{"id":3016,"date":"2021-07-23T15:01:23","date_gmt":"2021-07-23T15:01:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mozambique\/?p=3016"},"modified":"2021-07-23T14:51:11","modified_gmt":"2021-07-23T14:51:11","slug":"analysis-mozambiques-gas-ambitions-rest-on-distant-hope-of-peace-reuters","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mozambique\/all-news\/analysis-mozambiques-gas-ambitions-rest-on-distant-hope-of-peace-reuters","title":{"rendered":"Mozambique\u2019s gas ambitions rest on distant hope of peace"},"content":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press<\/a> – Mozambique<\/a>. <\/strong><\/span>The future of Mozambique\u2019s gas ambitions hinges on its ability to end a deadly insurgency linked to Islamic State, but if peace is the answer the southern African country and French energy giant TotalEnergies may have a problem.<\/p>\n

Four months after gunmen overran Palma, a town housing TotalEnergies contractors near its Afungi site in Cabo Delgado province, the insurgents still control swathes of territory and a key port while the army is in tatters, security experts, military personnel, company officials and insiders told Reuters.<\/p>\n

TotalEnergies has said its $20 billion gas project will remain on hold until security is restored in the province in a \u201cverifiable and sustainable manner\u201d. At the end of April, it estimated the delays would last at least a year.<\/p>\n

The Mozambican government says Palma itself is now pacified and it is working to ensure peace in Cabo Delgado.<\/p>\n

But as recently as June, the United Nations refugee agency said people fleeing areas adjacent to the TotalEnergies site reported ongoing insecurity and gunfire.<\/p>\n

\u201cA year strikes me as very optimistic,\u201d said Sam Ratner, an analyst with Cabo Ligado, a media and civil society project tracking the violence in northern Mozambique. An even bigger project led by Exxon Mobil is now also on hold with minority partner Galp telling Reuters that re-establishing security was essential and that it would not move forward until TotalEnergies returns.<\/p>\n

TotalEnergies declined to comment for this article. An Exxon spokesperson said the company continues to evaluate the security situation. Government officials did not respond to questions.<\/p>\n

Mozambique\u2019s gas reserves are estimated at some 100 trillion cubic feet, putting the country 11th in world rankings, and the two liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects are at the heart of the transformation plan of one of the world\u2019s poorest countries.<\/p>\n

TotalEnergies and Exxon, meanwhile, hope Mozambique will help plug LNG shortfalls expected in the middle of the decade. TotalEnergie\u2019s project was due to produce 12.9 million tonnes per annum initially from 2024 which Credit Suisse estimates is equivalent to about a year\u2019s worth of global LNG demand growth.<\/p>\n

NO MATCH<\/b><\/p>\n

Security analysts, however, say the military deficiencies that allowed the insurgency to take hold in the north of Mozambique won\u2019t be easily reversed. They say soldiers are ill-equipped, undisciplined and poorly paid, leading to low morale.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe are nowhere near a match for them,\u201d one soldier said of the Islamists after the Palma attack, adding that the insurgents also knew the terrain better.<\/p>\n

The Southern African Development Community (SADC) has agreed to send soldiers to the region after it secured a concession from Mozambique\u2019s President Filipe Nyusi, who had initially resisted any foreign intervention. Some Rwandan troops have also started to arrive in Cabo Delgado. But SADC has no counter-insurgency experience, nor has it provided details of troop numbers, deployment dates or the mission\u2019s scope. Its initial budget of $12 million is tiny given the scale of the task, said Alexandre Raymakers, senior Africa analyst at Verisk Maplecroft.<\/p>\n

SADC did not respond to a request for comment. The United States, Portugal and European Union have also offered help with training, logistics and intelligence to tackle the Islamist insurgency, which erupted in 2017 and has killed thousands of civilians, soldiers and militants.<\/p>\n

But experts \u2013 pointing to examples such as France\u2019s decade-long counter-insurgency efforts in West Africa\u2019s Sahel region \u2013 warn such assistance could take years to show results.<\/p>\n

And if the attack on Palma is anything to go by, the local forces will need more training.<\/p>\n

Running away<\/b><\/p>\n

After a spike in violence forced TotalEnergies to suspend work last year, it asked the government for a 1,000-strong force to protect its site and a 25 km (15 mile) security perimeter.<\/p>\n

But even as they sought to shore up Afungi, the insurgents were closing in. Hours after TotalEnergies announced the resumption of work on March 24, they attacked, eventually getting within 2 km of the site and forcing its evacuation.<\/p>\n

The troops protecting Afungi did not defend the town, a contractor whose firm was in communication with the company and a person with direct knowledge of TotalEnergies\u2019 operation said.<\/p>\n

Hundreds of contractors supporting the project were caught in the violence. At least one was killed trying to escape from a besieged hotel. Five told Reuters they would not return without greater assurances from TotalEnergies about security.<\/p>\n

In the months ahead of the attack, government forces had left Mocimboa da Praia \u2013 a port just 80 km away \u2013 in insurgent hands since August, allowing them a launch pad from which some analysts believe they staged the Palma attack. Footage posted by Islamic State\u2019s Amaq news agency, which a Reuters\u2019 analysis geolocated to the port town, showed fighters gathering there, probably in the days before the Palma attack.<\/p>\n

Security firms advising Palma-based contractors flagged nearby probing attacks ahead of the assault, internal messages seen by Reuters showed. But there was no noticeable increase in security in the town, said four contractors living there.<\/p>\n

During the fighting, two eye witnesses told Reuters they saw soldiers fleeing. Those who stayed said they were out gunned. Vehicles, businesses, contractors\u2019 sites and banks were looted during the violence, analysts say, with some spoils carried off by the insurgents giving them a temporary boost.<\/p>\n

Fort Knox won\u2019t work<\/b><\/p>\n

The ordeal convinced TotalEnergies that the insecurity pervading Cabo Delgado province could no longer be tolerated.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s not Total that\u2019s going to re-establish peace,\u201d Patrick Pouyanne, chief executive of TotalEnergies, told investors in May. \u201cWe\u2019re not going to build a facility inside a Fort Knox \u2026 that won\u2019t work.\u201d And military action alone won\u2019t address the political and economic exclusion feeding the insurgents\u2019 ranks, said Dino Mahtani of the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based research group.<\/p>\n

\u201cMilitary action needs to take place, but in a measured way that dovetails with the efforts of the state to also remedy what is a grass roots problem,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

A TotalEnergies source told Reuters on condition of anonymity that the company\u2019s engineers might look again at the option of moving the project offshore but that would have its own technical and political challenges.<\/p>\n

Such a move would require the government to accept missing out on the boost to local jobs and the poor northern region in general it is counting on for economic development, an official working with TotalEnergies said.<\/p>\n

Ultimately, success hinges on the Mozambican authorities, though time was running out, the official said. \u201cI don\u2019t see a short-term solution \u2026 The government has failed so many times.\u201d<\/p>\n

By<\/b><\/p>\n

Emma Rumney and David Lewis<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – Mozambique. The future of Mozambique\u2019s gas ambitions hinges on its ability to end a deadly insurgency linked to Islamic State, but if peace is the answer the southern African country and French energy giant TotalEnergies may have a problem. Four months after gunmen overran Palma, a town housing TotalEnergies contractors near its Afungi […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":84,"featured_media":3015,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,6,7,8,16],"tags":[233,281,283],"class_list":["post-3016","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-all-news","category-files","category-head-lines","category-homepage-english","category-twitter","tag-africa-press","tag-africa-press-mozambique","tag-mozambique"],"yoast_head":"\nMozambique\u2019s gas ambitions rest on distant hope of peace - Mozambique<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The future of Mozambique\u2019s gas ambitions hinges on its ability to end a deadly insurgency linked to Islamic State, but i ...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mozambique\/all-news\/analysis-mozambiques-gas-ambitions-rest-on-distant-hope-of-peace-reuters\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Mozambique\u2019s gas ambitions rest on distant hope of peace\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The future of Mozambique\u2019s gas ambitions hinges on its ability to end a deadly insurgency linked to Islamic State, but i ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mozambique\/all-news\/analysis-mozambiques-gas-ambitions-rest-on-distant-hope-of-peace-reuters\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Mozambique\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/AfricaPressTunisiaa\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2021-07-23T15:01:23+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/static.africa-press.net\/mozambique\/sites\/64\/2021\/07\/img-60fad724b5699.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"675\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"cfeditoren\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"cfeditoren\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mozambique\/all-news\/analysis-mozambiques-gas-ambitions-rest-on-distant-hope-of-peace-reuters#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mozambique\/all-news\/analysis-mozambiques-gas-ambitions-rest-on-distant-hope-of-peace-reuters\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"cfeditoren\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mozambique\/#\/schema\/person\/068c7ab4e9634ae78ec5d54ec46598bb\"},\"headline\":\"Mozambique\u2019s gas ambitions rest on distant hope of peace\",\"datePublished\":\"2021-07-23T15:01:23+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mozambique\/all-news\/analysis-mozambiques-gas-ambitions-rest-on-distant-hope-of-peace-reuters\"},\"wordCount\":1103,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mozambique\/all-news\/analysis-mozambiques-gas-ambitions-rest-on-distant-hope-of-peace-reuters#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/static.africa-press.net\/mozambique\/sites\/64\/2021\/07\/img-60fad724b5699.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Africa Press\",\"Africa Press-Mozambique\",\"Mozambique\"],\"articleSection\":[\"all news\",\"files\",\"head lines\",\"homepage-english\",\"twitter\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mozambique\/all-news\/analysis-mozambiques-gas-ambitions-rest-on-distant-hope-of-peace-reuters#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mozambique\/all-news\/analysis-mozambiques-gas-ambitions-rest-on-distant-hope-of-peace-reuters\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mozambique\/all-news\/analysis-mozambiques-gas-ambitions-rest-on-distant-hope-of-peace-reuters\",\"name\":\"Mozambique\u2019s gas ambitions rest on distant hope of peace - 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