{"id":10849,"date":"2023-12-24T19:33:37","date_gmt":"2023-12-24T19:33:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/sao-tome-e-principe\/politique\/chronique-en-2023-le-seuil-de-15-c-sera-t-il-depasse"},"modified":"2023-12-24T21:14:30","modified_gmt":"2023-12-24T21:14:30","slug":"chronique-en-2023-le-seuil-de-15-c-sera-t-il-depasse","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/sao-tome-e-principe\/toutes-les-actualites\/chronique-en-2023-le-seuil-de-15-c-sera-t-il-depasse","title":{"rendered":"CHRONIQUE. En 2023, le seuil de 1,5 \u00b0C sera-t-il d\u00e9pass\u00e9 ?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – S\u00e3o Tom\u00e9 e Pr\u00edncipe. <\/strong><\/span>Le re\u0301chauffement plane\u0301taire franchira probablement 1,5 \u00b0C en 2023 ou en sera tre\u0300s proche. L\u2019envole\u0301e du thermome\u0300tre s\u2019explique par plusieurs facteurs.<\/p>\n

Trois acteurs majeurs de variabilite\u0301 interne<\/b><\/p>\n

L\u2019activite\u0301 du Soleil est un peu plus intense, son cycle d\u2019environ onze ans e\u0301tant en phase croissante. L\u2019e\u0301ruption volcanique du Hunga Tonga booste un peu l\u2019effet de serre naturel. Trois acteurs majeurs de variabilite\u0301 interne \u2013 terme qui englobe l\u2019ensemble des fluctuations spontane\u0301es du climat \u2013 jouent cette anne\u0301e.<\/p>\n

Un e\u0301ve\u0301nement El Nin\u0303o s\u2019est de\u0301veloppe\u0301 dans le Pacifique, conduisant a\u0300 un de\u0301gagement de chaleur vers l\u2019atmosphe\u0300re. Dans l\u2019Atlantique, des vents plus faibles diminuant l\u2019e\u0301vaporation en surface et une ne\u0301bulosite\u0301 re\u0301duite accentuant l\u2019ensoleillement, en lien avec l\u2019oscillation nord-atlantique qui pilote une grande part des fluctuations de l\u2019anticyclone des Ac\u0327ores, ont induit une hausse nette de la tempe\u0301rature de surface. Et dans l\u2019oce\u0301an Austral, l\u2019e\u0301tendue tre\u0300s faible de la banquise hivernale amplifie les chaleurs locales.<\/p>\n

Des coups toujours plus rudes aux e\u0301cosyste\u0300mes<\/b><\/p>\n

Mais sans le re\u0301chauffement anthropique, ces facteurs e\u0301pisodiques ne peuvent expliquer a\u0300 eux seuls ce record plane\u0301taire. Me\u0302me s\u2019il ne faut pas mettre en regard le chiffre de 1,5 \u00b0C sur une anne\u0301e donne\u0301e avec les niveaux de re\u0301chauffement de\u0301finis dans l\u2019accord de Paris comme des moyennes sur plusieurs de\u0301cennies, ce de\u0301passement ponctuel donne des coups toujours plus rudes aux e\u0301cosyste\u0300mes et signe de\u0301ja\u0300, pour certains, des pertes irre\u0301versibles. Ne serions-nous pas dans un de\u0301ni de vulne\u0301rabilite\u0301 a\u0300 ce climat qui change vite, tre\u0300s vite ?<\/p>\n

Par Ce\u0301line Guivarch, directrice de recherche a\u0300 l\u2019E\u0301cole des ponts, auteure principale du 6e rapport du Giec, groupe 3. Et Christophe Cassou, directeur de recherche au CNRS, auteur principal du 6e rapport du Giec (Groupe d\u2019experts intergouvernemental sur l\u2019e\u0301volution du climat), groupe 1.<\/p>\n

Pour plus d’informations et d’analyses sur la S\u00e3o Tom\u00e9 e Pr\u00edncipe<\/a>, suivez Africa-Press<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Africa-Press – S\u00e3o Tom\u00e9 e Pr\u00edncipe. Le re\u0301chauffement plane\u0301taire franchira probablement 1,5 \u00b0C en 2023 ou en sera tre\u0300s proche. L\u2019envole\u0301e du thermome\u0300tre s\u2019explique par plusieurs facteurs. Trois acteurs majeurs de variabilite\u0301 interne L\u2019activite\u0301 du Soleil est un peu plus intense, son cycle d\u2019environ onze ans e\u0301tant en phase croissante. L\u2019e\u0301ruption volcanique du Hunga Tonga […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":82,"featured_media":10848,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[22,10],"tags":[36,55,56],"class_list":["post-10849","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-divers","category-toutes-les-actualites","tag-africa-press","tag-africa-press-sao-tome-e-principe","tag-sao-tome-e-principe"],"yoast_head":"\nCHRONIQUE. 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