{"id":34993,"date":"2023-09-25T10:32:36","date_gmt":"2023-09-25T10:32:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mauritius\/all-news\/focac8-a-success-or-failure-for-africa"},"modified":"2023-09-25T11:36:47","modified_gmt":"2023-09-25T11:36:47","slug":"focac8-a-success-or-failure-for-africa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mauritius\/all-news\/focac8-a-success-or-failure-for-africa","title":{"rendered":"FOCAC8: A success or failure for Africa?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – Mauritius. <\/strong><\/span>These targets would shape the China-Africa relationship for the forthcoming three years and beyond. Immediately after the Forum\u2019s close, a flurry of headlines reported the \u2018underwhelming\u2019 $40bn financial commitment from China \u2013 a 33% drop in China\u2019s total financial commitment when compared to the $60bn commitment made at the 2018 FOCAC.<\/p>\n

The overall implication was that this year\u2019s FOCAC reflected a weakening China-Africa relationship \u2013 consequent of Covid-19 and risky lending practices.<\/p>\n

But the headlines missed a huge chunk of the picture \u2013 and were arguably premature, not taking into account the key negotiated documents agreed during the meeting.<\/p>\n

Now, with all four documents having been officially published \u2013 a clearer picture is emerging that, in fact, the post-2021 Africa-China relationship may not just intensify but might become more African-led. Let\u2019s talk about why first.<\/p>\n

One key issue is that the narrative of a \u201cweakening\u201d has an implicit bias \u2013 an underlying assumption that both African countries and China itself are \u2018high risk\u2019 when it comes to financial lending and other relationships such as trade.<\/p>\n

They posit that China is trying to swerve international criticism of \u2018debt traps\u2019 by cutting back on unsustainable lending practices to \u2018risky\u2019 African economies. Hence, a \u201ccut\u201d was an easy narrative to lead with.<\/p>\n

But this thinking is not new \u2013 throughout the Covid-19 pandemic, there have been mounting claims of a pending \u2018African debt crisis\u2019 with China portrayed as the main perpetrator. Of course, this pre-dates the pandemic \u2013 in fact, it\u2019s hard to think of a time \u2018Africa\u2019 was not believed to be in a so-called \u2018debt crisis\u2019!<\/p>\n

<\/a>This comes even though the majority of African countries retain debt-to-GDP ratios of under 50%, unlike many wealthy countries and that private commercial debt makes up the largest chunk of most African country\u2019s debt portfolios.<\/p>\n

So how was this narrative promulgated? It was partly through misanalysis. Whilst it is accurate that the overall financial commitments announced in 2018 totalled $60bn, in actual fact in 2018 only $15bn of this was earmarked in the form of loans and aid. It is this $15bn portion that has reportedly completely vanished this year.<\/p>\n

However, when looking at the other broader new commitments made in the speeches \u2013 such as delivering ten regional connectivity projects together, or the 600 million vaccine donations from China \u2013 commitments which were not made in 2018 \u2013 the total value of these in financial terms could easily exceed $15bn.<\/p>\n

Indeed, the regional connectivity commitment specifically is crucial and could be of significant value. The FOCAC Action plan rightly recognises the \u201cpersistent infrastructure gap\u201d in Africa and commits to helping close the gap through concessional finance.<\/p>\n

This is the right way to go. Regional infrastructure projects will be key to meeting African pre-Covid-19 growth goals, the external cost of which the AfDB estimate at up to $68bn to $108bn a year, even without taking account of climate change and post-Covid-19 recovery needs.<\/p>\n

These needs can even be broken down by country. Let\u2019s look at Senegal \u2013 FOCAC\u2019s co-chair. According to the Global Infrastructure Hub, Senegal has a $19bn infrastructure investment gap. Breaking this down by sector, road infrastructure has a gap of $10bn, telecommunications $4bn, and energy $2.8bn.<\/p>\n

The lack of infrastructure is reflected in the fact that 30% of the population lacks access to electricity \u2013 a clear barrier considering this FOCAC\u2019s emphasis on fostering a digital economy across Africa.<\/p>\n

Furthermore, regional infrastructure can be very costly. Even financing infrastructure within a country requires huge amounts of finance. Take Nigeria\u2019s Lagos-Ibadan Railway for example.<\/p>\n

Back in 2017, Nigeria received its largest loan of just over $1.2bn at concessional rates from China. The railway connects Lagos \u2013 Nigeria\u2019s commercial and port city \u2013 to Ibadan, an industrial city to the north.<\/p>\n

It is the first double-track railway in West Africa and cuts travel time to around two hours, reducing road traffic and facilitating trade within Nigeria. In a recent report, colleagues and I have suggested that projects such as this be scaled up at a cross-border level.<\/p>\n

Extending the Lagos railway line to Benin\u2019s capital Porto-Novo (just 88 kilometres away) or even further, to serve Togo and Ghana\u2019s capital cities, and even further across the West coast, would facilitate cross border flows of goods and people, and create huge spill-over effects in terms of employment.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s these kinds of cross-country projects the continent needs to tackle infrastructure gaps \u2013 and projects like this could easily push the total costs of loans and grants over the next three years to over $15bn, and therefore total spending on the Africa-China relationship over the next three years over $60bn.<\/p>\n

While this explanation pertains just to the financial elements of the conference outcome, as I and others in my firm have reported elsewhere, the fact is that other targets announced in speeches and the documents could also set China to be the top development partner across several sectors, including making China the continents top vaccine donator as well as supplier, Africa\u2019s largest export destination, the largest investor in the continent, and providing the highest proportion of SDR reallocations to Africa.<\/p>\n

When you look at FOCAC from this perspective, you can see that contrary to narratives of a weakening China-Africa relationship, the reality is that relations may well intensify over the coming years \u2013 as a result of both African and Chinese demands. This leads me to my final point \u2013 the outcomes of this conference indicate that the relationship is becoming more demand-led by Africans.<\/p>\n

From support for African SMEs, utilising African financial institutions, and recognition of Africa\u2019s Geographical Indications, these are all key developments pushed for by African negotiators \u2013 and reiterates our advice that when it comes to Africa\u2019s relationship with China: if you don\u2019t ask, you don\u2019t get.<\/p>\n

This enhanced space for African demands \u2013 African \u201cagency\u201d \u2013 is highly important for African governments, citizens and businesses to understand carefully.<\/p>\n

Because while it does not fit with the \u201cdebt distress\u201d narratives, it nevertheless creates a number of opportunities as well as challenges going forward.<\/p>\n

In particular, if African stakeholders are going to take advantage of the aspirations expressed in FOCAC 2021, this is not a time to question \u201cwhose agency\u201d within Africa we are talking about. Policymakers, businesses, think tanks and civil society must instead work harder towards common objectives than ever.<\/p>\n

For example, priority lists of high-quality infrastructure projects at concessional rates that best encompass African needs need to be put together \u2013 projects that create jobs, generate profits, facilitate trade and cut supply chain costs.<\/p>\n

Africans need to make proposals for where China\u2019s $10bn SDRs can be allocated, to actively seek to promote African exports to China, design new fund structures that support SMEs, and much more.<\/p>\n

Hence, contrary to the headlines, the issue is not that Africans have lost the ball. The issue is that the ball is in African courts and African stakeholders must make sure to play to Africa\u2019s advantage.<\/p>\n

For More News And Analysis About Mauritius<\/a> Follow Africa-Press<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – Mauritius. These targets would shape the China-Africa relationship for the forthcoming three years and beyond. Immediately after the Forum\u2019s close, a flurry of headlines reported the \u2018underwhelming\u2019 $40bn financial commitment from China \u2013 a 33% drop in China\u2019s total financial commitment when compared to the $60bn commitment made at the 2018 FOCAC. The […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":84,"featured_media":34991,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,12],"tags":[233,245,474,241],"class_list":["post-34993","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-all-news","category-policy","tag-africa-press","tag-africa-press-mauritius","tag-african","tag-mauritius"],"yoast_head":"\nFOCAC8: A success or failure for Africa? - Mauritius<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"These targets would shape the China-Africa relationship for the forthcoming three years and beyond. 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