What You Need to Know
The Economic Climate Indicator (ICE) for Mozambique indicates a continued decline in business confidence for the seventh consecutive quarter, reaching 87.8 points in early 2026. Factors contributing to this downturn include stagnating employment outlooks and demand forecasts, particularly in the industrial and trade sectors, despite some improvements in the services sector.
Africa-Press – Mozambique. The Economic Climate Indicator (Indicador de Clima Económico-ICE) for Mozambican businesses recorded a further slowdown in the first quarter of 2026, marking the seventh consecutive period of decline, according to the National Institute of Statistics (INE) data released on Thursday.
The quarterly ICE indicator, which assesses business confidence, points to “a slowdown for the seventh consecutive quarter”, from January to March, saying that it had been influenced by stagnating employment outlooks and demand forecasts.
This indicator stood at 89.8 points in the third quarter of 2025, down from 90.3 points in the previous quarter, approaching the all-time low of 81.5 points recorded in the third quarter of 2020.
In the fourth quarter of 2025, it fell again to 88.7, and now, in the first three months of 2026, it fell to 87.8.
The document said that, in sectoral terms, this unfavourable assessment of the economic climate was primarily due to “a decline in confidence in the industrial sector, contrary to expectations from the previous quarter, and a contraction in the trade sector”, which “continues the downward trend seen in the previous quarter, despite a slight improvement in the services sector”.
On the other hand, it acknowledged that the demand expectations indicator showed gradual improvements that began in the third quarter of 2025, although it remained below the time series average.
Employment prospects were said to have stabilised over the last three quarters following a substantial decline in the first two quarters of 2025, with the respective balance remaining below the average.
“This favourable outlook for future employment was influenced by the positive assessment of the indicator in the trade and services sectors, despite the significant decline in industrial production compared with the previous quarter,” the INE said.
The ICE indicator of price expectations for goods and services also showed improvements, reversing the unfavourable trend observed since the fourth quarter of 2024, with its balance returning to the average.
Meanwhile, constraints on businesses increased in the first quarter of 2026, with an average of 46.3% of respondents acknowledging that they had faced “some obstacle, representing an increase of 5.6 percentage points compared with the previous quarter”, particularly in the areas of industrial production, services and trade.
Mozambique’s economy has faced various challenges in recent years, including fluctuations in business confidence and employment prospects. The Economic Climate Indicator (ICE) serves as a crucial measure of business sentiment, reflecting the overall economic health and expectations of various sectors. The current decline in confidence highlights ongoing issues in industrial production and trade, which have been exacerbated by external economic pressures and internal structural challenges. Historical data shows that such downturns can significantly impact investment and growth prospects in the region.
