press conference. “We are not going to be bystanders, but we will be full participants in this democratic process of a second-round election.”
According to the National Elections Commission, the long-shot second runner-up got 40,271 votes, constituting 2.20% of the slightly over 1.9 million votes cast.
While Appleton’s tally percentage is only a fraction of Weah’s and Boakai’s votes of 804,087 (43.83%) and 796,961 (43.44%), respectively, his base, analysts say, is part of the larger share of undecided voters who never voted for the two frontrunners in the first round and are now in a position to decide the outcome of the runoff.
His performance in the first round with rural voters has led people to call him a spoiler who blocked the top presidential contenders from an outright victory. This has given him sudden clout, as evidenced by the flood of calls he claims to have received this week.
“While the supposedly big parties were looking for crowds and filling stadiums, we were in rural Liberia talking to people one-on-one,” Appleton said yesterday. “We were talking and delivering our messages, which found fertile ground.”
He believes that whoever he endorses in the coming days would benefit significantly from his support base. expects to follow his recommendation. However, political analysts are less sure. Many analysts think that Appleton lacks a powerful party apparatus to corral voters and that his strong finish may have been due to some voters’ dislike of the top contenders, and they could skip the runoff.
For Cummings, whose base appears to have been undermined by Appleton’s, the endorsement of either of the two candidates carries weight.
Even though Cummings’s share of the vote is 29,613, constituting 1.61% of his 2017 performance, analysts believe that his successful business career signifies a seal of approval for any of the candidates he endorses as someone with the leadership abilities to transform Liberia.
While he remains undecided, Cummings is on record as saying that if he does not make it to the second round, he would support an opposition candidate to unseat Weah.
However, it is unclear if he still stands by that position, especially given the fact that opposition candidate Boakai once testified against him in court regarding a controversy over the Collaborating Political Parties’ (CPP) framework documents. This led to a strained relationship between the two, and the breakdown of the original Collaborating Political Parties remains a festering sore that has yet to be treated, let alone healed.
On one hand, Cummings has been critical of the Weah administration, becoming the most vocal in the opposition and repeatedly warning that the reelection of the President would be detrimental to Liberia. He has cited Weah’s alleged “incompetence” as the reason the President should not be reelected.
Cummings is expected to make his endorsement at a press conference today.
“If he goes with UP and they win, and Jeremiah Koung decides to run for President in 2029, he will have to face Weah,” said a political analyst who asked not to be named. “If he goes with CDC and they win, Weah would have exhausted his term limit by 2029, and Cummings may well be the top candidate by then.”
However, a source within the CPP hinted at “a heavy leaning toward the CDC and President Weah, although no definite decision has been made yet.”
Lusine Kamara (ALCOP), who came fourth place, ahead of Cummings but behind Appleton, boasts a constituency that none of the other two kingmakers has — the majority of the Muslim community voters who have proven their loyalty to him in the just-ended polls.
According to the National Elections Commission, Kamara obtained a nationwide vote of 35,988, constituting 1.96%, placing him in a pivotal position to influence voters in whichever way he goes. While firm decisions have not been made yet, sources say, Kamara, who insists his vote is not based on tribal considerations, has support nearly equally divided between the President and his rival, Boakai.
In Liberia, an estimated 12.2 percent of the population is Muslim, according to the 2022 Census, which puts the country’s population at 5.2 million.
The Muslim community has, for years, raised concerns about their limited inclusion in political party structures across the country. This positions Kamara as the voice of such a large voting block that is spread across the country.
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