Africa-Press – South-Africa. The fact that ANC leaders who ascended from Gauteng did not come through Cyril Ramaphosa’s slate is quite telling. This gives a glimpse into the future of the ANC in the next few years, writes Ralph Mathekga.
Cyril Ramaphosa has been elected to lead the ANC for a second term. This was not a surprising victory, given he was favoured to win the conference as indicated during the nomination process and the build-up.
Events have also conspired to a point where the ANC reluctantly realised how much it needs Ramaphosa to wage a meaningful fight in the 2024 elections. It was Ramaphosa’s conference to lose as an incumbent.
The question on everyone’s mind is what this victory means in terms of consolidation of his agenda in the party and in government. Furthermore, it is important to consider whether Ramaphosa is safe in the company of his newly elected top seven national office bearers.
Too many slates
There were too many slates for any group to be confident it would attain the most optimal results in terms of individuals who would make it to the top leadership of the party.
With so many slates and provinces embarking on open lobbying to secure representation in the top leadership, the only thing that was clear was that Ramaphosa would win the presidency. This precariously left the pecking order below the top position open and that was where the fierce contests by provinces came into the picture.
Most provinces, except for KwaZulu-Natal, wanted Ramaphosa to continue, but they had conflicting ideas as to who should serve alongside him within the top leadership of the party.
As provincial power brokers approached each other with their pecking orders for the top seven, it became clear provinces were hellbent on ensuring they got representation.
This is in line with the leadership pipeline that is in place in the ANC, where provincial leaders ascend to the national leadership, reflecting the province’s power base and ability to push for its agenda and dominate the organisation.
KwaZulu-Natal placed all bets on Dr Zweli Mkhize, not willing to compromise or even consider a Plan B.
The province nearly alienated all other provinces with its noncompromising attitude. In a conference of trade-offs between provinces, KZN went it alone without a solid plan. Gauteng was willing to be in all slates and as a result, managed to get the maximum representation in the newly elected top seven leadership.
Dominance of Gauteng
If one were to ask which province prevailed it at Nasrec, it would be Gauteng. The election of Paul Mashatile as the deputy president alongside Nomvula Mokonyane as the first deputy secretary-general is a clear consolidation for Gauteng, despite troubles that the provincial chapter of the ANC is experiencing on the ground.
The ANC in Gauteng has been the most hit by the electoral loss experienced by the party countrywide, with ANC having lost key metros in the region.
Even more interesting is that the ANC in Gauteng is not the most exemplary provincial chapter when it comes to inspiring good governance in their home province.
The Gauteng government has consistently courted controversy on grand corruption in the health sector, for example. The future of the ANC, as things look, is predominantly in the hands of the Gauteng leadership. This brings me to the question of which agenda seems to have prevailed in the elective conference.
The fact that ANC leaders who ascended from Gauteng did not come through Ramaphosa’s slate is quite telling. This gives a glimpse into the future of the ANC in the next few years. What came out at the Nasrec conference is the picture of the ANC beyond Ramaphosa.
This means his agenda is not guaranteed beyond this conference, no matter how many gains the president achieves before his exit. The more he pushes for whatever remains of his agenda, the closer Ramaphosa gets to the exit door.
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