{"id":28617,"date":"2023-04-19T10:28:24","date_gmt":"2023-04-19T10:28:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mauritius\/all-news\/the-big-one-is-coming"},"modified":"2023-04-19T11:38:03","modified_gmt":"2023-04-19T11:38:03","slug":"the-big-one-is-coming","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mauritius\/all-news\/the-big-one-is-coming","title":{"rendered":"The Big One is Coming"},"content":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – Mauritius. <\/strong><\/span>The last decade and a half have given us a reprieve from something that has been part of Mauritian life ever since the beginning of human activity here: serious storms.<\/p>\n

And though some sunny optimists are crediting the effects of climate change on the absence of cyclone activity, there is no actual scientific evidence to back up the claim \u2013 only the lucky streak of near misses that we\u2019ve enjoyed since \u2018Dina\u2019 did significant damage in 2002.<\/p>\n

While we\u2019ve basked in our unusually sustained good weather, we\u2019ve been busy developing the island. Since 2002, we have modernized and expanded. Since \u2018Dina\u2019 hit land, we have erected Ebene Cybercity, constructed a modern glass-covered airport, expanded electricity grids, built significant road infrastructure and installed a fiberoptic internet network covering most of the island.<\/p>\n

Some of it has never been tested by anything more serious than a low intensity perturbation. Given the scientific evidence, I\u2019ve become convinced that as a nation, we have let our guard down and are now sleepwalking into a dreadful situation.<\/p>\n

Over the last months I\u2019ve spoken with some of the top Mauritian experts in engineering, infrastructure, weather and disaster management, both on the government payroll and in the private sector, both on the record and off.<\/p>\n

The picture that has emerged is scary: in the worst \u2013 but statistically not unlikely \u2013 scenario, we could lose power for several weeks, the water system could be affected temporarily, food supply chain thrown out of gear, public buildings could be damaged and out of use and the airport \u2013 our fastest link with the outside word \u2013 could be compromised.<\/p>\n

Just as bad, if less immediately visible, our internet communication with the outside world could become blocked, the mainframe computers holding all our data \u2013 banking, government social security, etc \u2013 could become corrupted.<\/p>\n

(Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society)<\/p>\n

Notable findings from the report include:- Greenhouse gases, global surface and sea surface temperature as well as global upper ocean heat content were the highest on record.<\/p>\n

Global sea level rose to a new record high in 2015. Tropical cyclones were well above average, overall. There were 101 tropical cyclones total across all ocean basins in 2015, well above the 1981-2010 average of 82 storms.<\/p>\n

The Eastern\/ Central Pacific had 26 named storms, the most since 1992. The North Atlantic, in contrast, had fewer storms than most years during the last two decades. The Arctic continued to warm; sea ice extent remained low.<\/p>\n

It is reasonable to deduce that Mauritius is well overdue for a major cyclonic event, based on the law of statistical probability and irrefutable scientific evidence.<\/p>\n

As shown on the table below, \u2018Dina\u2019 was the last very intense tropical cyclone (category 4 Saffir- Simpson Scale) which passed at its nearest distance of 50 kms North of Cap-Malheureux; intense cyclone \u2018Carol\u2019 passed over Mauritius between Feb 25th to 29th 1960, 56 years ago!<\/p>\n

Cyclone \u2018Dina\u2019 it would appear from the data available would have exceeded \u2018Carol\u2019 in wind velocity, and very likely in its destructive capacity, had it come directly over Mauritius.<\/p>\n

It was a near miss! Fortunately its small diameter and eye and the 50 kms distance from Cap-Malheureux spared us the worst? However the toll was heavy, nine fatalities were attributed to the cyclone, five in Rodrigues and four in Mauritius.<\/p>\n

There was extensive damage to agriculture and property. Electricity supply was seriously affected, as was the telecommunications sector, including the mobile network, about 25% of the island was without water for several days.<\/p>\n

The \u2018Universite\u0301 De La Re\u0301union \u2013 Laboratoire de l\u2019Atmosphe\u0300re et des Cyclones\u2019 in a case study on \u2018Dina\u2019 concludes :- \u2018\u20182 500 personnes en centres d\u2019he\u0301bergements, 180 000 personnes sans eau, 107 000 foyers sans e\u0301lectricite\u0301, 13 500 foyers sans te\u0301le\u0301phone, cellulaire hors-services, rafales de vent a\u0300 plus de 200 km\/h, maisons de\u0301vaste\u0301es, routes emporte\u0301es, rivie\u0300res en crues, plantations de\u0301truites, le cyclone tropical intense \u2018Dina\u2019 a ravage\u0301 la Re\u0301union.
\n\u2018\u2018Si Dina e\u0301tait passe\u0301e 25 km plus au sud lors de son passage au plus pre\u0300s de la Re\u0301union, la vitesse des vents aurait e\u0301te\u0301 supe\u0301rieure de 50 km\/h a\u0300 ce que nous avons observe\u0301,\u2019\u2019 analyse Philippe Caroff, chef pre\u0301visionniste a\u0300 la station Me\u0301te\u0301o France du Chaudron.<\/p>\n

En clair, notre i\u0302le a eu beaucoup de chance. Si on se reporte aux valeurs de vent enregistre\u0301es on s\u2019aperc\u0327oit que l\u2019on aurait pu flirter par endroits avec les 300 km\/h.<\/p>\n

\u201cNous avons e\u0301chappe\u0301 aux vents les plus violents, confirme Philippe Caroff. La force du vent e\u0301tant proportionnelle au carre\u0301 de la vitesse lorsque cette dernie\u0300re est multiplie\u0301e par deux, la force est quadruple\u0301e\u201d.<\/p>\n

Since \u2018Dina\u2019, we have had five tropical cyclones and severe depressions in the region, but as mentioned, without any serious damage having been caused.<\/p>\n

For More News And Analysis About Mauritius<\/a> Follow Africa-Press<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – Mauritius. The last decade and a half have given us a reprieve from something that has been part of Mauritian life ever since the beginning of human activity here: serious storms. And though some sunny optimists are crediting the effects of climate change on the absence of cyclone activity, there is no actual […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":84,"featured_media":28616,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,3],"tags":[233,245,768,241],"class_list":["post-28617","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-all-news","category-community","tag-africa-press","tag-africa-press-mauritius","tag-life","tag-mauritius"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Big One is Coming - Mauritius<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The last decade and a half have given us a reprieve from something that has been part of Mauritian life ever since the b ...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mauritius\/all-news\/the-big-one-is-coming\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Big One is Coming\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The last decade and a half have given us a reprieve from something that has been part of Mauritian life ever since the b ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mauritius\/all-news\/the-big-one-is-coming\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Mauritius\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/AfricaPressTunisiaa\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-04-19T10:28:24+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-04-19T11:38:03+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/static.africa-press.net\/mauritius\/sites\/61\/2023\/04\/postQueueImg_1681888018.32.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"620\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"330\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"cfeditoren\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"cfeditoren\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mauritius\/all-news\/the-big-one-is-coming#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mauritius\/all-news\/the-big-one-is-coming\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"cfeditoren\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mauritius\/#\/schema\/person\/068c7ab4e9634ae78ec5d54ec46598bb\"},\"headline\":\"The Big One is Coming\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-04-19T10:28:24+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-04-19T11:38:03+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mauritius\/all-news\/the-big-one-is-coming\"},\"wordCount\":817,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mauritius\/all-news\/the-big-one-is-coming#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/static.africa-press.net\/mauritius\/sites\/61\/2023\/04\/postQueueImg_1681888018.32.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Africa Press\",\"Africa Press-Mauritius\",\"life\",\"Mauritius\"],\"articleSection\":[\"all news\",\"community\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mauritius\/all-news\/the-big-one-is-coming#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mauritius\/all-news\/the-big-one-is-coming\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mauritius\/all-news\/the-big-one-is-coming\",\"name\":\"The Big One is Coming - 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