{"id":4596,"date":"2022-01-06T06:41:36","date_gmt":"2022-01-06T06:41:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/madagascar\/politique\/croissance-demographique-plus-de-60-millions-de-malgaches-a-lhorizon-2050"},"modified":"2022-01-06T07:29:03","modified_gmt":"2022-01-06T07:29:03","slug":"croissance-demographique-plus-de-60-millions-de-malgaches-a-lhorizon-2050","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/madagascar\/economie\/croissance-demographique-plus-de-60-millions-de-malgaches-a-lhorizon-2050","title":{"rendered":"Croissance d\u00e9mographique : Plus de 60 millions de Malgaches \u00e0 l\u2019horizon 2050"},"content":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – Madagascar. <\/strong><\/span>Les r\u00e9sultats<\/b><\/p>\n

du recensement g\u00e9n\u00e9ral de la population publi\u00e9s en 2019 ont fait \u00e9tat de 25 674 196 habitants recens\u00e9s vivant sur le territoire national, dont 12 658 945 hommes et 13 015 251 femmes. Selon les projections, la population malgache atteindra la barre des 60 millions d\u2019habitants \u00e0 l\u2019horizon 2050.<\/p>\n

On rappelle que l\u2019INSTAT, avec l\u2019appui technique de son homologue am\u00e9ricain US Census Bureau et l\u2019appui financier de l\u2019USAID, a sorti les effectifs de la population entre le dernier<\/p>\n

recensement et le prochain \u2013 qui aura probablement lieu en 2028, voire jusqu\u2019\u00e0 l\u2019horizon 2050.<\/p>\n

Importante<\/b><\/p>\n

Les chiffres publi\u00e9s par l\u2019INSTAT font transpara\u00eetre une assez importante croissance d\u00e9mographique \u00e0 Madagascar. D\u2019apr\u00e8s les statistiques relat\u00e9es dans une publication du minist\u00e8re de l\u2019Economie et des Finances, la population malgache atteindra la barre des 60 millions d\u2019habitants en 2050. \u00ab Au milieu de l\u2019ann\u00e9e 2021 la population malgache \u00e9tait estim\u00e9e \u00e0 28 177 762 d\u2019habitants r\u00e9sidents \u00e0 Madagascar : soit pr\u00e8s de 2,5 millions d\u2019individus en plus depuis le dernier recensement de 2018. \u00c0 ce rythme, la population habitant \u00e0 Madagascar doublera vers la fin de l\u2019ann\u00e9e 2043 pour atteindre 51,5 millions d\u2019individus, et atteindra la barre de 60 millions \u00e0 l\u2019horizon 2050. Ce qui fera une densit\u00e9 d\u2019un peu plus de 100 habitants au km2 contre 43,4 hab.\/km2 au d\u00e9part en 2018.<\/p>\n

Projection d\u00e9mographique<\/b><\/p>\n

Ce proc\u00e9d\u00e9 de calcul, d\u00e9nomm\u00e9 \u00ab projection d\u00e9mographique \u00bb, se base sur des hypoth\u00e8ses et param\u00e8tres tir\u00e9s des caract\u00e9ristiques socio-d\u00e9mographiques observ\u00e9es lors du dernier recensement et les r\u00e9centes enqu\u00eates pour pr\u00e9voir l\u2019\u00e9volution future des effectifs de la population. L\u2019influence du solde migratoire ext\u00e9rieur (diff\u00e9rence entre immigrations et \u00e9migrations) sur l\u2019effectif total de la population a toujours \u00e9t\u00e9 relativement n\u00e9gligeable, notamment en raison du caract\u00e8re insulaire de Madagascar. La natalit\u00e9 et la mortalit\u00e9 peuvent bien d\u00e9terminer l\u2019accroissement de la population. Ainsi, les projections au niveau national ont \u00e9t\u00e9 g\u00e9n\u00e9r\u00e9es sur la base d\u2019hypoth\u00e8ses sur les indicateurs de f\u00e9condit\u00e9 (taux de f\u00e9condit\u00e9 par \u00e2ge et indice synth\u00e9tique de f\u00e9condit\u00e9) et de mortalit\u00e9 (esp\u00e9rance de vie \u00e0 la naissance). Une combinaison de ces indicateurs, assortie d\u2019hypoth\u00e8ses sur leurs tendances futures dues notamment \u00e0 des mesures ou autres changements sociod\u00e9mographiques futurs (comme l\u2019effet de la contraception, l\u2019am\u00e9lioration des services sanitaires\u2026). Le tout mis dans un mod\u00e8le de type logistique, a permis d\u2019obtenir une s\u00e9rie de taux d\u2019accroissement de la population jusqu\u2019en 2050. Le taux d\u2019accroissement de la population malgache reste parmi les plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s dans le monde : 3,0% \u2013 soit 856 000 individus en plus par an.<\/p>\n

Sous l\u2019hypoth\u00e8se de l\u2019effectivit\u00e9 de certaines mesures, dont la campagne de contraception, ce taux commencera \u00e0 se situer significativement en dessous de la barre de 3% \u00e0 partir de 2025 pour une moyenne de 2,51 sur toute la p\u00e9riode 2025-2050, soit 1 102 000 individus en plus par an.<\/p>\n

Pour plus d’informations et d’analyses sur la Madagascar<\/a>, suivez Africa-Press<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – Madagascar. Les r\u00e9sultats du recensement g\u00e9n\u00e9ral de la population publi\u00e9s en 2019 ont fait \u00e9tat de 25 674 196 habitants recens\u00e9s vivant sur le territoire national, dont 12 658 945 hommes et 13 015 251 femmes. Selon les projections, la population malgache atteindra la barre des 60 millions d\u2019habitants \u00e0 l\u2019horizon 2050. On […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":82,"featured_media":4595,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21,3,11,10],"tags":[36,50,49],"class_list":["post-4596","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-communaute","category-economie","category-homepage-french","category-toutes-les-actualites","tag-africa-press","tag-africa-press-madagascar","tag-madagascar"],"yoast_head":"\nCroissance d\u00e9mographique : Plus de 60 millions de Malgaches \u00e0 l\u2019horizon 2050 - Madagascar<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Les r\u00e9sultats du recensement g\u00e9n\u00e9ral de la population publi\u00e9s en 2019 ont fait \u00e9tat de 25 674 196 habitants rece ...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/madagascar\/economie\/croissance-demographique-plus-de-60-millions-de-malgaches-a-lhorizon-2050\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Croissance d\u00e9mographique : Plus de 60 millions de Malgaches \u00e0 l\u2019horizon 2050\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Les r\u00e9sultats du recensement g\u00e9n\u00e9ral de la population publi\u00e9s en 2019 ont fait \u00e9tat de 25 674 196 habitants rece ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/madagascar\/economie\/croissance-demographique-plus-de-60-millions-de-malgaches-a-lhorizon-2050\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Madagascar\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-01-06T06:41:36+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-01-06T07:29:03+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/static.africa-press.net\/centrafricaine\/sites\/56\/2022\/01\/img-61d69a2899fea.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"720\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"477\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"cfeditorfr\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u00c9crit par\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"cfeditorfr\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/madagascar\/economie\/croissance-demographique-plus-de-60-millions-de-malgaches-a-lhorizon-2050#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/madagascar\/economie\/croissance-demographique-plus-de-60-millions-de-malgaches-a-lhorizon-2050\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"cfeditorfr\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/madagascar\/#\/schema\/person\/2b1cf3cd81a31e3cd26889ca66d677f1\"},\"headline\":\"Croissance d\u00e9mographique : Plus de 60 millions de Malgaches \u00e0 l\u2019horizon 2050\",\"datePublished\":\"2022-01-06T06:41:36+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-01-06T07:29:03+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/madagascar\/economie\/croissance-demographique-plus-de-60-millions-de-malgaches-a-lhorizon-2050\"},\"wordCount\":519,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/madagascar\/economie\/croissance-demographique-plus-de-60-millions-de-malgaches-a-lhorizon-2050#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/static.africa-press.net\/centrafricaine\/sites\/56\/2022\/01\/img-61d69a2899fea.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Africa Press\",\"Africa Press-Madagascar\",\"Madagascar\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Communaut\u00e9\",\"\u00c9conomie\",\"homepage-french\",\"Toutes les actualit\u00e9s\"],\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/madagascar\/economie\/croissance-demographique-plus-de-60-millions-de-malgaches-a-lhorizon-2050#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/madagascar\/economie\/croissance-demographique-plus-de-60-millions-de-malgaches-a-lhorizon-2050\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/madagascar\/economie\/croissance-demographique-plus-de-60-millions-de-malgaches-a-lhorizon-2050\",\"name\":\"Croissance d\u00e9mographique : Plus de 60 millions de Malgaches \u00e0 l\u2019horizon 2050 - 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