Africa-Press – Nigeria. <\/strong><\/span>Nigeria is the largest oil producer in Africa as it produces 1.347 million barrels per day which is more than Libya and Angola. But with the recent development that Angola has decided to exit the Organisation of Oil Producing Countries, the Nigerian fate of leaving or staying with the group is now a subject of discussion as the cause for Angola’s exit also affects Nigeria.<\/p>\nIt could be recalled that during OPEC’s last meeting in November this year 2023 it announced the cut of oil production quota among its members to push the oil price in the global market<\/p>\n
But this decision is in contradiction with Nigeria’s hope of producing more oil in the coming year 2024 to finance the first budget of the present administration under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.<\/p>\n
Angola withdraws its membership of OPEC<\/b><\/p>\n
On Thursday 20th of December 2023 Angola announced its decision of quitting OPEC ,this decision is seen by many as a protest against the oil producer group that has sought in recent months to rally support for further oil production cuts to prop up oil prices.<\/p>\n
While announcing Angola’s decision of leaving the Organisation ,its Minister of Oil Diamantino Azevedo said the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries no longer serves the country’s interests.It joins other mid-sized producers Ecuador and Qatar that have left OPEC in the last decade.<\/p>\n
“We feel that Angola currently gains nothing by remaining in the Organisation and in defense of its interests ,decided to leave Azevedo was quoted in a Presidency statement as reported by Reuters OPEC decision to cut Angola’s quota in 2024 is seen as the major factor for the second oil largest producer in Africa leaving the Group.This dispute contributed to the delay in holding the last OPEC meeting in November and it’s agreement on new output Some Analysts said that this shows that there is no consensus within the Organisation it self as they said there will be consequences.<\/p>\n
Nigeria and its effort to boost daily Oil Production<\/b><\/p>\n
As an OPEC member Nigeria has been trying to increase its output and has been struggling to meet its quota .At OPEC meeting, it received a higher OPEC target for 2024 ,although lower than it had sought ,restricting its ability to increase production.<\/p>\n
Nigeria’s target is to be producing two million barrels per day as against the 1.7 million barrels per day quota provided by OPEC in 2024 which will enable the Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration to finance its budget estimate of 27. 5 trillion Naira -about $34 billion dollars at the price of $73.96 per barrel.<\/p>\n
So, for Nigeria to meet its yearning it need extra production even though recent development indicated that Nigeria’s domestic demand of Crude oil has increased as Dangote refinery begins operation .This facility received its first one Million and another one million barrel of crude oil within this Month December 2023 as it expect another two million barrel soon. The facility also has the capacity of refining 360,000 barrels of crude daily.<\/p>\n
The impact of Angola’s exit<\/b><\/p>\n
Three OPEC delegates were reported saying on the condition of anonymity that Angola’s decision to leave came as a surprise ,as they had expected the dispute over Angola’s quota to blow over.<\/p>\n
Angola ,which joined OPEC in 2007 produces about 1.1 million barrels of oil per day as part of the 28 million barrels per day for the whole OPEC members.<\/p>\n
Africa’s second oil producer departure from OPEC will leave the group with 12 members and crude production of about 27 million barrels per day which stands at 27 percent of the 102 million barrels per day world oil market .<\/p>\n
Kelvin Emmanuel is an economist and market professional.He said the decision of Angola is not shocking considering that it is currently producing 1.1 million barrels of oil per day as it joined OPEC in 2007 but Nigeria joined the Group in 1971 as OPEC was founded in 1960 the same year that Nigeria got Independence from Britain.<\/p>\n
When you look at the countries like Indonesia and Qatar that left OPEC and consider that ,the group members are now producing 30.1 per day out if the totally oil produce globally ,I really don’t see that today’s OPEC is not the hunter eagle of the Saudi-Arabia, if you look at the fact that within the same period when they have their June meeting when the quota of Nigeria and Angola were reviewed down ,Nigerian and Angolan representative to OPEC complained but the quota of the United Arab Emirates were reviewed up in the same meeting this makes Angola to walks away from the meeting,the same issue happened to Qatar 2019 that prompted it to leave OPEC and today it earn about 72 billion dollars from oil and gas revenue ,especially gas LNG as it stand as the third largest producer globally after Australia and United States of America.<\/p>\n
He stated this in an interview with Arise news recently while commenting on the Angola’s decision to quit the OPEC The economist added that it doesn’t come as a surprise Angola deed the right thing as he encourage Nigerian government to critically assess its role in OPEC ,may it has sentimental value considering Nigeria’s being in the Group since 1971 ,may be that is the reason why it find it difficult to leave OPEC but to be honest OPEC today has no relevance considering that non OPEC members currently produce about 63.3 million barrels of crude oil daily in cooperation with likes of USA which is currently the largest producer ahead of Saudi-Arabia.<\/p>\n
“I think we have like Brazil and other countries in like that cooperation ,Russia is the main producer also but because of the sanctions on Russia and the financial system alot of Russian crude goes in trans shipment in the Indian Ocean and that is the main reason why the crude oil shipment from Nigeria to India has reduced at the instance of that volume as diverted to European countries like Netherlands ,so it doesn’t come to me as shock ,I think is the right thing Angola deed” Emmanuel state<\/p>\n
What will happen if Nigeria decides to join Angola?<\/b><\/p>\n
Speaking on this the economic analyst says that he don’t know if the Nigerian President Bola Tinubu is reading the room considering that he is the Minister of Petroleum ,but if he is reading the room and realized that Nigerian oil and gas strategy as Port Harcourt trans pipe just come alive Port Harcourt and Dangote refineries are testing, are going to start delivery next month (January 2024) if the President is reading room the Nigerian oil and gas strategy is shifting from the era when you shift your crude in that joint venture production sharing contracts out for revenue ,you first of all have an obligation base on PIA 2021 to supply Modular and commercial refineries in Nigeria before supplying outside of Nigeria .<\/p>\n
The Dangote refinery just received the second one million barrels of crude ,it is supposed to be four million as in January is expected to get another two million barrels so if the contract partners are struggling to supply Dangote with four million barrels which will not be enough for eleven days production base on the fact that the facility is going to be using about 350 ,000 barrels per day<\/p>\n
“If they are struggling to provide the up takers in Nigeria what International Market are we talking about ,look Nigeria need to understand the future of its oil Industry is dependent on you been able to secure your market in Nigeria and I told you why ,your energy basket takes about 2.4 billion dollars per month.Nigeria’s total import per year is about 65 billion dollars your energy basket takes about 43 percent of your total import on the yearly basis ,if you are planning to do backward integration through substitution and ensure that you don’t import this product any more ,then the obligation is for the Nigerian government to ensure that it provide all the crude oil stuff that the refiners in Nigeria need since they are buying the product in dollars any away to be able to produce and secure the energy basket which takes 43 percent of the total import on yearly basis ,so I don’t see the reason why OPEC is much of a priority considering that even the excess net production we have on daily basis can actually be sold in daily market of declaration of cooperation window -the DLC.” He stated<\/p>\n
Speaking on Nigeria’s target to achieve two million barrels per day in 2024, the analyst describes it as a lefty target, it is going to be exhilarating and relieving in the apex market if they can achieve that considering that the NNPC has a crude forward obligation to deliver to International trading partners and apex revenue to FAAC through CBN sells at the primary auctions and secondary market intervention scheme.<\/p>\n
“But in in2024 I expect that with full backward integration of your energy import which takes 43 of your total import every year, I expect that things are going to be reviewed up,” The economist said<\/p>\n
However, from the reality on the ground as Nigeria wants to achieve its 2024 budget target by producing two million barrels of crude oil per day, its membership of OPEC is at Steck as the group’s decision to cut its production will not help matters<\/p>\n
Emulating Angola at this level will be a good option for Nigeria as OPEC can no longer provide Nigeria with a platform to achieve its potential in the oil and Gas business.<\/p>\n
Angola as the second largest oil exporter in Africa has set the ball rolling for not only Nigeria but for other African oil producers and exporters from the Saudi-Arabian-dominated OPEC.<\/p>\n
At this point also Nigeria should consider its internal need for crude oil as it has one of the largest private refineries in the world which requires 360,000 barrels to process per day coupled with modular ones and government-owned refineries that are under rehabilitation with the expectation to start operation in 2024.<\/p>\n
So it’s important for the Nigerian government to weigh the merits and the demerits of staying in the OPEC immediately so that the right decision can be taken to safeguard the ailing Nigerian economy that suffered years of depression.<\/p>\n
For More News And Analysis About Nigeria<\/a> Follow Africa-Press<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"By Abba Hamisu Sani Africa-Press – Nigeria. Nigeria is the largest oil producer in Africa as it produces 1.347 million barrels per day which is more than Libya and Angola. But with the recent development that Angola has decided to exit the Organisation of Oil Producing Countries, the Nigerian fate of leaving or staying with […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":84,"featured_media":105242,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[24,1437,29,28,2660],"tags":[1570,2140,254],"class_list":["post-105244","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-all-news","category-files","category-head-lines","category-homepage-english","category-to-homepage","tag-africa-press","tag-africa-press-nigeria-2","tag-nigeria"],"yoast_head":"\n
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