{"id":41480,"date":"2023-06-27T11:24:31","date_gmt":"2023-06-27T11:24:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mozambique\/all-news\/mozambique-lc-ratings-temporarily-lowered-to-sd-on-delayed-payments-ccc-fc-ratings-affirmed"},"modified":"2023-06-27T11:35:55","modified_gmt":"2023-06-27T11:35:55","slug":"mozambique-lc-ratings-temporarily-lowered-to-sd-on-delayed-payments-ccc-fc-ratings-affirmed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mozambique\/all-news\/mozambique-lc-ratings-temporarily-lowered-to-sd-on-delayed-payments-ccc-fc-ratings-affirmed","title":{"rendered":"Mozambique LC ratings temporarily lowered to \u2018SD\u2019 on delayed payments; \u2018CCC+\u2019 FC ratings affirmed"},"content":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – Mozambique. <\/strong><\/span>Rating Action<\/b><\/p>\n

On June 20, 2023, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long- and short-term LC sovereign credit ratings on Mozambique to \u2018SD\/SD\u2019 from \u2018B-\/B\u2019. We also affirmed our FC long- and short-term sovereign credit ratings at \u2018CCC+\/C\u2019. The outlook on the FC rating remains stable.<\/p>\n

We maintained our transfer and convertibility assessment at \u2018CCC+\u2019.<\/p>\n

As a sovereign rating (as defined in EU CRA Regulation 1060\/2009 \u201cEU CRA Regulation\u201d), the ratings on Mozambique are subject to certain publication restrictions set out in article 8a of the EU CRA Regulation, including publication in accordance with a pre-established calendar (see \u201cCalendar Of 2023 EMEA Sovereign, Regional, And Local Government Rating Publication Dates,\u201d published Dec. 22, 2022, on RatingsDirect). Under the EU CRA Regulation, deviations from the announced calendar are allowed only in limited circumstances and must be accompanied by a detailed explanation of the reasons for the deviation. In this case, the reason for the deviation is the late payments made on government debt. The date of the next scheduled review is Oct. 20, 2023.<\/p>\n

Outlook<\/b><\/p>\n

We do not assign outlooks to SD ratings.<\/p>\n

The stable outlook on the FC rating reflects the balance between our view of Mozambique\u2019s ability to meet its financial obligations in the next 12 months, and uncertainties as to when significant liquefied natural gas (LNG) production will commence and the associated revenue will become available to the government. Significant delays in this regard could undermine the government\u2019s ability to meet its commercial obligations over the medium term (particularly its 2031 Eurobond).<\/p>\n

Downside scenario<\/b><\/p>\n

We could lower the long-term FC ratings over the next 12 months if we assess that additional economic or external shocks, or further delays to large gas projects, are likely to make the government less willing or able to service its commercial debt obligations in a timely manner.<\/p>\n

Upside scenario<\/b><\/p>\n

We could raise the ratings if we were to expect government revenue to increase materially, perhaps due to a sharp rise in gas production, reducing the risk of further delayed payments to creditors or of a distressed restructuring of Mozambique\u2019s 2031 Eurobond.<\/p>\n

Rationale<\/b><\/p>\n

We lowered our sovereign LC credit ratings on Mozambique to \u2018SD\u2019 following late payment of principal and interest on domestic commercial debt (treasury bonds), over February-May 2023. During this period, the government delayed payment beyond the due date on some of its LC long-term debt by nine days on average, and in some instances, by up to three weeks, but full information on this became available with a delay.<\/p>\n

In the absence of stated grace periods as per S&P Global Ratings Definitions, to avoid default, payments are required to be made within five business days of the due date. We therefore consider the delayed payments on the LC long-term debt a default.<\/p>\n

Cyclone Freddy, which was active in late February to early March, exacerbated an already weak fiscal position in Mozambique, increasing government spending requirements for humanitarian aid. However, the default continued for a period well beyond that of the weather event. We understand that cash was available for debt service and payment systems continued to function.<\/p>\n

Total late payments on LC debt over the February-May period amounted to Mozambique metical (MZN) 9.4 billion ($148.6 million) with around 11 institutions not receiving timely payment; details relating to late payments were not fully publicly available during that period.<\/p>\n

Over the same period, Mozambique also delayed external debt payments to some noncommercial, bilateral, and multilateral creditors, which we do not consider a default according to \u201cS&P Global Ratings Definitions.\u201d We affirmed our long-term FC sovereign issue ratings at \u2018CCC+\u2019 because the government has remained current on capital and interest payment on its foreign currency commercial debt obligations. We understand Mozambique\u2019s Eurobond holders received coupon payments in full and on time on March 15, 2023.<\/p>\n

Mozambique\u2013Ratings Score Snapshot<\/b><\/p>\n

Key rating factors and score explanation:<\/p>\n

Institutional assessment \u2013 6<\/b><\/p>\n

Weak governance institutions resulting in an uncertain policy environment, including diminished capability and willingness to maintain timely debt service. Debt payment culture is weak, as demonstrated by accumulation of external commercial arrears in 2007-2017 and delayed payments on local currency debt in February-May 2023.<\/p>\n

Economic assessment \u2013 6<\/b><\/p>\n

Based on GDP per capita (US$) and growth trends as per Selected Indicators in Table 1.<\/p>\n

External assessment \u2013 6<\/b><\/p>\n

Based on narrow net external debt and gross external financing needs\/(current account receipts + useable reserves) as per Selected Indicators in Table 1. Loss of access to international capital markets following the debt crisis. There is a risk of marked deterioration in the cost of, or access to, external financing, due to a much weaker external position. The sovereign\u2019s external data lack consistency as demonstrated by material data mismatches of balance of payments and national income accounts data.<\/p>\n

Fiscal assessment: flexibility and performance \u2013 6<\/b><\/p>\n

Based on the change in net general government debt (% of GDP) as per Selected Indicators in Table 1. The sovereign faces shortfalls in basic services and infrastructure, as reflected by its low ranking on the U.N. Development Programs\u2019 human development index.<\/p>\n

Fiscal assessment: debt burden \u2013 6<\/b><\/p>\n

Based on net general government debt (% of GDP) and general government interest expenditure (% of general government revenues) as per Selected Indicators in Table 1. Over 70% of government debt is denominated in foreign currency. Nonresidents hold over 60% of government commercial debt (including Eurobonds). The banking sector\u2019s exposure to the government exceeds 20% of its assets.<\/p>\n

Monetary assessment \u2013 5<\/b><\/p>\n

The exchange rate regime is a managed float. Independence of monetary authority is limited although improving. The sovereign\u2019s weak transmission mechanism is underpinned by low financial intermediation.<\/p>\n

Indicative rating \u2013 b-<\/b><\/p>\n

As per Table 1 of \u201cSovereign Rating Methodology\u201d and \u201cGeneral Criteria.\u201d<\/p>\n

Notches of supplemental adjustments and flexibility \u2013 0<\/b><\/p>\n

We apply the adjustment factor for a cap at \u2018B+\u2019 which is applicable when the institutional assessment is at \u20186\u2019 and debt is at \u20185\u2019 or \u20186\u2019.<\/p>\n

Final rating<\/b>
\nForeign currency CCC+<\/b><\/p>\n

The final rating is based on \u201cGeneral Criteria: Criteria For Assigning \u2018CCC+\u2019, \u2018CCC\u2019, \u2018CCC-\u2018, And \u2018CC\u2019 Ratings.\u201d<\/p>\n

Notches of uplift 0<\/b>
\nLocal currency SD<\/b><\/p>\n

Delayed payments on LC debt are considered a selective default as per S&P Global Ratings\u2019 Definitions.<\/p>\n

For More News And Analysis About Mozambique<\/a> Follow Africa-Press<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – Mozambique. Rating Action On June 20, 2023, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long- and short-term LC sovereign credit ratings on Mozambique to \u2018SD\/SD\u2019 from \u2018B-\/B\u2019. We also affirmed our FC long- and short-term sovereign credit ratings at \u2018CCC+\/C\u2019. The outlook on the FC rating remains stable. We maintained our transfer and convertibility assessment […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":84,"featured_media":41479,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,5],"tags":[233,281,283],"class_list":["post-41480","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-all-news","category-economy","tag-africa-press","tag-africa-press-mozambique","tag-mozambique"],"yoast_head":"\nMozambique LC ratings temporarily lowered to \u2018SD\u2019 on delayed payments; \u2018CCC+\u2019 FC ratings affirmed - Mozambique<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Rating Action On June 20, 2023, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long- and short-term LC sovereign credit rati ...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mozambique\/all-news\/mozambique-lc-ratings-temporarily-lowered-to-sd-on-delayed-payments-ccc-fc-ratings-affirmed\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Mozambique LC ratings temporarily lowered to \u2018SD\u2019 on delayed payments; 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