Africa-Press – Mozambique. The Economic Climate Indicator for Mozambican companies slowed in the fourth quarter of 2025, marking the sixth consecutive quarterly decline, according to data released by the National Statistics Institute (INE).
The Economic Climate Indicator is a synthetic, sentiment-based index used by national statistical institutions, including Mozambique’s National Statistics Institute, to gauge the state of the economy based on business surveys, and is known by its Portuguese acronym, ICE. It measures the opinions and expectations of economic agents regarding their operating environment, providing a leading indicator of economic activity.
The ICE indicator for the fourth quarter of 2025 shows a “slowdown for the sixth consecutive quarter” that aligns with the employment outlook, which has been declining for the third consecutive quarter. This comes despite the demand outlook recording a positive assessment, breaking the downward trend seen since the second quarter of 2024.
This indicator reached 89.8 points in the third quarter of last year, compared with 90.3 points in the previous quarter, approaching the historic low of 81.5 points recorded in the third quarter of 2020. In the fourth quarter of 2025, it declined again, to 88.5 points.
The INE document adds that, in sectoral terms, this “unfavourable assessment” of the economic climate was due, above all, to “the sharp fall in confidence in the trade sector”, in this case “contrary to the expectation of the previous quarter and the slight reduction in services, despite the positive assessment recorded in industrial production activity”.
Over the same period, from October to December 2025, the ICE demand expectation indicator even “recovered, breaking the negative assessment recorded since the second quarter of 2024”, but the respective balance remained below the average of its historical series.
“This improvement was due to favourable forecasts recorded across all sectors, with industrial production and services showing a reversal compared to the third quarter of 2025, while trade maintained the gradual improvement trend that began in the second quarter,” the report states.
In the same period, the employment expectation indicator “stabilised, despite recording a substantial decline since the beginning of the year for the fourth consecutive quarter”.
“This unfavourable outlook for future employment was mainly influenced by the negative assessment of the indicator in the trade sector, despite the significant improvements recorded in industrial production and services compared with the previous quarter,” the study notes.
The ICE indicator for price expectations for goods and services “recorded a decline, thus continuing its unfavourable trend for the fourth consecutive quarter”, after having reached a peak over the previous 13 quarters in the fourth quarter of 2024.
The document also notes that, on average, 40.7% of the companies surveyed “faced some obstacle” during this period, representing an increase of 1.2 percentage points compared with the previous quarter, growth that was “influenced” by all sectors.
However, the production industry stands out, where 46.0% of companies reported some constraint, followed by services (39.0%) and trade (37.0%).
Between October 2024 and March 2025, the Mozambican economy was affected by violent post-election protests, which paralysed economic activity, triggered an economic recession and led to the deaths of more than 400 people, mainly in clashes with the police.
