Africa-Press – Namibia. <\/strong><\/span>Next year\u2019s Presidential and National Assembly elections will be a tight contest, separating pretenders from contenders.<\/p>\nIt is an election political analysts have billed as prospectively one of the most competitive in Namibia\u2019s history.<\/p>\n
The contest is set to pit deputy Prime Minister Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah (NNN) against opposition leader McHenry Venaani, her former comrades Panduleni Itula, Bernadus Swartbooi, and land activist Job Amupanda.<\/p>\n
Economist Mike Kavekotora (Rally for Democracy and Progress), unionist Evilastus Kaaronda (Swanu), businessman Epaphras Mukwiilongo (Namibia Economic Freedom Fighters) businesswoman Ally Angula, politician Apius Auchab (United Democratic Front), sociologist Utjiua Muinjangue (National Unity Democratic Organisation), veteran politicians Lukato Lukato (National Democratic Party) and Henk Mudge (Republican Party) as well as Hewat Beukes of the Workers\u2019 Revolutionary Party, are all expected to feature on the crowded ballot paper next year.<\/p>\n
In 2019, 11 candidates ran for the presidency, while 15 political parties contested the National Assembly elections.<\/p>\n
There are also fears that as is the case with most democracies, elections do not deliver the kind of political leaders people want and need, as the best amongst the populace usually shy away from political leadership due to negative stereotypes about politics, or feel they would rather focus on business, executive positions or academia.<\/p>\n
But if a day in politics is long, then the next 14 months can easily be equated to a decade.<\/p>\n
There is already fear that the cut-throat competition for the top seat might fail to produce an outright winner, hence forcing a run-off.<\/p>\n
In the coming months, politicians across the divide will be criss-crossing the vast country to canvass for support and promising to take Namibia to the proverbial \u201cPromised Land of milk and honey\u201d \u2013 economic emancipation.<\/p>\n
On the ground, the political machinery is in full motion, oiled to deliver maximum results.<\/p>\n
Over the years, election campaigns in Namibia have been relatively peaceful with exceptions of mud-slinging, tit-for-tat claims of rigging, and some political parties being barred from hosting rallies in areas known as political strongholds of their opponents.<\/p>\n
This week, New Era solicited local analysts\u2019 views to gauge the political climate ahead of next year\u2019s elections.<\/p>\n
Decisive<\/p>\n
Standing head and shoulders above what could decide the outcome of the election is the youth vote, the analysts opined.<\/p>\n
Namibians under the age of 40 are expected to make up more than 60% of the eligible voting population.<\/p>\n
However, there are concerns about the general lack of youth in contemporary politics, as most young Namibians have given up on politics, and see it as an \u201celderly forte\u201d.<\/p>\n
According to the analysts, a mass mobilisation of the youth vote, particularly the born-frees who do not have liberation loyalty, might be a deciding factor.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhat remains to be seen and which might have a significant impact on the elections is whether the young people will come out of social media, and vent their frustrations at the ballot box. Young people, especially those who are critical of the current governing party, might be a deciding factor,\u201d lawyer-cum-pundit Natjirikasorua Tjirera said.<\/p>\n
Agreeing with him was political scientist Rui Tyitende, who said a clear message of real hope needs to be articulated to the most vulnerable in society.<\/p>\n
\u201cFor example, what is the plan to address the army of unemployed youth? How will the agriculture sector be modernised to ensure value-addition and create jobs for unemployed graduates?\u201d he wanted to know.<\/p>\n
Scholar and commentator Ndumba Kamwanya could not agree more with his peers.<\/p>\n
\u201cYoung people [will decide the vote]; that\u2019s if they register and turn out on polling day. Economically and socially, they are most affected, and are increasingly becoming vocal against old politics of liberation struggle credentials. The Affirmative Repositioning (AR) movement stands a big chance to benefit from this block; not that AR is a better alternative, but just that the young people of this nation are ready to replace the Swapo party with anything necessary,\u201d he stated.<\/p>\n
Contenders<\/p>\n
From three analytical vantage points, there appears to be one clear favourite in the run-up to the polls, with two betting on Nandi-Ndaitwah.<\/p>\n
The status quo, albeit a significant dent in the might of the ruling party, is expected to remain intact.<\/p>\n
\u201cI see Swapo winning, and it is not because they are doing anything good, but simply because the opposition has not provided any serious alternative policies. To be honest, they do not provide clear solutions to the ills the nation is facing,\u201d asserted Tjirera.<\/p>\n
Like him, Kamwanya also expects Nandi-Ndaitwah to dominate the race to State House.<\/p>\n
\u201cNNN will most probably win because of the brand Swapo Party and the northern voting block. [But] apart from being corruption-free, she does not have the gravitas to solve this country\u2019s challenges. In fact, we will have a mirror image of tatekulu [Hifikepunye] Pohamba\u2019s presidency \u2013 more on good conduct and relational politics, but not sound public policy,\u201d Kamwanya advanced.<\/p>\n
In contrast, Independent Patriots for Change leader Itula is the frontrunner, if the 2019 elections are anything to go by, Tyitende said.<\/p>\n
\u201cItula\u2019s elevation and prominence in our political landscape has all to do with Swapo\u2019s incompetence generally, and systemic corruption specifically. Add to that the ethnic dimension, as the Namibian electorate is to a large extent ethnic-conscious when it comes to the parties and leaders they tend to support,\u201d he continued.<\/p>\n
It is, however, his fervent view that Nandi-Ndaitwah faces an uphill battle to resuscitate the party from what he termed a \u201cpolitical intensive care unit\u201d.<\/p>\n
\u201cOf late, the party has become synonymous with corruption, greed and poor service delivery. The Fishrot saga has not receded in the public\u2019s imagination, and statements by the various accused persons and witnesses may influence the way people will vote.<\/p>\n
The imminent court proceedings will unravel the depth and scope of the scandal, and the devastating impact it had on the fishing industry and communities,\u201d Tyitende stated.<\/p>\n
Nandi-Ndaitwah has internal battles of her own, with party stalwart Jerry Ekandjo attempting to throw spanners in the works.<\/p>\n
The backbencher wants Swapo to hold an extraordinary congress to elect a Swapo presidential candidate. This is despite them having already endorsed Nandi-Ndaitwah as the sole and authentic flag-bearer at the 2024 poll.<\/p>\n
PDM, IPC, LPM<\/p>\n
Breathing down Swapo and Nandi-Ndaitwah\u2019s necks will be Venaani [Popular Democratic Movement] and Swartbooi from the orange army of the Landless People\u2019s Movement.<\/p>\n
\u201cHis [Venaani] party has been quite active and visible on the campaign trail by conducting rallies and engaging in community activities. However, they face fierce competition from the IPC. They will definitely lose the official opposition status in 2024 if the 2019 national elections are anything to go by.<\/p>\n
\u201cHad the IPC been registered as a political party by then, the same pattern of votes would have followed, and the IPC would have been the official opposition and not PDM,\u201d Tyitende reasoned.<\/p>\n
While Swartbooi and LPM are ideologically grounded, they lack a national appeal, he added.<\/p>\n
\u201cSwartbooi says all the right things, but who is listening? Is it a majority of people who will be casting their votes in 2024, or only their current strongholds? They will have to do a lot of work to convince Namibians of all ethnic and racial strides that they are an inclusive party. Politics is unfortunately a game of numbers, and if they do not proliferate, you either stagnate or perish,\u201d the political scientist added.<\/p>\n
AR-factor<\/p>\n
The announcement of Amupanda\u2019s presidential ambitions and their formalisation of AR as a political party will likewise impact the outcome of the next general election.<\/p>\n
While Kamwanya argued that the movement could garner seats in Parliament, he doubts Amupanda\u2019s presidential credentials.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe good Dr needs to work on his leadership style, which is cult-like and populism-driven; an intellectual of note, but he does not like to be criticised. He becomes very personal when questioned,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
On AR and Amupanda, Tyitende had this to say: \u201cHaving made his presidential ambitions known and being the youngest amongst the current potential contenders, the AR leader faces a disillusioned youth, and the challenge of an organisation that witnessed an exodus of its key leaders. The question is, will they be able to attract the young people who are frustrated with the status quo?\u201d<\/p>\n
On the same issue, Tjirera stated: \u201cAmupanda\u2019s AR has failed dismally with their coalition partners to provide land in Windhoek. It seems they have moved away from talking about the land issue, and correctly so because they will be asked about their failure to provide land to the youth in Windhoek. I expect the AR to have a parliamentary presence, but I don\u2019t think their presence will be significant.\u201d<\/p>\n
Fading<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, the analysts also observed that the next vote will see several political formations dwindle further into obscurity, some never to be seen again.<\/p>\n
They include RDP, APP, Nudo, Swanu and NEFF.<\/p>\n
\u201cNudo is knocking on death\u2019s door, as their president made a strategic mistake of accepting the position of deputy minister in a government that her constituents vehemently oppose, more so when it comes to the contentious issues of ancestral land and the genocide. Should she run as a presidential candidate, it will be to participate and not compete. The same applies to the leadership of the UDF, NEFF, RDP and Swanu,\u201d Tyitende said.<\/p>\n
Tjirera expects the APP to maintain its parliamentary presence, despite the death of its founding president and the failure of its current MPs to make any significant impact. \u201cThey might survive because of their tribal base,\u201d he noted.<\/p>\n
From Kamwanya\u2019s lens, the RDP\u2019s future is bleak: \u201cMike Kavekotora made a big mistake to exit parliamentary politics. The person who replaced him is not politically known and savvy, but also has a chequered past, which is very well-known in the two Kavango regions\u201d.<\/p>\n
He had this to say about NEFF: \u201cThis party has no identity here in Namibia. It\u2019s a sort of an EFF (South Africa) clone, but has been struggling to articulate what South Africa\u2019s EFF stands for, and how it translates here at home. And there is the Michael Amushelelo-issue. The party has abandoned him in anguish, but he is still hanging on the party\u2019s shoulder. It seems the party does not know how to deal with this issue\u201d.<\/p>\n
For More News And Analysis About Namibia<\/a> Follow Africa-Press<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Edward Mumbuu Africa-Press – Namibia. Next year\u2019s Presidential and National Assembly elections will be a tight contest, separating pretenders from contenders. It is an election political analysts have billed as prospectively one of the most competitive in Namibia\u2019s history. The contest is set to pit deputy Prime Minister Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah (NNN) against opposition leader McHenry […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":84,"featured_media":51153,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,12],"tags":[234,236,233],"class_list":["post-51154","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-all-news","category-policy","tag-africa-press","tag-africa-press-namibia","tag-namibia"],"yoast_head":"\n
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