{"id":18735,"date":"2022-05-07T15:36:51","date_gmt":"2022-05-07T15:36:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/namibia\/all-news\/the-rise-of-uranium-prices-and-the-potential-for-namibias-economy"},"modified":"2022-05-07T15:54:16","modified_gmt":"2022-05-07T15:54:16","slug":"the-rise-of-uranium-prices-and-the-potential-for-namibias-economy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/namibia\/all-news\/the-rise-of-uranium-prices-and-the-potential-for-namibias-economy","title":{"rendered":"The Rise of Uranium Prices and the Potential for Namibia’s Economy"},"content":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – Namibia. <\/strong><\/span>TOMAS AIPANDA andFESTUS NAMPWEYA<\/p>\n

URANIUM PRICES remained low for more than a decade following Japan’s Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident in 2011, which sparked a sharp decline in the demand for nuclear energy.<\/p>\n

However, over the past few months we have witnessed a rapid turn of fortune in the price of uranium in a short period. Recently, uranium has been trading at $64\/lb, a 200% increase in less than 36 months.<\/p>\n

So, what is driving this price increase, and what does it mean for Namibia?<\/p>\n

The uranium spot price increase has been mainly driven by institutional investors, most notably Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (Sput). Sput is a closed-ended trust created to invest and substantially hold all its assets in physical uranium.<\/p>\n

Sput, the world’s largest physical uranium fund, has been on a buying spree since it was launched in July 2021. It reportedly holds 50,4 million pounds of U3O8 as of March 2022, and this quantity has risen 13,8% from February figures.<\/p>\n

As a result of the ongoing crisis between Russia and Ukraine, there is widespread panic in Western Europe over security of energy supply. Europe relies heavily on Russia for gas and because of this market disruption, countries are now scrambling for alternative energy sources.<\/p>\n

Obvious capacity limitations on renewables, combined with mounting pressure to reduce carbon emissions from fossil fuels, puts nuclear energy back in the race for clean energy.<\/p>\n

In 2020, Namibia was the third largest uranium producer, preceded only by Kazakhstan and Australia.<\/p>\n

Russia and Ukraine follow closely in the top 10 of the world’s leading uranium producers. The rising instability in the eastern region has exerted additional pressure on uranium supply, accelerating further price increases.<\/p>\n

CORE FACTORS<\/p>\n

Whether these prices can be sustained remains open to debate, but the following should be considered in demystifying the role of uranium.<\/p>\n

\u2022 Nuclear energy still has the highest energy capacity factor of 92,5%, followed only by geothermal energy at 74,3%, while solar energy has the lowest capacity factor at 24,9%. This makes nuclear energy the most viable, carbon free, base load globally.<\/p>\n

\u2022 Nuclear fission does not produce carbon emissions during power generation, while coal produces carbon dioxide. Additionally, for each kilogram of uranium, 20 000kg of coal would be required to produce the equivalent amount of energy. This is relevant as the world and Namibia gears towards clean and carbon neutral energy.<\/p>\n

\u2022 Radioactive waste is negligible compared to the enormous amount of energy produced. Assuming Namibia’s demand is 600 MW, an equivalent size nuclear plant would only produce 15t of high level radioactive waste (HLW) while an equivalent coal plant would produce 6mt of carbon dioxide.<\/p>\n

\u2022 Lastly, the analysis of the levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) shows significant variability when it comes to the cost comparison of solar or nuclear generated electricity. Costs differ depending on the entity or institutuion doing the estimation.<\/p>\n

The International Energy Agency (IEA), Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and National Environment Agency (NEA) closely estimates the cost at about US$88\/MWh for solar and US$63\/MWh for nuclear. These figures indicate that nuclear energy is still competitive when compared to solar.<\/p>\n

The World Nuclear Organisation reports that roughly 440 nuclear power reactors with a combined capacity of approximately 390 gigawatts are now operational in 32 nations, with an additional 55 reactors under development in 19 countries.<\/p>\n

WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR US?<\/p>\n

Namibia is the third largest producer of uranium and also holds the seventh largest uranium resources. R\u00f6ssing Uranium and Swakop Uranium are the main producers in Namibia and accounted for 6 384 tonnes of uranium production in 2020.<\/p>\n

A 200% increase in the spot price means mining companies can gain increased revenue and the government can collect increased royalties, which is currently 3% for uranium.<\/p>\n

Although most mines hedge their metal production through long-term supply contracts with fixed prices, there is a clear benefit and opportunity to sell surplus production at spot prices.<\/p>\n

Namibia has two uranium mines that are closed or have been placed on care and maintenance because of previously low uranium prices.<\/p>\n

In addition, three other uranium projects have halted exploration and feasibility studies because of the fall in uranium prices between 2011-2019.<\/p>\n

Increased demand for uranium, coupled with rising uranium prices, would undoubtedly motivate Namibian miners to reopen mines placed on care and maintenance.<\/p>\n

These mines have the ability to close a 40-million-pound production gap between present mine output and utility demand. Increased uranium spot prices will also drive additional investment in uranium exploration in order to identify additional production potential in the vast resource base in the Erongo region.<\/p>\n

IMPACT OF POTENTIAL MINES<\/p>\n

Langer Heinrich Uranium was placed on care and maintenance in 2018. At its peak, Langer Heinrich had around 500 permanent employees and had been producing 2 000 tonnes of uranium a year. Due to improved uranium prices, Paladin Energy has now secured funding to restart Langer Heinrich by 2023, with a LoM (Life of Mine) of 17 years.<\/p>\n

Orano’s Trekkopje Mine was placed on care and maintenance in 2012 following the fall in uranium prices and a significant resource write-down. The past few years have given the shareholders enough time to improve efficiency in the recovery and extraction processes. The mine is envisioned to be one of the largest in the world with a uranium output of 3000t\/per annum and has a projected life of 11 years.<\/p>\n

Bannerman Resources’ Etango project is estimated to become the second biggest uranium mine after Swakop Uranium because of its large shallow resource base. Bannerman will complete a bankable feasibility study in September 2022 and could signal the construction and start of the mine.<\/p>\n

Norasa’s Valencia Mine completed a definitive feasibility study in 2015 and has enabled the declaration of proven and probable reserves that can sustain a 11Mt\/year processing plant and a 15 year life of mine. Norasa is seeking strategic partners to develop this project which should be imminent given the current uranium prices.<\/p>\n

Deep Yellow’s Reptile project at its Tumas and Tubas deposits are still largely at an exploration phase with the exception of Tumas that was approved to proceed to definitive feasibility study. Tumas is estimated to have a lifespan of 11 years to exploit its 104 Mlb uranium resource base.<\/p>\n

The above projects all have the potential to transform the Erongo region into an industrial hub. They also have the potential to help jump-start the economy with much-needed jobs in a short time. Combined, they have the capacity to absorb at least 3 000 jobs within the next three years should the current uranium prices be maintained.<\/p>\n

The infrastructure and skills in Namibia are fully developed for all the projects to be constructed, developed and operated by Namibians.<\/p>\n

WHAT NEXT?<\/p>\n

With so much potential lying dormant, it is imperative that policy makers take an intentional and proactive position to actively advocate for uranium on all relevant local and international platforms.<\/p>\n

Uranium has long been neglected despite its relevance in a carbon free or green energy future. Green hydrogen has been exclusively singled out as a national strategy on energy transition, but the conversation should be expanded to include the exploitation of uranium which is a significant clean energy source.<\/p>\n

Namibia stands to benefit greatly from the imminent uranium boom and thus must be clear and unequivocal in its quest to promote Namibia as a preferred source and producer of uranium. Policy should be adopted to fast-track the exploitation of this resource so as to attract foreign direct investment and create much-needed jobs in the mining industry.<\/p>\n

* Tomas Aipanda is a mining engineer with more than 11 years’ industry experience. Festus Nampweya is a mining engineer with a profound interest in energy and mineral economics.<\/p>\n

For More News And Analysis About Namibia<\/a> Follow Africa-Press<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – Namibia. TOMAS AIPANDA andFESTUS NAMPWEYA URANIUM PRICES remained low for more than a decade following Japan’s Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident in 2011, which sparked a sharp decline in the demand for nuclear energy. However, over the past few months we have witnessed a rapid turn of fortune in the price of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":84,"featured_media":18734,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,5,6,8,16],"tags":[234,236,233],"class_list":["post-18735","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-all-news","category-economy","category-files","category-homepage-english","category-twitter","tag-africa-press","tag-africa-press-namibia","tag-namibia"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Rise of Uranium Prices and the Potential for Namibia's Economy - Namibia<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"TOMAS AIPANDA andFESTUS NAMPWEYA URANIUM PRICES remained low for more than a decade following Japan's Fukushima Daiichi ...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/namibia\/all-news\/the-rise-of-uranium-prices-and-the-potential-for-namibias-economy\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Rise of Uranium Prices and the Potential for Namibia's Economy\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"TOMAS AIPANDA andFESTUS NAMPWEYA URANIUM PRICES remained low for more than a decade following Japan's Fukushima Daiichi ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/namibia\/all-news\/the-rise-of-uranium-prices-and-the-potential-for-namibias-economy\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Namibia\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/AfricaPressTunisiaa\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-05-07T15:36:51+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-05-07T15:54:16+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/static.africa-press.net\/nambia\/sites\/29\/2022\/05\/postQueueImg_3-6276960a551ba.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"720\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"530\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"cfeditoren\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"cfeditoren\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"6 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/namibia\/all-news\/the-rise-of-uranium-prices-and-the-potential-for-namibias-economy#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/namibia\/all-news\/the-rise-of-uranium-prices-and-the-potential-for-namibias-economy\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"cfeditoren\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/namibia\/#\/schema\/person\/068c7ab4e9634ae78ec5d54ec46598bb\"},\"headline\":\"The Rise of Uranium Prices and the Potential for Namibia’s Economy\",\"datePublished\":\"2022-05-07T15:36:51+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-05-07T15:54:16+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/namibia\/all-news\/the-rise-of-uranium-prices-and-the-potential-for-namibias-economy\"},\"wordCount\":1279,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/namibia\/all-news\/the-rise-of-uranium-prices-and-the-potential-for-namibias-economy#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/static.africa-press.net\/nambia\/sites\/29\/2022\/05\/postQueueImg_3-6276960a551ba.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"africa press\",\"Africa Press-Namibia\",\"namibia\"],\"articleSection\":[\"all news\",\"economy\",\"files\",\"homepage-english\",\"twitter\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/namibia\/all-news\/the-rise-of-uranium-prices-and-the-potential-for-namibias-economy#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/namibia\/all-news\/the-rise-of-uranium-prices-and-the-potential-for-namibias-economy\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/namibia\/all-news\/the-rise-of-uranium-prices-and-the-potential-for-namibias-economy\",\"name\":\"The Rise of Uranium Prices and the Potential for Namibia's Economy - 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