Africa-Press – Seychelles. The price of rice, which soared to its highest level in 15 years, after restrictions imposed by India on exports of this cereal, foreshadows how climate change will disrupt food supplies worldwide, according to experts.
Rice prices jumped 9.8% in August, offsetting declines in other commodities, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) said last week.
It was the announcement in July by India, which represents 40% of world rice exports, of a ban on sales of non-basmati rice abroad, which ignited the powder.
New Delhi justified this measure by a surge in rice prices on its domestic market caused by geopolitics, the El Nino weather phenomenon and “extreme weather conditions”.
This year is expected to be the hottest ever experienced by humanity and the impact of the seasonal El Nino phenomenon could make the situation even worse.
Despite severe flooding in parts of northern India, this August was the hottest and driest on record in the country. The monsoon, which brings up to 80% of the country’s annual rainfall, was well below normal.
The restrictions imposed by India in July follow an embargo last September on exports of another variety of rice, an essential food in parts of Africa.
Jusqu’à 8% des exportations mondiales de riz pour 2023/24 pourraient désormais être retirées du marché, selon une analyse de BMI, qui fait partie de l’agence de notation Fitch.
– Craintes de sécheresse –
Pour l’instant, la crise a offert une opportunité à la Thaïlande et au Vietnam, les deuxième et troisième exportateurs mondiaux, d’augmenter leurs exportations.
Nguyen Nhu Cuong, un responsable du ministère vietnamien de l’Agriculture et du Développement rural, se félicite d’une “récolte exceptionnelle” et envisage d’augmenter les semis.
Mais la sécheresse qui accompagne El Nino pourrait menacer les récoltes, s’inquiète Elyssa Kaur Ludher, du programme sur le changement climatique en Asie du Sud-Est de l’Institut ISEAS-Yusof Ishak.
“Je pense que la fin de cette année et surtout le début de l’année prochaine seront très, très difficiles”, prévient-elle.
El Nino, un phénomène météorologique naturel, dure généralement de neuf à douze mois et devrait se renforcer à la fin de cette année.
Avant même les restrictions imposées par l’Inde, son effet faisait grimper les prix à l’exportation du riz, selon BMI.
En Thaïlande, les précipitations sont actuellement 18% inférieures aux prévisions pour la période, a indiqué en septembre l’Office des ressources nationales en eau. Des pluies tardives pourraient encore compenser le déficit, mais l’agence se dit “préoccupée” par une sécheresse provoquée par El Nino.
– “Nouvelle norme” –
L’impact porte plutôt sur les prix que sur l’offre, relève Charles Hart, analyste des matières premières agricoles chez Fitch Solutions. “On n’assiste pas à une période de pénurie de riz”.
Cette situation est susceptible de ponctionner les stocks reconstitués après la pandémie de Covid et d’inciter les importateurs à obtenir de nouveaux accords et à imposer des limites localement.
Les Philippines, important importateur, viennent de signer un accord avec le Vietnam pour stabiliser l’offre, quelques jours après avoir annoncé un plafonnement des prix.
Mais pour les plus pauvres, des prix élevés signifient moins de nourriture. “C’est aussi une question de stabilité sociale, c’est une question politique” à laquelle les dirigeants doivent être attentifs, note Elyssa Kaur Ludher.
Le changement climatique peut faire baisser la productivité, avec une baisse des rendements agricoles à mesure que les températures augmentent, mais il augmente également la probabilité d’événements extrêmes comme les inondations de 2022 au Pakistan.
“Les marchés mondiaux d’exportation de céréales sont relativement concentrés, de sorte que ce type de risque climatique extrême se concentre sur quelques marchés”, ajoute Charles Hart.
En Inde, les autorités doivent développer de meilleurs systèmes d’alerte et de nouveaux modèles de semis, souligne Avantika Goswami, chercheuse sur le changement climatique au Centre pour la Science et l’Environnement.
“Les conditions météorologiques irrégulières sont la nouvelle norme”, avertit-elle.The price of rice, which soared to its highest level in 15 years, after restrictions imposed by India on exports of this cereal, foreshadows how climate change will disrupt food supplies worldwide, according to experts.
Rice prices jumped 9.8% in August, offsetting declines in other commodities, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) said last week.
It was the announcement in July by India, which represents 40% of world rice exports, of a ban on sales of non-basmati rice abroad, which ignited the powder.
New Delhi justified this measure by a surge in rice prices on its domestic market caused by geopolitics, the El Nino weather phenomenon and “extreme weather conditions”.
This year is expected to be the hottest ever experienced by humanity and the impact of the seasonal El Nino phenomenon could make the situation even worse.
Despite severe flooding in parts of northern India, this August was the hottest and driest on record in the country. The monsoon, which brings up to 80% of the country’s annual rainfall, was well below normal.
The restrictions imposed by India in July follow an embargo last September on exports of another variety of rice, an essential food in parts of Africa.
Up to 8% of global rice exports for 2023/24 could now be taken off the market, according to an analysis by BMI, part of the Fitch ratings agency.
– Fears of drought –
For now, the crisis has offered an opportunity for Thailand and Vietnam, the world’s second and third largest exporters, to increase their exports.
Nguyen Nhu Cuong, an official at Vietnam’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, welcomes a “bumper harvest” and plans to increase plantings.
But the drought that accompanies El Nino could threaten harvests, worries Elyssa Kaur Ludher of the Southeast Asia Climate Change Program at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.
“I think the end of this year and especially the beginning of next year will be very, very difficult,” she warns.
El Nino, a natural weather phenomenon, typically lasts nine to 12 months and is expected to strengthen late this year.
Even before India’s restrictions, its effect was driving up rice export prices, according to BMI.
In Thailand, rainfall is currently 18% lower than forecast for the period, the National Water Resources Authority said in September. Late rains could still offset the deficit, but the agency says it is “concerned” about an El Nino-induced drought.
– “New normal” –
The impact is more on prices than on supply, notes Charles Hart, agricultural commodities analyst at Fitch Solutions. “We are not witnessing a period of rice shortage.”
This situation is likely to drain stocks replenished after the Covid pandemic and to encourage importers to obtain new agreements and impose limits locally.
The Philippines, a major importer, has just signed an agreement with Vietnam to stabilize supply, a few days after announcing a price cap.
But for the poorest, high prices mean less food. “It is also a question of social stability, it is a political question” to which leaders must be attentive, notes Elyssa Kaur Ludher.
Climate change can lower productivity, with agricultural yields falling as temperatures rise, but it also increases the likelihood of extreme events like the 2022 floods in Pakistan.
“Global grain export markets are relatively concentrated, so this type of extreme weather risk is concentrated in a few markets,” adds Charles Hart.
In India, authorities need to develop better warning systems and new seeding models, underlines Avantika Goswami, climate change researcher at the Center for Science and Environment.
Source: nation
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