Africa-Press – South-Africa. Rising house prices, declining affordability and structural barriers are driving young South Africans out of the property market, which is causing a shift toward long-term renting and growing generational wealth inequality.
This is according to Lightstone Property, which analysed data from 2014 to 2025 and found that residential house prices have risen quickest in percentage terms in the lower price bands over the last ten years.
The gap between the higher and lower bands has widened. At the same time, homeownership among younger buyers has declined.
Lightstone managing executive Hayley Ivins-Downes said their analysis confirmed that property volumes have drifted downwards while prices have escalated most significantly in the higher price bands.
“Perhaps most revealing – and worrying – is the decline of buyers between the ages of 18 and 35, both in percentage terms from 40% to 30% but also in absolute numbers from 72,000 in 2014 to 47,000 in 2025,” she said.
In fact, economists and policymakers have increasingly described this as a structural affordability problem rather than a temporary cycle.
This sentiment has even been echoed by institutions such as the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and the International Monetary Fund.
Ivins-Downes said there are several reasons behind the drop in younger buyers, including lifestyle changes, house prices rising faster than wages, large deposit requirements, and higher student debt.
Stricter mortgage rules following the 2008 global financial crisis, and, in some cases, a lack of confidence in government or in the future, have further contributed to this decline.
According to Ivins-Downes, a transfer of wealth from younger to older generations is implicit in this shift in the property market.
“We are seeing that the younger people rent from older people, often paying higher proportions of their income for housing. In the process, housing wealth has shifted towards older generations,” she said.
Age distribution of natural buyers: 2014 – 2025
Consequences of pushing young buyers out of the market
If this continues, several structural outcomes are likely. A permanent renter class may emerge as homeownership is delayed or unattainable for many younger households.
As a result, Lightstone explained that large institutional landlords may decide to expand or emerge where they do not exist.
With younger people pushed out of the property market, South Africa may also see slower household formation as young people move out later and delay having children.
This already appears to be happening in several countries. For example, in Greece, Australia, South Korea, Japan, and Italy, the average age of first-time mothers now exceeds 30 years.
Lightstone noted that there may also be increased political pressure and policy intervention as housing affordability becomes a major political issue.
Possible responses could include rent controls, large-scale housing construction, taxes on investors, and inheritance taxes on housing wealth.
There have already been growing calls for rent control in cities like Cape Town, where rising rents have driven lower- and middle-income households out of in-demand areas. However, Mayor Geordin Hill-Lewis has dismissed the idea.
He explained that the only solution to the city’s housing crisis is either to decrease demand, which would be undesirable, or increase supply. “The proposal to cap rental prices is an emotionally satisfying argument,” he said.
“But it is also wrong. And not just theoretically wrong, but demonstrably, repeatedly, historically wrong. This has been proven in every city that has tried to price-control its way out of housing scarcity.”
Another consequence of the rising age of first-time homebuyers is that the long-term demand for housing markets will also be affected.
Ironically, Lightstone pointed out that if young buyers never enter the market, future housing demand will likely weaken.
Housing markets historically rely on first-time buyers moving up the ladder. If the ladder breaks, transaction volumes will fall, and prices will become dependent on wealth transfers, such as inheritance and family help.
Number of properties bought by 18-35 year olds: 2014 – 2025
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