{"id":30134,"date":"2023-05-29T09:37:40","date_gmt":"2023-05-29T09:37:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mauritius\/all-news\/the-imf-predicts-pain-economic-contraction-and-inflation"},"modified":"2023-05-29T10:52:35","modified_gmt":"2023-05-29T10:52:35","slug":"the-imf-predicts-pain-economic-contraction-and-inflation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mauritius\/all-news\/the-imf-predicts-pain-economic-contraction-and-inflation","title":{"rendered":"The IMF predicts pain: economic contraction and inflation"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"color: #ff6600\"><strong>Africa-Press &#8211; Mauritius. <\/strong><\/span><b>By Iqbal Ahmed Khan <\/b><br \/>\nThe International Monetary Fund this week announced its forecast for the world economy, predicting the global economy being plunged into a recession in 2020, that it dubs The Great Lockdown.<\/p>\n<p>As the IMF predicts economic pain, unprecedented since the Great Depression, what does it predict for Mauritius and how realistic is it? The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is calling it The Great Lockdown.<\/p>\n<p>It predicts 2020 to be a period of economic contraction of the global economy, worse than the global finance crisis in 2008, comparable to the Great Depression in the early 20th century.<\/p>\n<p>For Mauritius, the IMF predicts that in 2020, the Mauritian economy will shrink by 6.8 per cent while inflation will hit 8.5 per cent. So how realistic are these numbers and do they have local economists worried?<\/p>\n<p>First, the IMF\u2019s forecast that the Mauritian economy will shrink by 6.8 per cent in 2020. \u201cClearly a contraction of the global economy would have immediate repercussions on an open market like Mauritius,\u201d says Rajiv Servansingh, chairman of MindAfrica, who also sits on the Economic Development Board.<\/p>\n<p>The IMF is predicting that 2020 will see a three per cent contraction across the global economy with major markets for Mauritius such as the US, UK and France shrinking by 5.9, 6.5 and 7.2 per cent respectively this year and global trade diving by 11 per cent.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cOut of the four major employers that are hotels, construction, non-food retail and manufacturing, two are dependent on world markets and it\u2019s hard to predict when they will pick up,\u201d Servansingh adds.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAlso, keep in mind that in making this prediction, the IMF is assuming that the worst of the pandemic is behind us\u201d with the pandemic fading by the latter half of 2020.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cRight now, the official unemployment rate is nearly seven per cent. This crisis will see lots of small and medium enterprises shutting down and major companies forced to downsize.<\/p>\n<p>I am not sure that the assistance offered by the government will be enough to prevent that. \u201d Lindsay Rivie\u0300re, economic observer. Others agree that the IMF forecast of the Mauritian economy taking a nosedive of 6.8 per cent is an optimistic one.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThis may well prove to be a best-case scenario,\u201d says economic observer Lindsay Rivie\u0300re.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI think it will be closer to 10 per cent because we have not had any economic activity for two months now, which lops of between Rs50 billion and Rs60 billion off the economy and recovery in tourism and exports will be slow as demand won\u2019t return instantly.<\/p>\n<p>There is so much uncertainty\u201d. Economist Eric Ng too, agrees that the economic contraction is likely to be deeper than 6.8 per cent this year. \u201cThis could be an underestimate since I think the IMF computed this estimate before the government recently decided to extend the lockdown, halting economic activity, by another two weeks until 4 May.<\/p>\n<p>If they think that the IMF prediction regarding the economic recession looming this year is too optimistic, what about its prediction that inflation in Mauritius would hit 8.5 per cent? \u201cIf this happens, purchasing power will plunge sharply and interest rates will become negative which means there will be little saving going on,\u201d offers Ng.<\/p>\n<p>For his part, Rivie\u0300re is less sure. \u201cI am not so certain about the prediction of 8.5 per cent inflation,\u201d he says, \u201cWe are consuming and spending less so I don\u2019t think it will be inflation that\u2019s domestically driven; rather, it will be imported inflation.<\/p>\n<p>\u201d He cites the fact that he expects the government relying more on borrowing and floating government bonds which would lower the value of the rupee further, making imports expensive (one dollar is nearly Rs40 now, from Rs35 at the end of last year -ed.<\/p>\n<p>) and with some countries stockpiling or restricting the exports of basic commodities, such as Russia with flour, their prices would go up.<\/p>\n<p>Servansingh, on the other hand, says that he is not so worried about inflation in Mauritius in 2020. \u201cSure it may spike up with the value of the dollar rising vis-a\u0300-vis the rupee but that will be compensated somewhat by low oil prices.<\/p>\n<p>\u201d According to the IMF, international oil prices tumbled by 65 per cent since mid-January and the end of March due to weak demand.<\/p>\n<p>The world body said that it expects global oil prices to average around $34.80 a barrel in 2020 \u2013 more than 43 per cent lower than average oil prices in 2019.<\/p>\n<p>Regardless of how deep the Mauritian recession \u2013 the first in three decades \u2013 will be, what is clear is that 2020 will see a pincer between economic decline and inflation.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt will mean being stuck between the plague and cholera, as they say,\u201d says Ng.<\/p>\n<p>He estimates that since all the indicators going down into the red, unemployment may reach as high as 17 per cent. It\u2019s a prognosis that Rivie\u0300re concurs with.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cRight now, the official unemployment rate is nearly seven per cent. This crisis will see lots of small and medium enterprises shutting down and major companies forced to downsize.<\/p>\n<p>I am not sure that the assistance offered by the government will be enough to prevent that,\u201d he argues. \u201cWe are heading towards a period of high, double digit unemployment, unfortunately.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThis could be an underestimate since I think the IMF computed this estimate before the government recently decided to extend the lockdown, halting economic activity, by another two weeks until 4 May.<\/p>\n<p>Regardless of whether the IMF\u2019s predictions are seeing the glass half-full or half-empty, what is clear is that 2020 will be a year of economic pain for Mauritius.<br \/>\n<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"620\" height=\"330\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-30130 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/static.africa-press.net\/mauritius\/sites\/61\/2023\/05\/sm_1685341273.669298.jpg\" srcset=\"https:\/\/static.africa-press.net\/mauritius\/sites\/61\/2023\/05\/sm_1685341273.669298.jpg 620w, https:\/\/static.africa-press.net\/mauritius\/sites\/61\/2023\/05\/sm_1685341273.669298-300x160.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 620px) 100vw, 620px\" \/><br \/>\n<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"620\" height=\"330\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-30132 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/static.africa-press.net\/mauritius\/sites\/61\/2023\/05\/sm_1685341284.275379.jpg\" srcset=\"https:\/\/static.africa-press.net\/mauritius\/sites\/61\/2023\/05\/sm_1685341284.275379.jpg 620w, https:\/\/static.africa-press.net\/mauritius\/sites\/61\/2023\/05\/sm_1685341284.275379-300x160.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 620px) 100vw, 620px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>For More News And Analysis About <a href=\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mauritius\">Mauritius<\/a> Follow <a href=\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/\">Africa-Press<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Africa-Press &#8211; Mauritius. By Iqbal Ahmed Khan The International Monetary Fund this week announced its forecast for the world economy, predicting the global economy being plunged into a recession in 2020, that it dubs The Great Lockdown. As the IMF predicts economic pain, unprecedented since the Great Depression, what does it predict for Mauritius and [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":84,"featured_media":30133,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,6,11],"tags":[233,245,350,241],"class_list":["post-30134","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-all-news","category-files","category-photo","tag-africa-press","tag-africa-press-mauritius","tag-international","tag-mauritius"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.1 (Yoast SEO v27.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The IMF predicts pain: economic contraction and inflation - Mauritius<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Iqbal Ahmed Khan The International Monetary Fund this week announced its forecast for the world economy, pred ...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mauritius\/all-news\/the-imf-predicts-pain-economic-contraction-and-inflation\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The IMF predicts pain: economic contraction and inflation\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"By Iqbal Ahmed Khan The International Monetary Fund this week announced its forecast for the world economy, pred ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mauritius\/all-news\/the-imf-predicts-pain-economic-contraction-and-inflation\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Mauritius\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/AfricaPressTunisiaa\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-05-29T09:37:40+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-05-29T10:52:35+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/static.africa-press.net\/mauritius\/sites\/61\/2023\/05\/sm_1685341295.319836.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"620\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"330\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"cfeditoren\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"cfeditoren\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mauritius\/all-news\/the-imf-predicts-pain-economic-contraction-and-inflation#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mauritius\/all-news\/the-imf-predicts-pain-economic-contraction-and-inflation\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"cfeditoren\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mauritius\/#\/schema\/person\/068c7ab4e9634ae78ec5d54ec46598bb\"},\"headline\":\"The IMF predicts pain: economic contraction and inflation\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-05-29T09:37:40+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-05-29T10:52:35+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mauritius\/all-news\/the-imf-predicts-pain-economic-contraction-and-inflation\"},\"wordCount\":941,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mauritius\/all-news\/the-imf-predicts-pain-economic-contraction-and-inflation#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/static.africa-press.net\/mauritius\/sites\/61\/2023\/05\/sm_1685341295.319836.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Africa Press\",\"Africa Press-Mauritius\",\"International\",\"Mauritius\"],\"articleSection\":[\"all news\",\"files\",\"photo\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mauritius\/all-news\/the-imf-predicts-pain-economic-contraction-and-inflation#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mauritius\/all-news\/the-imf-predicts-pain-economic-contraction-and-inflation\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mauritius\/all-news\/the-imf-predicts-pain-economic-contraction-and-inflation\",\"name\":\"The IMF predicts pain: economic contraction and inflation - 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