Africa-Press – Mozambique. The consultancy Oxford Economics is preparing to lower its forecast for Mozambique’s economic growth next year, from 3.8% to 2.5%, due to probable fiscal consolidation and the scheduled decline in gas production in 2026.
“Growth will be limited due to fiscal consolidation efforts, which a new International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme is likely to reinforce, and at the same time, the scheduled maintenance work on the floating liquefied natural gas Coral Sul project will also result in a temporary decline in natural gas and condensate production. Therefore, it is likely we will reduce our real GDP growth forecast for 2026 from 3.8% to 2.5%,” say the analysts.
In an analysis sent to clients, which Lusa had access to, the African department of this British consultancy also lowers the growth forecast for this year, from 1.8% to 1.4%, following a 1.9% drop in economic activity in the first three quarters of this year compared to the same period last year.
“The economic outlook for next year is slightly more favourable, thanks to improved political stability and sentiment, which will support a continued recovery in the services sector, while increased investment and growth in construction related to LNG project development will also boost growth,” write the analysts.
This quarter, they conclude, the numbers are expected to worsen due to cyclical effects: “There is a seasonal agricultural effect in the fourth quarter, as it is the lean period before the harvest, which usually results in a quarterly decline, but despite this we expect the economy to record a large jump in annual growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 due to base effects from post-electoral disturbances in the fourth quarter of 2024.”
Economic activity in Mozambique fell by 0.85% in the third quarter, year-on-year, accumulating a year of consecutive declines, according to central bank data.
“The decline in economic activity in the third quarter of 2025, measured by the annual change in Gross Domestic Product (GDP), continues to reflect the effects of post-electoral tension, with a greater impact on the secondary and tertiary sectors; from the expenditure perspective, the GDP contraction results mainly from reduced investment and private consumption,” says a note from the Bank of Mozambique, quoting data from the National Institute of Statistics.
Mozambique’s economy had already recorded a contraction of 5.68% in the fourth quarter of 2024, a period of strong contestation of the general elections held on 9 October that year, followed by declines of 3.92% and 0.94%, respectively, in the first and second quarters of this year.
The Mozambican government admits a “substantially more adverse” financial scenario compared to that foreseen in the draft Economic and Social Plan and State Budget (PESOE) for 2026, cutting growth forecasts to 1.6% this year, as well as expected revenues in 2026.
“Economic growth recovery is projected at 2.8% in 2026, compared to the forecast of 1.6% for 2025, mainly supported by expansion in the services sector, growth in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, as well as dynamism in the agricultural sector and significant investments in the energy sector,” according to the government’s budget proposal for 2026.
In the 2025 PESOE law — approved only in May due to the general elections in October 2024 — the government had forecast economic growth of 2.9% this year (1.9% in 2024).
