{"id":12165,"date":"2022-03-20T09:28:06","date_gmt":"2022-03-20T09:28:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mauritius\/all-news\/alone-the-msm-cannot-hope-to-win"},"modified":"2022-03-20T10:44:49","modified_gmt":"2022-03-20T10:44:49","slug":"alone-the-msm-cannot-hope-to-win","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mauritius\/all-news\/alone-the-msm-cannot-hope-to-win","title":{"rendered":"Alone, the MSM cannot hope to win"},"content":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – Mauritius. <\/strong><\/span>Post-legislative analyzes of December 2014, that carried out by the study circle on electoral behavior and strategies, O. R. A. C. (Opinion Research Analysis Consult), seems to me to be the most relevant and coherent (Read: \u2018Quasi-certainties and certainties\u2019, Mauritius Times June 1, 2018).<\/p>\n

According to its figures which seem reliable to me and which I round off, out of all the voters registered in 2014, the MSM represented a force of 25%, of which 20% are traditionally Labor voters who “fired” for reasons that we knows, in particular because of the promises of an \u201ceconomic miracle\u201d \u2014 meaning more concretely a growth rate of at least 7% \u2014 and an end to corruption-nepotism, etc.<\/p>\n

These commitments have obviously not been respected. In addition, the somewhat sectarian slippages and the nonsense of each other of the government majority constitute a very serious handicap.<\/p>\n

However, to hope to play the leading role in the next legislative elections without a “big” partner, the MSM must, on the one hand, retain the “vir\u00e9 mam” of 2014 – which is far from certain despite the festival of gifts which started – and, on the other hand, to bite into the only reservoir available to it, namely the Labor “hardcore”.<\/p>\n

But this core \u2013 15% of the electorate according to ORAC \u2013 which can be described as very tough since it withstood the exceptional tsunami of 2014, will not budge. Therefore, the MSM and its partner, the Mouvement Lib\u00e9rater, in sharp decline, cannot hope to retain power without an alliance with a \u201cbig party\u201d.<\/p>\n

This “big party” can only be the MMM, despite its 15% in 2014 according to ORAC, hence the thinly veiled genuflections in an interminable “koz-koz\u00e9” with a resolutely intransigent MMM whose electoral base is fundamentally hostile to any pre-election alliance.<\/p>\n

Two of B\u00e9renger’s conditions do not seem to pose a problem to me: 1) 50-50 split of tickets, and 2) his blacklist of undesirables. There’s quite a trail \u2013 from Soodhun to the gang to Collendavelloo to the defectors.<\/p>\n

The third condition is of course the electoral reform that the MSM finally wanted to offer as a \u201cdowry\u201d to the MMM. However, B\u00e9renger snubbed her. For the moment\u2026<\/p>\n

Pending the acceptance of a fourth condition that I consider decisive: the sharing of the prime ministership and its terms. So the “koz-koz\u00e9” will probably resume but on the basis of B\u00e9renger’s conditions.<\/p>\n

It must be said that the hostility of the MMM electoral base is such that to sell an alliance with the MSM, B\u00e9renger has no choice but to be particularly demanding.<\/p>\n

He wants, for example, that the electoral reform be perceived as that of the MMM, even if, in fact, there would be details to review. This question is obviously linked to that of the modalities of the Prime Ministerial division.<\/p>\n

If there is no agreement on the prime ministership, the revised reform to please the MMM will be rejected. As for the ruling of the Privy Council in the Medpoint case, I am not sure that it will change B\u00e9renger’s inflexible position.<\/p>\n

Consider the following: The ruling is favorable to Pravind Jugnauth. However, this will not change the electoral arithmetic in any significant way. He will always need the MMM to hope to win.<\/p>\n

Admittedly, on the ethical level, B\u00e9renger will feel more at ease in the negotiations of alliance, however this definitive \u201claundering\u201d of Jugnauth will not make him yield on his conditions.<\/p>\n

The ruling is unfavorable to Pravind Jugnauth. There would then be two possibilities: Pravind Jugnauth does not let go of the prime minister’s chair. The alliance will then be definitively buried.<\/p>\n

Pravind Jugnauth \u201csteps aside\u201d. Negotiations will resume with whoever will replace him at the head of the country with a good chance of success if Nando Bodha is appointed. This is the only scenario that makes an MMM-MSM alliance possible. Only the MMM can hope to win<\/p>\n

As I had already underlined, the politico-electoral chessboard in the current state of things is favorable to the MMM being able to consider winning the next legislative elections alone in the context of a three-way fight.<\/p>\n

The division of the common electoral reservoir of the PTr and the MSM is at an interesting level for the third mauve thief provided that the MMM finds a good part of its traditional electorate having chosen the PMSD, the ML and abstention in 2014.<\/p>\n

Half of its electorate (33% of registered voters) in 2010 had abandoned it in 2014. It is certainly a difficult task, but not impossible. The PMSD failed to retain the disappointed of the MMM of 2014 while the ML is in freefall.<\/p>\n

On the other hand, the alliance with the PTr having been one of the main causes of this defection, an MMM \u2013 presenting itself alone \u2013 can hope to re-motivate a good part of its traditional electorate siphoned off by the PMSD and the ML.<\/p>\n

As for the MMM dissidences, and the dissidences of these dissidences, they have not really taken off. Rumors of an alliance \u201cto be part of the next government\u201d certainly do them a disservice in terms of their objective of attracting undecided purple voters.<\/p>\n

Other embryonic renewal movements \u2013 like \u201con the march of Macron\u201d \u2013\u2013 are not a serious threat in a First Past The Post electoral system. The real threat lies, in my opinion, in the abstentionist tendency of the MMM electorate.<\/p>\n

Alone, the PTr can also claim victory Like the MMM, in 2014, the PTr had been stripped by the MSM of half of its 2010 electorate. He could not count on the disappointments of the MMM for a very simple reason: their disappointment resulted essentially from their hostility to the alliance with the PTr.<\/p>\n

As for the MMM dissidents likely to present themselves under the red flag, nothing shows that they have any support \u2013 apart from Alan Ganoo at No. 14.<\/p>\n

, an alliance with the PTr.<\/p>\n

One can even wonder if, basically, by presenting themselves as independents, they will not be more \u201charmful\u201d to the MMM and therefore more \u201cprofitable\u201d to the PTr.<\/p>\n

It is therefore almost exclusively on the “vir\u00e9 mam” of 2014 that the PTr must be able to count. At first, it is a kind of first electoral round between the PTr and the MSM.<\/p>\n

Admittedly, this does not come across as a walk in the park. The MSM, which is gambling on its survival, has already begun to bring out the heavy artillery:<\/p>\n

1) mud-slinging \u2013 preferably below the belt \u2013 like in 2014 which will most likely be led by Sir Anerood Jugnauth himself,<\/p>\n

2) money-politics, and<\/p>\n

3) electoral gifts even if it means breaking the coffers of the country. Difficult challenge certainly for the PTr in order to recover the “vir\u00e9 mam” of 2014, but not impossible either.<\/p>\n

First, electoral history shows that the PTr has always recovered its electorate from the MSM. Admittedly, this time it will be a bit more complicated.<\/p>\n

Then, the anti-incumbency factor generated by the non-realization of the promises of an economic \u201cmiracle\u201d and above all of the moralization of political life, directly benefits the PTr to the detriment of the MSM.<\/p>\n

In addition, the disastrous management of the BAI affair moved a certain number of voters to the camp of the reds. So the possibility of a return to the \u201ccaze mama\u201d of Labor voters is very real.<\/p>\n

Still, this return must be large enough quantitatively to eliminate the “nuisance value” of the MSM in a three-way fight. To this end, they will have to think seriously about better understanding the problem.<\/p>\n

Some tracks : 1) A methodical and realistic assessment of the relationship of forces and electoral behavior, in order to define an effective strategy;<\/p>\n

2) An optimal and visible use of human resources \u2013 asset of the PTr \u2013 especially at the \u201cgrassroots\u201d level;<\/p>\n

3) Simple and clear \u201cbread and butter\u201d proposals affecting the daily life of the majority.<\/p>\n

Ultimately, the MMM and the PTr seem best placed to win the next legislative elections in a \u201cmulti-cornered fight\u201d. However, this does not mean that the eventual winner will govern.<\/p>\n

In 1976, the MMM, although the “largest single party”, was unable to form the government, the PMSD having preferred to support the PTr of SSR. We can therefore expect such a scenario at the end of the next legislative elections.<\/p>\n

If the winner does not have a parliamentary majority on his own, and is closely followed by the second, the latter could form the government with the third, which will make the latter the “kingmaker”. We can therefore expect an intense electoral battle, bordering on \u201cdirty\u201d\u2026<\/p>\n

For More News And Analysis About Mauritius<\/a> Follow Africa-Press<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – Mauritius. Post-legislative analyzes of December 2014, that carried out by the study circle on electoral behavior and strategies, O. R. A. C. (Opinion Research Analysis Consult), seems to me to be the most relevant and coherent (Read: \u2018Quasi-certainties and certainties\u2019, Mauritius Times June 1, 2018). According to its figures which seem reliable to […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":84,"featured_media":12164,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,6,8,12,16],"tags":[233,245,677,241],"class_list":["post-12165","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-all-news","category-files","category-homepage-english","category-policy","category-twitter","tag-africa-press","tag-africa-press-mauritius","tag-electoral","tag-mauritius"],"yoast_head":"\nAlone, the MSM cannot hope to win - Mauritius<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Post-legislative analyzes of December 2014, that carried out by the study circle on electoral behavior and strategies, O ...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mauritius\/all-news\/alone-the-msm-cannot-hope-to-win\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Alone, the MSM cannot hope to win\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Post-legislative analyzes of December 2014, that carried out by the study circle on electoral behavior and strategies, O ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mauritius\/all-news\/alone-the-msm-cannot-hope-to-win\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Mauritius\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/AfricaPressTunisiaa\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-03-20T09:28:06+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-03-20T10:44:49+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/static.africa-press.net\/mauritius\/sites\/61\/2022\/03\/img-6237057d55e19.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"510\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"285\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"cfeditoren\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"cfeditoren\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"7 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mauritius\/all-news\/alone-the-msm-cannot-hope-to-win#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mauritius\/all-news\/alone-the-msm-cannot-hope-to-win\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"cfeditoren\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mauritius\/#\/schema\/person\/068c7ab4e9634ae78ec5d54ec46598bb\"},\"headline\":\"Alone, the MSM cannot hope to win\",\"datePublished\":\"2022-03-20T09:28:06+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-03-20T10:44:49+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mauritius\/all-news\/alone-the-msm-cannot-hope-to-win\"},\"wordCount\":1428,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mauritius\/all-news\/alone-the-msm-cannot-hope-to-win#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/static.africa-press.net\/mauritius\/sites\/61\/2022\/03\/img-6237057d55e19.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Africa Press\",\"Africa Press-Mauritius\",\"Electoral\",\"Mauritius\"],\"articleSection\":[\"all news\",\"files\",\"homepage-english\",\"policy\",\"twitter\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mauritius\/all-news\/alone-the-msm-cannot-hope-to-win#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mauritius\/all-news\/alone-the-msm-cannot-hope-to-win\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mauritius\/all-news\/alone-the-msm-cannot-hope-to-win\",\"name\":\"Alone, the MSM cannot hope to win - 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