Africa-Press – South-Africa. South African Deputy President Paul Mashatile signalled to the Democratic Alliance that he wants it to remain in any future coalition government, as part of a broader effort to position himself as President Cyril Ramaphosa’s eventual successor.
The overtures are aimed at countering investor perceptions that Mashatile is aligned with the leftist Economic Freedom Fighters and the populist uMkhonto weSizwe Party, both of which back radical policy shifts, including nationalising banks and other strategic assets.
Mashatile is second in command of the African National Congress — the biggest party in the so-called government of national unity, or GNU — and is a top contender to succeed Ramaphosa as party head and, in turn, leader of the country.
The stability of South Africa’s coalition government has been a key concern for investors since it was formed 18 months ago in the wake of the ANC’s historic loss of its parliamentary majority.
Fractures in the alliance — including over a budget impasse earlier this year — have sparked selloffs of South Africa’s financial assets, with investors warning that bringing the EFF or the MKP into government would trigger capital flight.
More recently, increasing confidence in the GNU’s stability, alongside a well-received mid-term budget and the formal adoption of a 3% inflation target, has underwritten a sustained rally in the rand and government bonds.
Mashatile’s outreach to the DA has included a meeting with former DA chief Tony Leon in Cape Town in October. The two discussed “the future of the country,” Mashatile’s spokesman Keith Khoza said, declining to provide further details.
At the engagement, Mashatile sought to ease concerns about the ANC’s internal succession battle spilling into coalition politics, according to ANC and DA officials who declined to be identified because they’re not authorised to speak to the media.
The meeting between Leon and Mashatile at a restaurant in the affluent Cape Town suburb of Constantia was initiated by one of Mashatile’s family members and was also attended by the deputy president’s wife, Leon said in a phone interview. Leon led the DA from its inception in 2000 until 2007 and remains an influential figure in the party.
While Mashatile wasn’t explicit about what his intentions were, it was clear “he’s on some kind of outreach,” Leon said.
A follow-up meeting had been planned, but had to be scrapped because Mashatile needed to serve as acting president while Ramaphosa was on a trip abroad, he said.
Mashatile has also met other senior DA figures to discuss its participation in the coalition government, according to the DA and ANC officials.
While Mashatile’s engagements with the DA are evidence of the reportedly “special relationships” the ANC deputy leader has with members of the rival party, including Steenhuisen, “any DA leader can probably cultivate those kinds of relations,” said independent political analyst Susan Booysen.
Elective conference
Turbulence within the DA’s own leadership is complicating Mashatile’s efforts.
Party chief John Steenhuisen is expected to seek another term at the party’s elective conference in April. However, he faces intensifying internal pressure to step aside after becoming embroiled in an internal investigation over the alleged misuse of a party credit card, as well as a dispute with the axed Environment Minister, Dion George.
That’s according to three people in the DA, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal party deliberations.
Both Steenhuisen, who serves as Minister of Agriculture, and George have been barred from commenting publicly by the DA’s Federal Executive.
Mashatile’s allies are concerned Steenhuisen may not survive the internal ructions and see Cape Town Mayor Geordin Hill-Lewis as a potential future leader, the people said.
Hill-Lewis said that his impression was that Mashatile is someone the DA can work with in the coalition and that the ANC politician supports the GNU as a way to “keep destructive radical ideas out of government to give South Africa the best chance of growing prosperity.”
‘Transactional politician’
“From what I can observe, Mr Mashatile seems to operate mainly as a transactional politician,” Hill-Lewis said by text message.
“But even so, it does seem to me that he accepts the value of this basic premise and what it means for our country,” he added, while reiterating his stance that the next leader of the DA should not join the government.
Should Hill-Lewis become the DA leader, Mashatile’s camp is preparing to open talks to dissuade him from remaining outside the cabinet, people familiar with the matter said.
Mashatile’s manoeuvring reflects a broader calculation within the ANC that Ramaphosa may not serve out his term and potentially step down as president of the country before the next national election in 2029.
Ramaphosa’s tenure as party president ends in 2027, when its next elective conference takes place, and it’s a tradition within the ANC for the outgoing leader to make way for their successor in government to avoid there being two centres of power.
The president has told allies he believes a faction of senior ANC figures is working to force an early transition, people familiar with the matter said.
Ramaphosa confronted the group during a closed meeting of the party’s top leaders last month, challenging them to oppose him openly.
A meeting of the ANC’s National General Council this week to review the party’s progress on policy objectives was an opportunity for prospective ANC leaders to position themselves.
In addition to Mashatile, candidates to succeed Ramaphosa include ANC Secretary-General Fikile Mbalula, Speaker of Parliament Thoko Didiza and Electricity Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa.
While Mashatile is the “prohibitive front-runner,” the process to become the next ANC party leader will be “deeply, deeply competitive,” said Ziyanda Stuurman, a Cape Town-based geopolitical risk analyst and adviser at Africa Practice.
An obstacle to Mashatile’s candidacy is that he’s faced multiple allegations of corruption. While he’s denied the claims and hasn’t been charged with any wrongdoing, they evoke memories of the scandals and economic drift associated with former President Jacob Zuma’s tenure, when state graft became endemic.
Leon, who was involved in the negotiations that led to the formation of the coalition government, said that the DA should be open-minded about working with Mashatile.
The party should also work to ensure the agreement that underpins the coalition government has “iron-clad commitments” that build on the so-called statement of intent that led to the creation of the alliance.
“If you can get those operationalised, you should stay in,” Leon said. “If you can’t, you should reconsider.”
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