What You Need to Know
The World Bank has significantly downgraded Mozambique's economic growth forecast to 0.9% for this year, down from 3%. This revision is part of a broader adjustment for nearly all Portuguese-speaking African countries, with inflation rates rising sharply across the region. Guinea-Bissau is the only exception, expected to grow by 5.3%.
Africa-Press – Mozambique. Mozambique saw the most significant revision, expected to record growth of 0.9%, rather than 3% as forecast in October 2025.
The World Bank has downgraded its economic growth forecasts for nearly all Portuguese-speaking African Countries (PALOP) for this year, with Guinea-Bissau being the sole exception, expecting a sharp rise in inflation across these economies.
According to the World Bank’s biannual regional economic update on African economies (Africa Economic Update – Making Industrial Policy Work in Africa], released on Wednesday in Washington, Guinea-Bissau is expected to grow by 5.3% this year, a slight increase from the 5.2% projected for October 2025.
World Bank economists have lowered growth expectations for the rest of the PALOP countries: Angola is expected to grow by 2.4% rather than 2.6%, as forecast in October 2025, with the same applying to Cabo Verde, which has seen its economic growth forecast reduced from 5.2% to 4.8%.
São Tomé and Príncipe is expected to grow by 2.9%, rather than 4% as forecast in October.
Mozambique saw the most significant revision, expected to record growth of 0.9%, rather than 3% as forecast in October 2025.
Equatorial Guinea is expected to enter another recession with a 3.5% contraction, a sharp reversal from the previously estimated 0.4% GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth.
Inflation
The World Bank attributed these revisions largely to the effects of the conflict in the Middle East, revealing a significant rise in inflation in these countries, with Angola leading the way, recording a price rise of around 15%, followed by São Tomé and Príncipe, where prices are expected to rise by 11%.
In Mozambique, the rise is expected to be 7.5%, in Equatorial Guinea 6.2%, in Guinea-Bissau 5.8% and in Cabo Verde inflation is expected to be 3.2%, with all these figures representing increases compared to the October 2025 forecasts, with Guinea-Bissau standing out, having seen its forecast almost triple, from 2% to 5.8%.
On average, the PALOP nations are projected to grow by 2%, less than half the average for Sub-Saharan Africa, which is set at 4.1%, 0.3 percentage points lower than forecast in October 2025.
“Among the countries in the region, some of the largest economies have had their forecasts revised downwards for 2026, namely Angola, Kenya, Mozambique, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa and Zambia”, the report said, adding that “around 60% of the countries in the region (29 out of 47) have seen their growth forecasts for 2026 revised downwards”.
World Bank economists warned that the downward revisions to economic growth forecasts for the region indicated a decline in personal incomes, highlighting that 15 of the 47 countries in the region, that is, nearly a third, would see per capita income fall below 2014 levels, with nine of those 15 nations experiencing a drop of more than 10%.
“The decline is particularly severe in five countries: Angola, Equatorial Guinea, the Republic of the Congo, South Sudan and Sudan, where per capita income is more than 25% below 2014 levels”, World Bank economists said, explaining that these were “countries highly dependent on oil exports or affected by conflict”.
On the other hand, they say, “40% of the region’s countries (19 out of 47) have a per capita income at least 25% higher than the 2014 level”, and in five countries, including Cabo Verde, “real per capita income in 2026 is at least 45% higher than the 2014 level”.
The World Bank’s recent economic update highlights the challenges faced by Portuguese-speaking African countries, particularly due to external factors like the conflict in the Middle East. Mozambique, once projected for higher growth, now faces significant economic hurdles, including rising inflation, which is expected to reach 7.5% this year. This situation reflects broader economic trends affecting the region, where many countries are experiencing downward revisions in growth forecasts and declines in personal incomes.
