Africa-Press – Namibia. Kaviveterue Virere
The Regional Council and Local Authority elections will test the ruling Swapo’s influence amid a continuous decline on the party’s hold on power in some areas.
This was revealed during a presentation hosted by the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) on Wednesday under the theme “Inside the Numbers of Namibia’s 2024 Vote: Fraying Dominance, Fragmented Opposition.”
Taking the results of the general election in 2024, the report hinted a significant change in Namibia’s political environment, with opposition parties gaining significant but fragmented ground.
Max Weylandt, an IPPR researcher, presented the analysis, breaking down data from several constituencies and showing how Swapo’s once-unshakable hold on power has been decreasing since 2019.
Weylandt claimed that the ruling party has lost ground everywhere in the nation.
He said that while the ruling party continues to receive the majority of the nation’s votes, it is increasingly up against competition from several smaller parties, especially in urban areas.
“Urban constituencies are becoming more diverse and competitive. The opposition is still divided, but we are witnessing a rise in political pluralism, which is encouraging for democracy,” he said.
According to Weylandt urban voters tend to be more exposed to varied information sources and therefore more critical of government performance. “In cities, people are more likely to discuss politics, access independent media, and challenge authority. That dynamic makes urban areas fertile ground for opposition politics,” he said.
The IPPR researcher cautioned that opposition parties had their own difficulties. “Over time, there has been a noticeable decline in trust in the ruling party, but that hasn’t resulted in an increase in confidence in opposition parties,” he stated. “Voter apathy and low turnout are becoming serious issues because many voters have lost faith in both sides,” he added.
Smaller regional parties find it difficult to turn local popularity into parliamentary seats since Namibia’s electoral system favours national performance over constituency wins. “The influence of regional parties at the national level is limited by our system,” he emphasised.
He clarified that a party does not necessarily acquire more seats in Parliament just because it controls a small number of constituencies. The statistics also showed that urban centres are experiencing the biggest drops in Swapo support, while rural areas still have a strong leaning for the ruling party. According to Weylandt, “the rural-urban divide remains a key feature of Namibian politics.”
Despite the setbacks for the ruling party, he emphasised that Swapo still enjoys significant support, especially in the northern regions. “They’ve lost ground, yes, but not collapsed. Their dominance is fraying not broken,” he remarked.
He said the ability of opposition parties to come together and organise the expanding number of voters who are still unsure and dissatisfied will be crucial in the upcoming elections. “The ability of the opposition to transform discontent into concerted political force is the true concern.
As of right moment, the data indicates fragmentation rather than consolidation,” he said.
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