Africa-Press – Namibia. VISION 2030 COMMITS NAMIBIA to industrialisation and creating livelihoods for all Namibians by the end of this decade.
Namibia has an opportunity to draw on a number of natural resource endowments that are critical for the world’s transition to a net-zero carbon economy.
In particular, Namibia has world-leading wind and solar energy resources that can form the backbone to establishing a competitive green industrial economy.
Namibia’s own emerging experiences with green hydrogen investment opportunities are testament to this possibility.
Moreover, Namibia has substantial deposits of rare earth, lithium and other minerals which are critical to the energy transitions and have seen substantial price increases over the past five years.
In addition to that, Namibia’s invasive encroacher bush and its potential for hosting abundant forests of seaweed mean that Namibia may be able to unlock sustainable sources of carbon, which, when combined with the green hydrogen molecule and other ingredients, could enable Namibia to manufacture low carbon synthetic fuels.
These resources, combined with Namibia’s proximity to some of the continent’s largest economies and access to excellent maritime transport corridors, provide Namibia with a rich basket of building blocks.
In turn, these opportunities allow the government to consider the possibility of incubating impactful green industrialisation opportunities, that could generate significant economic and – critically – employment opportunities.
Research conducted by McKinsey in conjunction with the government estimated that the full deployment of Namibia’s synthetic fuel strategy could result in 84 000 direct jobs (183 000 in 2040) from activities that include electrolyser assembly, wind and solar farm construction, and pipeline operation.
In addition to this, 60 000 jobs related to concrete manufacturing, basic metals manufacturing, and outsourced business services are estimated to be unlocked.
Finally, using the social accounting matrix, 136 000 jobs are estimated to be induced through restaurants, home building, car manufacturers, clothing manufacturers and others identified as potential contributors to this number.
The strategy further estimated that Namibia’s gross domestic product (GDP) could expand by 34% in real terms by 2030 (50% in 2040), compared to 2021.
These opportunities, no matter how remote, are worthy of serious pursuit.
Turning this strategy into reality would require a whole-of-government approach.
To this effect, the Namibian government, in partnership with its development partners, including the Dutch government, the German government, and the European Commission, have started developing a donor-funded implementation programme that will bring together the best experts in this field from Namibia and abroad to help the country prioritise and operationalise the necessary concrete strategic steps.
The mobilisation and scaling of a green industrial economy will commence with identifying and scoping, and then advancing key priority pioneering projects.
A list of energy-intensive industries that would benefit from low-cost electrons and molecules in Namibia would be the starting place and refined over time by considering industry insights (current drivers of plant location, trade volumes, etc.), additional regional benefits (e.g. regional inputs sourcing), and interviews with leading industrial players to stress test attractiveness and feasibility of locating plants in low-cost regions.
Each new project and industry adds assets and capabilities (e.g., common infrastructure, excess electricity) which can be leveraged into the next industry and project.
Also, green industrial sectors will scale at different points in time in the coming years. Namibia needs to know which industries to pursue, and when and how one can support the growth of another.
The objective would be to provide a clear view on that sequencing and timing, and to highlight the critical links from one industry that support the next so that Namibia can gear towards the progressive accumulation of productive capacities, well-targeted ‘long jumps’, and know-how agglomeration.
The risks and socio-economic opportunities for Namibia stemming from these opportunities will need examination.
In particular, we will consider various issues, including how the scaling of each major industry could impact the economy (GDP, trade balance, etc.) and jobs, including market demand to scale up local small and medium enterprises (e.g., construction firms) and joint ventures or other technology transfer opportunities.
Key resource needs, including land, the need for specialised labour, and financing needs will be identified early, and key stakeholders will be prepared to unlock these through various policy actions.
Key risks, such as environmental risks, supply-chain dependencies, technology and trade-related obstacles, would need mitigation.
By combining the risks and opportunities, we will determine the relative value of industries (jobs, GDP, margins, risk exposure) and thus help to determine the right relative allocation of resources to these industries (e.g., land, government attention, financing, etc.).
We will use these findings to suggest which level of government ownership and leadership would be optimal for each type of opportunity, and which ones could be fully driven by the private sector.
This analysis will support the design of a ‘Strategic Land Allocation Framework’ for Namibia.
Advancing priority projects would require the coordinated engagement of a myriad players, including project owners, key equipment suppliers, off-takers, foreign governments, and various financing institutions.
The Namibian government is signalling its thinking early, because we would like to enable the ordinary Namibian to best prepare to get involved in areas they are best equipped to contribute to.
This initiative would help kick-start a two-year effort designed to lay the foundations for green industrialisation in Namibia.
Namibia is rich with potential and to give birth to this envisioned green industrial revolution, its citizens would need to move together as one nation.
With the support of the president and the Cabinet, I intend to serve Namibia over the next two years to realise this ambition and create a strong foundation for a viable pathway towards the goals of Vision 2030, which, though ambitious, should never be allowed to become out of reach.
* James Mnyupe is Namibia’s presidential adviser on economic matters.
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