{"id":27381,"date":"2022-10-06T15:45:34","date_gmt":"2022-10-06T15:45:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mozambique\/all-news\/insurgency-in-cabo-delgado-mozambique-is-facing-a-marathon-not-a-race-analyst"},"modified":"2022-10-06T15:58:45","modified_gmt":"2022-10-06T15:58:45","slug":"insurgency-in-cabo-delgado-mozambique-is-facing-a-marathon-not-a-race-analyst","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mozambique\/all-news\/insurgency-in-cabo-delgado-mozambique-is-facing-a-marathon-not-a-race-analyst","title":{"rendered":"Insurgency in Cabo Delgado: Mozambique is facing a marathon, not a race \u2013 analyst"},"content":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – Mozambique. <\/strong><\/span>Analyst Jo\u00e3o Feij\u00f3 thinks that armed violence in Cabo Delgado will continue, and that the authorities must be prepared to face \u201ca marathon\u201d, instead of \u201ca race\u201d that is soon over.<\/p>\n

\u201cI think this conflict will be a marathon \u2013 it will not be the 1,500 meters race we thought it would be,\u201d he told Lusa regarding the five years of conflict.<\/p>\n

The insurgent groups \u201cplay with time\u201d and are prepared \u201cto spend 10 or 20 years\u201d terrorizing the region, \u201cliving in the bush, looting and stealing\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe don\u2019t have that time,\u201d he says, alluding to the country\u2019s desire to get oil majors back to exploit natural gas, the need to put an end to a very expensive military intervention and the soldiers\u2019 desire to return home.<\/p>\n

Feij\u00f3 believes that the government has realized that it will have to live with some degree of violence, something that could turn into a \u201clow-intensity conflict\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe government itself has admitted that the problem of instability will last for several years, and we have to live with it,\u201d he adds.<\/p>\n

What is not known is whether this will be enough to restart the gas projects.<\/p>\n

The researcher says that the answer can only come from TotalEnergies, the oil major that had to abandon the works near Palma after the March 2021 attack, and which says it is still waiting for improved security.<\/p>\n

The attack marked the beginning of a third phase of the conflict, Feij\u00f3 said, in which Mozambique asked for external help and Rwanda entered (along with SAMIM, a mission of the Southern African Development Community), helping to reconquer areas that the state \u201cwas unable to manage\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt was a turning point,\u201d he underlines.<\/p>\n

The first attack took place in Moc\u00edmboa da Praia on October 5, 2017, in what he classifies as the first phase of the conflict.<\/p>\n

A second phase followed, with great pressure from rebel forces, which grew, established bases, occupied territory and led to the suspension of Mozambique\u2019s gas projects, the largest private investment in Africa.<\/p>\n

The military offensive by the allied forces reconquered the areas around gas-relevant sites like Palma and Moc\u00edmboa da Praia, among others, and destroyed the large insurgent bases, where \u201cthey had contact with the population\u201d and \u201ccreated an entity in opposition to the Government\u201d, in Feijo\u2019s words.<\/p>\n

The remaining rebels returned to the bush and restarted occasional attacks against relatively remote communities, only now expanding their area of action to include southern districts of Cabo Delgado and in Nampula province.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe took two steps forward and one backward,\u201d Feij\u00f3 says.<\/p>\n

Five years on, \u201ca great fog remains. It is not clear\u201d who Mozambique is fighting.<\/p>\n

\u201cPerhaps it is clear to the Mozambican, Rwandan or SAMIM intelligence services, but this information is not passed on to the public.\u201d<\/p>\n

Some attacks have been claimed by the Islamic State group, but \u201cwhat is known\u201d told by \u201cthose who have been with the insurgents, is that the group is not that homogeneous\u201d.<\/p>\n

There are foreigners and there are Mozambicans, \u201cwith different levels of radicalization and motivation\u201d.<\/p>\n

There are about 800,000 internally displaced people due to the conflict, according to the International Organization for Migration (IOM), and 4,000 deaths, according to the conflict registry project, ACLED.<\/p>\n

For More News And Analysis About Mozambique<\/a> Follow Africa-Press<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – Mozambique. Analyst Jo\u00e3o Feij\u00f3 thinks that armed violence in Cabo Delgado will continue, and that the authorities must be prepared to face \u201ca marathon\u201d, instead of \u201ca race\u201d that is soon over. \u201cI think this conflict will be a marathon \u2013 it will not be the 1,500 meters race we thought it would […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":84,"featured_media":27380,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,6,8,16],"tags":[233,281,283],"class_list":["post-27381","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-all-news","category-files","category-homepage-english","category-twitter","tag-africa-press","tag-africa-press-mozambique","tag-mozambique"],"yoast_head":"\nInsurgency in Cabo Delgado: Mozambique is facing a marathon, not a race \u2013 analyst - Mozambique<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Analyst Jo\u00e3o 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