Africa-Press – Senegal. <\/strong><\/span>Le Se\u0301ne\u0301gal traverse une crise de la dette. Le pays est contraint de s\u2019endetter presque chaque mois pour faire face a\u0300 ses remboursements, financer ses de\u0301penses courantes et maintenir le fonctionnement normal de l\u2019E\u0301tat. Cette situation, combine\u0301e a\u0300 plusieurs de\u0301gradations de la note souveraine, a entrai\u0302ne\u0301 une hausse spectaculaire du cou\u0302t de l\u2019endettement sur les marche\u0301s internationaux.<\/p>\n\u00ab Sur les eurobonds se\u0301ne\u0301galais, les taux sont passe\u0301s d\u2019environ 4 % a\u0300 plus de 12 % en l\u2019espace de quelques anne\u0301es. Une e\u0301volution qui refle\u0300te la perte de confiance des investisseurs et qui place le pays dans ce que la finance internationale qualifie de dette en de\u0301tresse \u00bb, selon le professeur Abdoulaye Ndiaye, e\u0301conomiste a\u0300 la New York Universite\u0301 Invite\u0301 du \u00ab\u00a0Jury du dimanche\u00a0\u00bb sur iRadio.<\/p>\n
A\u0300 l\u2019en croire, \u00ab officiellement, le FMI indique ne pas avoir encore finalise\u0301 son analyse de soutenabilite\u0301 de la dette du Se\u0301ne\u0301gal. Une formule diplomatique qui, dans le langage des institutions financie\u0300res internationales, signifie qu\u2019il n\u2019est pas en mesure de confirmer que la dette est soutenable a\u0300 ce stade \u00bb.<\/p>\n
Cette prudence, dit-il, contraste avec la position des autorite\u0301s se\u0301ne\u0301galaises, qui continuent d\u2019affirmer que la trajectoire de la dette reste mai\u0302trise\u0301e. Mais sur les marche\u0301s financiers, le verdict semble de\u0301ja\u0300 rendu. Les prix actuels des eurobonds se\u0301ne\u0301galais, particulie\u0300rement faibles sur les maturite\u0301s de court terme, traduisent une anticipation claire: les investisseurs inte\u0300grent l\u2019hypothe\u0300se d\u2019une restructuration de la dette, impliquant des pertes pour les cre\u0301anciers \u00bb.<\/p>\n
\u00ab Quand les eurobonds a\u0300 court terme se ne\u0301gocient a\u0300 des prix anormalement bas, cela signifie que le marche\u0301 s\u2019attend a\u0300 un e\u0301change de titres ou a\u0300 un de\u0301faut partiel \u00bb, explique l\u2019e\u0301conomiste.<\/p>\n
Deux options, deux cou\u0302ts<\/b><\/p>\n
Face a\u0300 cette situation, deux chemins s\u2019offrent au Se\u0301ne\u0301gal selon le spe\u0301cialiste. Le premier, de\u0301ja\u0300 emprunte\u0301 depuis plus d\u2019un an, consiste a\u0300 continuer a\u0300 faire rouler la dette, principalement sur le marche\u0301 re\u0301gional de l\u2019UEMOA. Cette strate\u0301gie permet de franchir les e\u0301che\u0301ances imme\u0301diates, mais a\u0300 un prix e\u0301leve\u0301: des taux d\u2019inte\u0301re\u0302t supe\u0301rieurs aux financements concessionnels et une exposition croissante des banques re\u0301gionales a\u0300 la dette souveraine se\u0301ne\u0301galaise. Cette option pre\u0301sente des limites e\u0301videntes.<\/p>\n
A\u0300 long terme, elle accroi\u0302t les charges d\u2019inte\u0301re\u0302ts, de\u0301ja\u0300 proches de 5 % en moyenne et appele\u0301es a\u0300 augmenter et fait peser un risque sur la stabilite\u0301 financie\u0300re re\u0301gionale. La seconde option est plus sensible politiquement: engager une restructuration ordonne\u0301e de la dette, dans le cadre du me\u0301canisme commun du G20. Cette voie implique des ne\u0301gociations complexes avec l\u2019ensemble des cre\u0301anciers multilate\u0301raux, bilate\u0301raux (notamment la Chine et la France) et de\u0301tenteurs d\u2019eurobonds.<\/p>\n
\u00ab Si le cou\u0302t est e\u0301leve\u0301 a\u0300 court terme, notamment en termes d\u2019acce\u0300s aux marche\u0301s financiers, les expe\u0301riences internationales montrent qu\u2019une restructuration bien conduite peut permettre un rede\u0301marrage e\u0301conomique plus sain \u00bb, explique le professeur Ndiaye.<\/p>\n
Soutenabilite\u0301 et viabilite\u0301: un de\u0301bat cle\u0301<\/b><\/p>\n
Au c\u0153ur des e\u0301changes avec le FMI se trouvent deux notions souvent confondues: \u00ab La soutenabilite\u0301 et la viabilite\u0301 de la dette. \u00bb<\/p>\n
\u00ab La soutenabilite\u0301 renvoie a\u0300 la capacite\u0301 d\u2019un E\u0301tat a\u0300 honorer ses obligations sans de\u0301se\u0301quilibrer durablement son budget. La viabilite\u0301, elle, s\u2019inscrit dans le temps long: la trajectoire actuelle permet-elle de stabiliser, voire de re\u0301duire, le poids de la dette dans l\u2019e\u0301conomie \u00bb?<\/p>\n
Dans le cas du Se\u0301ne\u0301gal, plusieurs fragilite\u0301s apparaissent. Les exportations restent limite\u0301es, re\u0301duisant les marges de man\u0153uvre exte\u0301rieures. La consolidation budge\u0301taire pre\u0301vue dans la loi de finances repose largement sur des pre\u0301visions de recettes juge\u0301es tre\u0300s ambitieuses, sans re\u0301duction significative des de\u0301penses.<\/p>\n
Pour le FMI, ces e\u0301le\u0301ments rendent la trajectoire incertaine. Pour les autorite\u0301s, ils restent compatibles avec un ajustement progressif. Entre les deux, les marche\u0301s ont choisi leur camp.<\/p>\n
Une crise qui de\u0301passe le Se\u0301ne\u0301gal<\/b><\/p>\n
La situation se\u0301ne\u0301galaise soule\u0300ve aussi une question re\u0301gionale. En tant que membre de l\u2019UEMOA, le Se\u0301ne\u0301gal be\u0301ne\u0301ficie d\u2019un cadre mone\u0301taire partage\u0301, qui a jusqu\u2019ici permis d\u2019e\u0301viter une crise inflationniste ou bancaire imme\u0301diate. Mais cette solidarite\u0301 a ses limites. Une restructuration mal calibre\u0301e de la dette re\u0301gionale pourrait fragiliser les banques et rappeler le pre\u0301ce\u0301dent grec au sein de la zone euro.<\/p>\n
D\u2019ou\u0300 l\u2019appel de plusieurs e\u0301conomistes a\u0300 renforcer les me\u0301canismes de discipline et de solidarite\u0301 financie\u0300re au niveau re\u0301gional. \u00ab Longtemps perc\u0327ue comme un aveu d\u2019e\u0301chec, la restructuration de la dette n\u2019est plus une honte, rappellent les auteurs du rapport Ndiaye-Kessler. Dans un contexte mondial marque\u0301 par la multiplication des crises de dette souveraine, elle est devenue un outil parmi d\u2019autres de gestion des chocs macroe\u0301conomiques \u00bb explique le Pr. Ndiaye.<\/p>\n
Pour le Se\u0301ne\u0301gal, souligne-t-il en outre, \u00ab le ve\u0301ritable enjeu n\u2019est donc pas de savoir s\u2019il faut agir, mais quand et comment. Car repousser les de\u0301cisions pourrait transformer une crise ge\u0301rable en contrainte durable, pesant sur l\u2019e\u0301conomie et les ge\u0301ne\u0301rations futures \u00bb.<\/p>\n
Source: seneweb<\/b><\/p>\n
Pour plus d’informations et d’analyses sur la Senegal<\/span>, suivez Africa-Press<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Yand\u00e9 Diop Africa-Press – Senegal. Le Se\u0301ne\u0301gal traverse une crise de la dette. Le pays est contraint de s\u2019endetter presque chaque mois pour faire face a\u0300 ses remboursements, financer ses de\u0301penses courantes et maintenir le fonctionnement normal de l\u2019E\u0301tat. Cette situation, combine\u0301e a\u0300 plusieurs de\u0301gradations de la note souveraine, a entrai\u0302ne\u0301 une hausse spectaculaire du […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":82,"featured_media":74741,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7,3,10],"tags":[44],"class_list":["post-74742","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-dossiers","category-economie","category-toutes-les-actualites","tag-senegal-2"],"yoast_head":"\n
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