{"id":56700,"date":"2025-07-02T08:35:18","date_gmt":"2025-07-02T08:35:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mauritius\/all-news\/israel-iran-ceasefire-expected-to-lower-oil-prices"},"modified":"2025-07-02T09:01:07","modified_gmt":"2025-07-02T09:01:07","slug":"israel-iran-ceasefire-expected-to-lower-oil-prices","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mauritius\/all-news\/israel-iran-ceasefire-expected-to-lower-oil-prices","title":{"rendered":"Israel-Iran Ceasefire Expected to Lower Oil Prices"},"content":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – Mauritius. <\/strong><\/span>Oil prices slumped more than 12% last week, snapping a three-week rally, with analysts expecting them to stabilize around the $60 range in the near term if a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran is maintained.<\/p>\n

Brent crude climbed to $77.81 a barrel on June 23 after US strikes targeted Iranian nuclear facilities, briefly touching a five-month peak. But prices tumbled 8.5% in a single session to $69.48 after Iran’s retaliatory strike on a US base in Qatar was deemed limited in scope. It marked Brent’s biggest daily loss since July 2022.<\/p>\n

Downward pressure intensified after June 24, when reports of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel bolstered expectations of uninterrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for roughly 20 million barrels of crude and petroleum products each day.<\/p>\n

Brent crude fell 12.6% to $66.33 a barrel in the week ending June 27, marking its steepest weekly drop since March 2023.<\/p>\n

Despite recent volatility, analysts expect prices to stabilize around the $60 range in the coming period as geopolitical risk premiums ease and fundamental supply-demand dynamics regain control.<\/p>\n

OPEC+ decisions to shape near-term oil price trajectory<\/b><\/p>\n

The trajectory of oil prices will hinge on signals from the upcoming meeting of OPEC+, comprising OPEC members and other non-OPEC producers, Ajay Parmar, director of Oil Markets and Energy Transition at Independent Commodity Intelligence Services (ICIS), told Anadolu.<\/p>\n

Parmar expects prices to stabilize around current levels until there is clearer guidance from OPEC+ following their production meeting on July 6.<\/p>\n

If OPEC+ chooses to raise supplies further, prices could fall back from current levels into the mid-$60s, he said.<\/p>\n

Parmar noted that US President Donald Trump’s pressure to push oil prices lower has had limited impact, noting that seasonal peak demand is supporting prices.<\/p>\n

He added that the key driver remains on the supply side, where the OPEC+ alliance holds significant control.<\/p>\n

“The main area for market participants to watch is OPEC+. Its production decisions are the most significant factor to keep an eye out for in the coming weeks,” Parmar said.<\/p>\n

Sustained low prices not viable for long-term production<\/b><\/p>\n

Yesar Al-Maleki, a Gulf analyst at Middle East Economic Survey (MEES), noted that prices are being supported by the absence of direct attacks on vital oil infrastructure in the Israel-Iran conflict and by a persistent supply glut in the market.<\/p>\n

“In the near term, strong summer demand, including for oil in Middle East power generation, will continue to support prices and help drawdowns in global inventories,” Al-Maleki said.<\/p>\n

Currently at $68 a barrel, the Brent price is comfortably above April and May levels before the crisis, he said, adding: “That said, from winter later this year and into Q1 next year, surpluses have been projected, which could press prices downward.”<\/p>\n

Commenting on the impact of Trump’s calls for lower oil prices on US producers, Al-Maleki said that while short-term price spikes have allowed producers to lock in prices for the year, sustained low prices are not viable for long-term production.<\/p>\n

He described OPEC+ policy as a crucial factor, likening the group to “the central bank of the oil market.<\/p>\n

“Relatively higher seasonal demand\u2014oil demand typically peaks in summer worldwide\u2014is expected to support another round of accelerated production additions by key OPEC+ members in August,” he added.<\/p>\n

Al-Maleki noted that additional volumes from higher quotas may fall short, as some members have already exceeded their production limits.<\/p>\n

He added that it remains to be seen how the group will adjust its policy for the rest of the year and into 2026.<\/p>\n

Jorge Leon, senior vice president at Norway-based consultancy Rystad Energy, also warned that prices could decline further in the coming weeks, adding that they are trending toward the $60 level.<\/p>\n

“The reason is that the geopolitical risk premium is evaporating, OPEC+ will likely continue increasing production and also Iran is allowed to sell crude to China freely,” Leon said.<\/p>\n

“All those elements point towards a bearish market in the weeks to come,” he added.<\/p>\n

For More News And Analysis About Mauritius<\/span> Follow Africa-Press<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – Mauritius. Oil prices slumped more than 12% last week, snapping a three-week rally, with analysts expecting them to stabilize around the $60 range in the near term if a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran is maintained. Brent crude climbed to $77.81 a barrel on June 23 after US strikes targeted Iranian nuclear […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":84,"featured_media":56699,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,5],"tags":[2704,4961,2692,2167,241,2705,6391,2825],"class_list":["post-56700","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-all-news","category-economy","tag-brent","tag-ceasefire","tag-iran","tag-israel","tag-mauritius","tag-oil","tag-us-strike","tag-wti"],"yoast_head":"\nIsrael-Iran Ceasefire Expected to Lower Oil Prices - Mauritius<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Oil prices slumped more than 12% last week, snapping a three-week rally, with analysts expecting them to stabilize aroun ...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mauritius\/all-news\/israel-iran-ceasefire-expected-to-lower-oil-prices\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Israel-Iran Ceasefire Expected to Lower Oil Prices\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Oil prices slumped more than 12% last week, snapping a three-week rally, with analysts expecting them to stabilize aroun ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mauritius\/all-news\/israel-iran-ceasefire-expected-to-lower-oil-prices\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Mauritius\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/AfricaPressTunisiaa\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-07-02T08:35:18+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-07-02T09:01:07+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/static.africa-press.net\/mauritius\/sites\/61\/2025\/07\/sm_1751430523.661158.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"864\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"486\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"cfeditoren\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"cfeditoren\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mauritius\/all-news\/israel-iran-ceasefire-expected-to-lower-oil-prices#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mauritius\/all-news\/israel-iran-ceasefire-expected-to-lower-oil-prices\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"cfeditoren\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mauritius\/#\/schema\/person\/068c7ab4e9634ae78ec5d54ec46598bb\"},\"headline\":\"Israel-Iran Ceasefire Expected to Lower Oil Prices\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-07-02T08:35:18+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-07-02T09:01:07+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mauritius\/all-news\/israel-iran-ceasefire-expected-to-lower-oil-prices\"},\"wordCount\":672,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mauritius\/all-news\/israel-iran-ceasefire-expected-to-lower-oil-prices#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/static.africa-press.net\/mauritius\/sites\/61\/2025\/07\/sm_1751430523.661158.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Brent\",\"ceasefire\",\"Iran\",\"Israel\",\"Mauritius\",\"oil\",\"US strike\",\"WTI\"],\"articleSection\":[\"all news\",\"economy\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mauritius\/all-news\/israel-iran-ceasefire-expected-to-lower-oil-prices#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mauritius\/all-news\/israel-iran-ceasefire-expected-to-lower-oil-prices\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mauritius\/all-news\/israel-iran-ceasefire-expected-to-lower-oil-prices\",\"name\":\"Israel-Iran Ceasefire Expected to Lower Oil Prices - 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