{"id":10486,"date":"2021-05-17T16:00:14","date_gmt":"2021-05-17T16:00:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/?p=10486"},"modified":"2021-05-17T15:44:30","modified_gmt":"2021-05-17T15:44:30","slug":"sarb-is-expected-to-keep-rates-on-hold-this-week","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/sarb-is-expected-to-keep-rates-on-hold-this-week","title":{"rendered":"SARB is expected to keep rates on hold this week"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"color: #ff6600\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/\">Africa-Press<\/a> &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\">South-Africa<\/a>. <\/strong><\/span>JOHANNESBURG &#8211; THE SOUTH African Reserve Bank (SARB) is expected to keep interest rates steady at 3.5 percent as the stronger rand and high commodity prices are supporting the economy amid accelerating consumer prices.<\/p>\n<p>The SARB\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will meet this week for the third time since the beginning of the year to determine the bank\u2019s monetary policy.<\/p>\n<p>The rand has strengthened significantly since the beginning of the year, while commodity prices such as copper and iron ore have experienced double-digit growth.<\/p>\n<p>In the previous meeting, the MPC unanimously decided to leave rates unchanged, but warned that its implied policy rate path indicated an increase of 25 basis points in each of the second and fourth quarters of 2021.<\/p>\n<p>Investec economist Kamilla Kaplan on Friday said they expected the SARB to keep the repo rate on hold, despite the estimated increase in consumer price inflation (CPI) in the coming months. The bank\u2019s CPI forecast for 2021 is higher at 4.3 percent, but still between the 3 to 6 percent target range.<\/p>\n<p>Kaplan said higher rates of inflation were not unique to South Africa, with consumer inflation set to rise globally on the base effects in the annual inflation measures. She said the SARB could be expected to look past this and reaffirm that the risks to the inflation outlook were balanced in view of the well-contained demand pressures.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe recovery in economic growth to \u2019pre-pandemic output levels will take time\u2019 according to the SARB,\u201d Kaplan said. \u201cAgainst this backdrop maintaining the repo rate at current levels would be an appropriate policy stance.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Investec only expects the repo rate to rise by 25 basis points in November.<\/p>\n<p>In March, the SARB said the rand remained below its estimated long-run equilibrium value in spite of generally favourable global conditions and considerable rand appreciation. It said the implied starting point for the rand forecast was R14.96 to the dollar.<\/p>\n<p>But the rand has appreciated by at least 6 percent since the beginning of the year, breaking below the R14 mark to the dollar last week after having weakened to R15.54 to the greenback in March.<\/p>\n<p>Anchor Capital\u2019s co-chief investment officer Nolan Wapenaar said a confluence of factors were currently providing support to the rand. Wapenaar said a R14.50 to R15 against the dollar exchange rate was a reasonable range for the rand, in line with their purchasing power parity model to determine the fair value exchange rate.<\/p>\n<p>He said the current confluence of US labour data, commodity prices rally, and Moody\u2019s skipping South Africa\u2019s rating, also meant that the pressure on the rand was to trade stronger than the implied fair range over the near term.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt appears to us that the rand is poised to break convincingly stronger than R14\/$1 at some point,\u201d Wapenaar said. \u201cIn the long run, we believe that this is a good level at which to externalise some wealth, although we also expect that the rand may remain stronger than our fair value for a protracted period.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>[email protected]<\/p>\n<p><b>BUSINESS REPORT<\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Africa-Press &#8211; South-Africa. JOHANNESBURG &#8211; THE SOUTH African Reserve Bank (SARB) is expected to keep interest rates steady at 3.5 percent as the stronger rand and high commodity prices are supporting the economy amid accelerating consumer prices. The SARB\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will meet this week for the third time since the beginning of [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":84,"featured_media":10485,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,5,8],"tags":[274,315,275],"class_list":["post-10486","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-all-news","category-economy","category-homepage-english","tag-africa-press","tag-africa-press-south-africa","tag-south-africa-2"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.1 (Yoast SEO v27.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>SARB is expected to keep rates on hold this week - South Africa<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"JOHANNESBURG - THE SOUTH African Reserve Bank (SARB) is expected to keep interest rates steady at 3.5 percent as the str ...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.africa-press.net\/south-africa\/all-news\/sarb-is-expected-to-keep-rates-on-hold-this-week\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"SARB is expected to keep rates on hold this week\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"JOHANNESBURG - 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