{"id":47665,"date":"2023-09-30T19:47:39","date_gmt":"2023-09-30T19:47:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mozambique\/all-news\/moodys-sees-growth-at-6-7-debt-at-93-3-this-year"},"modified":"2023-09-30T21:06:47","modified_gmt":"2023-09-30T21:06:47","slug":"moodys-sees-growth-at-6-7-debt-at-93-3-this-year","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mozambique\/all-news\/moodys-sees-growth-at-6-7-debt-at-93-3-this-year","title":{"rendered":"Moody\u2019s sees growth at 6.7%, debt at 93.3% this year"},"content":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – Mozambique. <\/strong><\/span>Moody\u2019s financial agency expects Mozambique\u2019s public debt to drop to 93.3% in 2023, a year when the economy is expected to grow 6.7%, slowing to 5% by 2024.<\/p>\n

\u201cMoody\u2019s projects that real GDP will expand by 6.7% in 2023 and 5% in 2024, from 4.4% in 2022, driven by continuing growth of the primary sector, and in particular the LNG production at Eni S.p.A.\u2019s Coral South (the smaller and more advanced project that started production last year),\u201d the rating agency says.<\/p>\n

In the note released on Friday evening, which downgrades the economic forecast from positive to stable, Moody\u2019s also foresee Mozambican\u2019s public debt improving to 93.3%, but still \u201cwell above the estimated median of Caa-rated peers at 66.1% in 2023\u201d, and below the investment recommendation level.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe debt trajectory is also vulnerable to currency depreciation and exposed to the risk of materialisation of contingent liabilities related to guaranteed debt disputed in court\u201d (in the \u2018hidden debts\u2019 case currently passing through the courts).<\/p>\n

\u201cLooking ahead, while the IMF programme is expected to provide an anchor for fiscal policy, fiscal consolidation might prove challenging given Mozambique\u2019s vulnerability to domestic and external shocks,\u201d the note adds.<\/p>\n

Mozambique\u2019s growth trajectory, analysts conclude, is dependent on the resumption of TotalEnergies project in Cabo Delgado, after the suspension of work by 2021 due to terrorist attacks in the region.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere are indications that the security situation in the north has improved, and the authorities expect operations to resume this year, with production potentially starting in 2027. The final investment decision for the Rovuma LNG project, the largest and less advanced project, that was put on hold amid the coronavirus crisis and the challenging security conditions, is still pending, with the authorities expecting it to be finalised in 2025,\u201d Moody\u2019s writes.<\/p>\n

The forecasts for debt and GDP were released in the context of revision of the outlook for the Mozambique economy from positive to stable in a note in which Moody\u2019s also foresees further delays in internal debt payments and the implementation of reforms.<\/p>\n

\u201cMoody\u2019s views a repeat of the delays in debt servicing similar to the ones that occurred earlier this year as possible, particularly in the context of external shocks affecting the liquidity profile. The risk of payment delays counterbalances the positive developments that led to the assignment of a positive outlook in March 2022, which related to the prospects of economic and fiscal gains of a nascent Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) sector and progress on institutional reforms under the IMF program. While these positive trends continue, and the government is implementing a number of corrective measures aimed at preventing future payment delays, it will take longer than originally envisaged for the reforms to enhance overall policy effectiveness to a level consistent with a higher rating,\u201d analysts write.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe outlook change to stable from positive is driven by Moody\u2019s assessment that further delays in debt repayments remain possible in the context of still elevated fiscal pressures and liquidity constraints, which balances otherwise positive credit trends.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cPressures on the budget will persist in the context of security challenges in the north of the country, significant exposure to climate shocks, and upcoming local and general elections in October 2023 and October 2024, respectively, notwithstanding the government\u2019s commitment to fiscal prudence supported by the IMF programme,\u201d Moody\u2019s concludes.<\/p>\n

For More News And Analysis About Mozambique<\/a> Follow Africa-Press<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – Mozambique. Moody\u2019s financial agency expects Mozambique\u2019s public debt to drop to 93.3% in 2023, a year when the economy is expected to grow 6.7%, slowing to 5% by 2024. \u201cMoody\u2019s projects that real GDP will expand by 6.7% in 2023 and 5% in 2024, from 4.4% in 2022, driven by continuing growth of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":84,"featured_media":47664,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,5],"tags":[233,281,283],"class_list":["post-47665","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-all-news","category-economy","tag-africa-press","tag-africa-press-mozambique","tag-mozambique"],"yoast_head":"\nMoody\u2019s sees growth at 6.7%, debt at 93.3% this year - Mozambique<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Moody\u2019s financial agency expects Mozambique\u2019s public debt to drop to 93.3% in 2023, a year when the economy is expected ...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mozambique\/all-news\/moodys-sees-growth-at-6-7-debt-at-93-3-this-year\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Moody\u2019s sees growth at 6.7%, debt at 93.3% this year\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Moody\u2019s financial agency expects Mozambique\u2019s public debt to drop to 93.3% in 2023, a year when the economy is expected ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mozambique\/all-news\/moodys-sees-growth-at-6-7-debt-at-93-3-this-year\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Mozambique\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/AfricaPressTunisiaa\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-09-30T19:47:39+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-09-30T21:06:47+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/static.africa-press.net\/mozambique\/sites\/64\/2023\/09\/sm_1696095158.399285.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1920\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1080\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"cfeditoren\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"cfeditoren\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mozambique\/all-news\/moodys-sees-growth-at-6-7-debt-at-93-3-this-year#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mozambique\/all-news\/moodys-sees-growth-at-6-7-debt-at-93-3-this-year\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"cfeditoren\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mozambique\/#\/schema\/person\/068c7ab4e9634ae78ec5d54ec46598bb\"},\"headline\":\"Moody\u2019s sees growth at 6.7%, debt at 93.3% this year\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-09-30T19:47:39+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-09-30T21:06:47+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mozambique\/all-news\/moodys-sees-growth-at-6-7-debt-at-93-3-this-year\"},\"wordCount\":567,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mozambique\/all-news\/moodys-sees-growth-at-6-7-debt-at-93-3-this-year#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/static.africa-press.net\/mozambique\/sites\/64\/2023\/09\/sm_1696095158.399285.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Africa Press\",\"Africa Press-Mozambique\",\"Mozambique\"],\"articleSection\":[\"all news\",\"economy\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mozambique\/all-news\/moodys-sees-growth-at-6-7-debt-at-93-3-this-year#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mozambique\/all-news\/moodys-sees-growth-at-6-7-debt-at-93-3-this-year\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/mozambique\/all-news\/moodys-sees-growth-at-6-7-debt-at-93-3-this-year\",\"name\":\"Moody\u2019s sees growth at 6.7%, debt at 93.3% this year - 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