Africa-Press – Senegal. <\/strong><\/span>Dans de nombreux pays africains, les subventions aux carburants, a\u0300 l\u2019e\u0301lectricite\u0301 ou aux denre\u0301es alimentaires sont pre\u0301sente\u0301es comme un rempart contre l\u2019e\u0301rosion du pouvoir d\u2019achat. Elles visent a\u0300 amortir l\u2019effet des hausses de prix mondiaux sur les me\u0301nages et a\u0300 pre\u0301server une forme de stabilite\u0301 sociale. Pourtant, derrie\u0300re cette fonction protectrice, se dessine un me\u0301canisme budge\u0301taire aux implications profondes, souvent sous estime\u0301es.<\/p>\nLes chiffres publie\u0301s par le Fonds mone\u0301taire international (FMI) montrent qu\u2019en Afrique subsaharienne, les subventions e\u0301nerge\u0301tiques explicites ont repre\u0301sente\u0301 en moyenne entre 1,5 % et 3 % du produit inte\u0301rieur brut ces dernie\u0300res anne\u0301es, avec des pics bien plus e\u0301leve\u0301s dans certains pays importateurs de pe\u0301trole lors des flambe\u0301es des cours en 2022 et 2023. Dans des e\u0301conomies ou\u0300 les recettes fiscales de\u0301passent rarement 15 % a\u0300 20 % du PIB, consacrer plusieurs points de richesse nationale a\u0300 des transferts ge\u0301ne\u0301ralise\u0301s re\u0301duit d\u2019autant les marges pour financer la sante\u0301, l\u2019e\u0301ducation ou les infrastructures.<\/p>\n
L\u2019argument social est toutefois re\u0301el. Lorsque les prix internationaux de l\u2019e\u0301nergie ou des ce\u0301re\u0301ales augmentent brusquement, comme lors de la guerre en Ukraine, les me\u0301nages les plus modestes sont les premiers affecte\u0301s. La Banque mondiale a estime\u0301 en 2022 que la hausse des prix alimentaires avait fait basculer des millions de personnes supple\u0301mentaires dans l\u2019inse\u0301curite\u0301 alimentaire en Afrique. Dans ce contexte, supprimer brutalement les subventions peut provoquer des re\u0301actions sociales intenses et fragiliser la cohe\u0301sion nationale.<\/p>\n
La difficulte\u0301 re\u0301side dans le ciblage. Les e\u0301tudes du FMI et de la Banque mondiale convergent sur un point. Les subventions universelles aux carburants be\u0301ne\u0301ficient proportionnellement davantage aux me\u0301nages les plus aise\u0301s, qui consomment plus d\u2019e\u0301nergie et posse\u0300dent davantage de ve\u0301hicules. Dans plusieurs pays d\u2019Afrique de l\u2019Ouest, les 20 % les plus riches captent une part largement supe\u0301rieure a\u0300 celle des 20 % les plus pauvres. Autrement dit, une mesure conc\u0327ue pour prote\u0301ger les plus vulne\u0301rables finit par soutenir aussi, voire surtout, les cate\u0301gories de\u0301ja\u0300 favorise\u0301es.<\/p>\n
L\u2019impact macroe\u0301conomique ne se limite pas au de\u0301ficit budge\u0301taire. Lorsque les subventions sont finance\u0301es par l\u2019endettement, elles alimentent une dynamique de dette publique plus difficile a\u0300 stabiliser. Dans des contextes ou\u0300 le ratio dette sur PIB de\u0301passe parfois 70 % ou 80 %, chaque point de de\u0301pense supple\u0301mentaire non finance\u0301 par des recettes durables accroi\u0302t la fragilite\u0301 financie\u0300re. Les agences de notation et les investisseurs surveillent attentivement ces trajectoires, ce qui peut renche\u0301rir le cou\u0302t du financement souverain.<\/p>\n
Pour autant, pre\u0301senter les subventions comme une simple bombe budge\u0301taire occulte leur fonction de stabilisateur social. La question n\u2019est pas tant leur existence que leur architecture. Plusieurs pays ont engage\u0301 des re\u0301formes graduelles en remplac\u0327ant les subventions ge\u0301ne\u0301ralise\u0301es par des transferts mone\u0301taires cible\u0301s ou par des me\u0301canismes d\u2019indexation partielle des prix. L\u2019objectif est de pre\u0301server l\u2019accompagnement des me\u0301nages vulne\u0301rables tout en re\u0301duisant le cou\u0302t global pour les finances publiques.<\/p>\n
Le de\u0301bat de\u0301passe donc l\u2019opposition entre protection sociale et rigueur budge\u0301taire. Il renvoie a\u0300 la capacite\u0301 des E\u0301tats a\u0300 identifier pre\u0301cise\u0301ment les be\u0301ne\u0301ficiaires, a\u0300 disposer de registres sociaux fiables et a\u0300 communiquer clairement sur les arbitrages. Sans outils statistiques solides et sans confiance institutionnelle, toute re\u0301forme devient politiquement de\u0301licate.<\/p>\n
Les subventions peuvent constituer un amortisseur utile en pe\u0301riode de choc. Elles peuvent aussi devenir un poids durable si elles ne sont ni temporaires ni cible\u0301es. L\u2019enjeu pour les e\u0301conomies africaines consiste a\u0300 transformer ces me\u0301canismes en instruments de politique sociale efficaces, compatibles avec la soutenabilite\u0301 des finances publiques et avec une strate\u0301gie de de\u0301veloppement de long terme.<\/p>\n
Source: seneweb<\/b><\/p>\n
Pour plus d’informations et d’analyses sur la Senegal<\/span>, suivez Africa-Press<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"A\u00cfcha Fall Africa-Press – Senegal. Dans de nombreux pays africains, les subventions aux carburants, a\u0300 l\u2019e\u0301lectricite\u0301 ou aux denre\u0301es alimentaires sont pre\u0301sente\u0301es comme un rempart contre l\u2019e\u0301rosion du pouvoir d\u2019achat. Elles visent a\u0300 amortir l\u2019effet des hausses de prix mondiaux sur les me\u0301nages et a\u0300 pre\u0301server une forme de stabilite\u0301 sociale. Pourtant, derrie\u0300re cette fonction […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":82,"featured_media":75016,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7,10],"tags":[44],"class_list":["post-75017","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-dossiers","category-toutes-les-actualites","tag-senegal-2"],"yoast_head":"\n
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